Hail Colombia!

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Over the years, I’ve learned that my first reaction to something is usually not my best, so I will save comments on Canada, Mexico, and China until next week. This week, I want to comment on the disaster of the previous weekend—what will no doubt be known as the Colombia tariff fiasco. I initially rewrote last week’s column to address it and then had to put it back the way it was late Sunday night when Trump backed off his threat. This episode was an annoying but instructive effort to understand what to expect for the next four years. Here are a few lessons, which will come in handy, as this episode is likely to be repeated—frequently.

First, it was proof we are once again on a four-year rollercoaster ride that appears to be deliberate. Trump thrives on chaos and keeping his adversaries off balance and discounts the effect that has on increasing business uncertainty, if not panic.

Second, if you thought the new crew of administration officials was going to be more competent than the last bunch, think again. They may be less divided internally, but they are making the same process mistakes that plagued his first term. The United States is a rule-of-law, process-heavy country. We do things by the book, and it’s a lengthy, detailed book. Trump officials, either out of ignorance or design, simply ignore required legal processes. The best recent examples are terminating the inspectors general (IG) without the legally required 30 days’ notice to Congress, and the attempted freeze of most government programs, which rode roughshod over more laws and regulations than I can count, and which he was ultimately forced to withdraw.

Most of his moves will be tested in court, which Trump welcomes since he believes the underlying laws are unconstitutional, but some cases, like the IG firings, can be chalked up to simple incompetence. In those cases, he can get what he wants if he follows the rules, but that seems to be a foreign concept.

Third, in normal times, the Colombia issue was something that could have been solved by low-level diplomats in both countries getting on the phone. There is a long-standing agreement between Colombia and the United States on the handling of deportees. The Colombian president apparently took umbrage at the way the deportees were being treated, including being flown on military planes, which was a change in procedure that appears not to have been notified to the Colombian government. President Gustavo Petro, having a Trump-like moment, abruptly refused to accept the deportees, in turn prompting an actual Trump moment in response—threats of tariffs and other sanctions.

The fault here appears to be on both sides, with both presidents overreacting to a deviation from normal procedure that could have been settled at a lower level if either of them had wanted to do that. There are reasons why countries have embassies and ambassadors, and this is one of them.

Fourth, Trump once again demonstrated his willingness to bully smaller countries and his ability to get away with it precisely because they are smaller. To be fair, he was put in an awkward position by President Petro. Had he done nothing, other countries that are also receiving deportees might be tempted to resist as well. The danger here for Trump is hubris. He clearly believes that because the United States is big and a large market for these smaller economies, he can push them around. That is why he prefers bilateral negotiations to multilateral ones where the others could potentially gang up on him. However, his oft-expressed view that other countries need us more than we need them is shortsighted and wrong. It’s easy to dismiss Colombia’s importance as a trading partner, though if you were buying your significant other Valentine’s Day flowers or stopping for a cup of coffee on your way into the office, you would certainly discover they make a difference. In the case of Canada, as another example, Trump may say we don’t need their oil, but they are our largest suppliers of uranium, aluminum, and nickel. A 25 percent tariff would add $11.75 billion to our costs of those items, according to a recent CSIS commentary.

In the long run, Trump’s actions are a gift to China. By attacking our long-time friends and trading partners—we actually have a trade surplus with Colombia—he teaches them that the United States is an unreliable partner and that they would be wise to diversify their relationships. Just as companies are derisking from China, we are going to see countries derisking from the United States as Trump increases the risk of doing business with us. In the case of Colombia, China is already its second-largest trading partner, and you can be sure China will not waste any time taking advantage of what Trump has done.

William Reinsch is senior adviser for the Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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William Alan Reinsch
Senior Adviser, Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business