The Iraq War After Five Years

March 18, 2008

The attached briefing summarizes the latest US government, Iraqi government, and MNF-I data on the fighting. The maps and charts reflect major progress in defeating Al Qa'ida in Iraq, and in reducing the levels of violence throughout the country. If this victory can be consolidated in Ninewa, Mosul, and the other remaining areas where Al Qa'ida is now concentrating, the key source of civil conflict in Iraq will be largely eliminated.

At the same time, the data in this brief also show why General Petraeus and other senior commanders warn that the victories to date do buy time for political and economic solutions, but cannot "win" the war. As Ambassador Crocker, General Petraeus and others have repeatedly warned, there are still serious levels of violence in Baghdad and throughout Iraq. These can still surge back into more violent fighting unless Iraq makes far more rapid progress in development, and couples this progress to major advances in governance and development at the national, provincial, and local levels.

If there is any clear message that comes out of the data shown in the attached briefing, it is that victory -- in the sense of creating a relatively stable and secure Iraq that has a high degree of pluralism -- is possible, but not yet probable. The level of military victory to date is still limited, and Al Qa'ida will be able to carry out suicide bombings and major acts of destabilizing terrorism for at least several years to come. Real stability and security is dependent on a wide range of further progress that will probably not be completed until the end of the next Administration in the US, and only after successful and open national, provincial, and local elections in Iraq.