The Iraq War

May 6, 2008

The Iraq War is an extremely complex conflict, and one where the overall trends and developments are difficult to track with any clarity. The Burke Chair has developed a detailed briefing on key developments in the fighting, drawing on material provided by the Multinational Force- Iraq (MNF-I), the Department of Defense, Department of State, Iraqi government, and other sources.

The briefing surveys sectarian and ethnic trends, progress in political accommodation, developments in the fighting, and trends in casualties. Maps show the steady decline in Al Qa’ida capabilities since mid-2007, but also the broader problems in sectarian and ethnic tensions and conflicts. Breakouts are provided on the trends in the fighting in Anbar and Baghdad. Polling data developed by ABC shows how Iraqis view these issues by sect and ethnicity.

An overview is provided of the impact of the surge, its successes and failures, and its impact on Iraq public opinion. There is also an assessment of Iraqi perceptions of US forces, with separate breakouts addressing views of the surge and whether and how long the US should stay.

Data are provided on the trends in Iraqi force development, their funding, and MNF-I assessments of their effectiveness. Maps and charts are also provided on the transfer of given areas to Iraqi security responsibility.

Trend and polling data are provided on developments in the Iraqi economy and the size and impact of aid efforts. These data include analyses of oil exports and export revenues, trends in power generation, and Iraqi attitudes towards the economy and aid. An updated break out is provided of past and current US aid efforts, as well as total aid and Iraqi government expenditures.

This is a working draft and will be steadily updated over time. Suggested additions and corrections will be gratefully received and should be sent to Adam Mausner at amausner@csis.org.