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Today Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected Ishiba Shigeru as its new leader, with a parliamentary vote set for October 1 to officially appoint Ishiba as the new prime minister. Ishiba prevailed over eight other candidates in a contested leadership race after Kishida Fumio chose not to seek reelection after nearly three years in office. Once appointed, Ishiba may call for a general election in the coming weeks to secure a fresh mandate for the LDP, which needs to regain the trust of voters following a political fundraising scandal in recent months. While the new administration is expected to focus on domestic issues such as economic revitalization and political reform, this transition will likely not affect Japan’s foreign policy agenda, which is based fundamentally on a strong alliance with the United States.
Q1: What happened in the LDP election?
A1: The LDP’s 368 lawmakers in the Diet (Japan’s parliament) each had one vote, and 368 additional votes were allotted proportionally based on voting by rank-and-file party members across the country. In the first round, economic security minister Takaichi Sanae, a conservative who aimed to become Japan’s first female prime minister, led with 181 votes, followed by Ishiba (154 votes) and former environment minister Koizumi Shinjiro (136 votes). Takaichi and Ishiba then advanced to a runoff comprised of votes by LDP Diet members and local party chapters in each of Japan’s 47 prefectures. Ishiba defeated Takaichi by a margin of 21 votes to claim victory.
Ishiba, a veteran politician with over three decades of experience including several cabinet posts, ran for the fifth time and finally prevailed despite being relatively unpopular among his fellow Diet members for bluntly criticizing government policy and having left the party at one point earlier in his career. His victory suggests that LDP members concluded he is best suited to connect with voters—Ishiba consistently scored at or near the top in public opinion polls leading up to the election—and improve the reputation of the LDP.
Q2: What are Ishiba’s policy priorities?
A2: Ishiba was elected to the Diet in 1986 at age 29 and earned a reputation as a defense policy expert. He has held key positions, including minister of defense, LDP secretary-general, and minister of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries over the course of his career. Under his campaign platform titled “Safety and Security for All,” Ishiba outlined initiatives to revitalize rural areas through improved information sharing and encouraging businesses to establish operations outside of major cities. He also suggested there is room to increase corporate taxes for public investments in the domestic economy including support for small and medium enterprises. Another key proposal is to create a disaster response agency to improve recovery efforts in the disaster-prone nation. Ishiba also seeks to promote debate on revising the constitution to clarify the role of Japan’s military. Deterrence is a major theme in his national security policy platform, and he will be charged with implementing an ambitious defense procurement plan unveiled by Kishida in 2022 to increase defense spending and investments in advanced capabilities. Ishiba also called for the creation of a NATO-style security arrangement in Asia, a proposal that has not been warmly received in Washington but nonetheless reveals an instinct to further security cooperation with the United States and other like-minded partners. Ishiba supports Taiwan and visited Taipei last month emphasizing that deterrence is the key to maintaining regional peace. He also suggested establishing liaison offices in Tokyo and Pyongyang to facilitate negotiations with North Korea on the return of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s. (North Korea admitted to the abductions in 2002, and 5 of 17 victims returned to Japan that year, but the others remain unaccounted for.)
Q3: What happens next?
A3: The Diet will reconvene on October 1 to formally appoint the prime minister. Ishiba will then form his cabinet and outline the government’s agenda in a policy speech to the Diet.
While attention now turns to the timing of a potential snap election, Ishiba has underscored the importance of parliamentary debate on key policy issues as a prerequisite, suggesting he may not rush to the polls. Nonetheless, the election must take place before fall 2025 when the current legislative term expires, placing pressure on the new government to articulate a policy agenda—especially an economic growth strategy—that resonates with the public.
The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), held a leadership election on September 23 and appointed Noda Yoshihiko to challenge the LDP. Noda is an experienced lawmaker who served as prime minister from 2011 to 2012 and reportedly seeks to steer the traditionally progressive policy agenda of the CDP in a more conservative direction to compete more effectively in the next national election. However, opinion polls consistently show that the public continues to favor the LDP despite the recent fundraising scandal, which explains the drumbeat for a snap election to reestablish the LDP’s political footing. (Media reports suggest the election could take place on October 27 or November 10.)
Q4: What are the implications for the United States?
A4: Ishiba referenced the U.S.-Japan alliance during the campaign, including proposals to revise the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) governing the U.S. military presence in Japan, and he could push the envelope to address what he considers an asymmetry in the bilateral alliance. His long-standing support for initiatives aimed at strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities and its industrial base could suggest an instinct to reduce reliance on the United States for Japan’s security. But the reality of a rapidly deteriorating security environment marked by threats from China, North Korea, and Russia favors continuity in Japan’s strategic trajectory based on acquiring advanced defense capabilities, strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance, and working together with other like-minded countries. Japan’s political transition could signal momentum for political reform, but dramatic changes in national security and foreign policy are unlikely.
Nicholas Szechenyi is vice president of the geopolitics and foreign policy department and senior fellow with the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Yuko Nakano is a fellow with the Japan Chair and associate director of the U.S.-Japan Strategic Leadership Program at CSIS.
