Hardening Positions over Dangerous Grounds: Recent Developments in the South China Sea Dispute

In the first six months of 2011, tensions generated by territorial and maritime boundary disputes in the South China escalated to a point not seen since the end of the Cold War, surpassing even the 1995 Sino-Philippine crisis over Mischief Reef. This troubling state of affairs has been provoked by a combination of factors, including increasing competition over maritime resources (principally crude oil, natural gas and fish) and because the claimant countries appear more determined than ever to assert their sovereignty and sovereign rights claims. Meanwhile, as regional states modernize their armed forces and strengthen their garrisons on occupied islets, negotiations between ASEAN and China to implement confidence building measures (CBMs) contained in the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC) have lost traction, possibly rendering the agreement inutile. Moreover, the emerging geopolitical competition between the United States and China in Southeast Asia, especially in the maritime domain, has further complicated the dispute. While all parties have emphasized their commitment to peace and stability in the South China Sea the three principal protagonists ―China, Vietnam, and the Philippines― have hardened their positions. Most worryingly, Beijing’s increasingly aggressive tactics are exacerbating tensions and fueling instability, significantly raising the risk of an armed confrontation at sea either by accident or design. This paper assesses recent developments in the South China Sea and the positions of the three major players: China, Southeast Asia, and the United States.