ISP Brief August 2017
August 31, 2017
International Security Program
It's our pleasure to send you the August Edition of the ISP Brief, the monthly newsletter of the CSIS International Security Program. ISP Brief features articles and commentary written by our scholars, their analysis as published in various media sources (including video and audio highlights), and links to recent events. We hope the newsletter provides you, our readers, a snapshot of the excellent work underway in ISP, and the engaging thoughts of our experts. As always, your feedback is welcome.
August 16, 2017
Alice Hunt Friend, senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discusses how personnel changes in the White House could impact the concept of “civilian control” of the military.
August 2, 2017
Tom Karako, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Program and senior fellow in its International Security Program, discusses North Korea’s most recent intercontinental ballistic missile test, its implications for US and Asian-Pacific security, and the Pentagon’s most recent Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) test.
August 1, 2017
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW
Check out the Latest on Defense360 :
READ "Reorganizing the Defense Acquisition System" by Andrew Hunter and Rhys McCormick.
READ "History is Back!" by Mark Moyar, American Greatness.
READ "It’s Long Past Time to Rethink US Military Posture in the Gulf" by Melissa Dalton and Mara Karlin, Defense One.
READ "Authority to Change: Existing Tools Can Provide Innovation and Accountability in Defense Acquisition" by Camron Gorguinpour, CSIS.
READ "Reorganizing the Defense Acquisition System" by Rhys McCormick and Andrew Hunter, CSIS.
READ "Israel and the Kurds: Two Independence Movements 70 Years Apart" by Mark Cancian and Mathew Cancian, Washington Kurdish Institute.
READ "Can the U.S. defend itself against North Korea’s missile threat?" by Tom Karako, PBS Newshour.
READ "Contractors in Afghanistan: What Erik Prince Gets Right" by Mark Cancian, Breaking Defense.
READ "Long Wars and Industrial Mobilization: It won't be World War II Again" by Mark Cancian, War on the Rocks.
READ "More distributed operating concepts needed for US Army air and missile defense" by Tom Karako, Defense News.
READ "Modernization: Army Leadership Must Seize Initiative" by Andrew Hunter and Rhys McCormick, Breaking Defense.
READ "When should the President use Nuclear Weapons?" by Rebecca Hersman, War on the Rocks.
READ "This is not the NATO you're looking for: A practical vision for Arab and Asian security networks" by Melissa Dalton and Lindsey Ford, War on the Rocks.
READ "Korean War 2.0? The Signs To Watch" by Mark Cancian, Breaking Defense.
READ "How to Get Rid of Nuclear Weapons" by Sharon Squassoni, Teen Vogue.
READ "How to Deal with Authoritarianism inside NATO" by Lisa Sawyer Samp, War on the Rocks.
READ "How to Improve Return on Investment for Security Assistance" by Melissa Dalton and Stephen Tankel, Lawfare.
WATCH - Kathleen Hicks at Chautauqua Institution speaking on the state of geopolitics today.
LISTEN - Andrew Hunter on Federal News Radio, "What AT&L reorg means for Defense acquisition"
WATCH - Todd Harrison and Tom Karako in CSIS Missile Defense, "How it Works: Detecting a North Korean Missile Strike on Guam"
LISTEN - Todd Harrison on Federal News Radio, "OPM still not implementing some governmentwide data requirements"
LISTEN - Beverly Kirk, AT&T Vice President Jill Singer and Denise Zheng discuss "The Internet of Things and the Cost of Privacy" on the CSIS Smart Women, Smart Power Podcast.
LISTEN - Beverly Kirk and Lt. General Stayce Harris discuss "Leadership, STEM Education, and Breaking Barriers" on the CSIS Smart Women, Smart Power Podcast.
LISTEN - Tom Karako on WBBM News Radio, "US vs. North Korea, Blue Apron Earnings & Retail"
LISTEN - Alice Hunt Friend on Deep State Radio, "This Week In Apocalypse: Nazis, The KKK, and Nuclear War!"
LISTEN - Alice Hunt Friend on Deep State Radio, "A Nuke in Every Pot"
WATCH - Tom Karako on Government Executive in "Defense Dialogues: The Future of Missile Defense"
LISTEN - Kathleen Hicks discusses "Why National Security Strategies Matter" on the podcast -- Building the Future: Freedom, Prosperity, and Foreign Policy with Dan Runde.
How to Organize Military Space
September 6, 2017
9:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW
Cyber Warfare in the Maritime Domain
September 14, 2017
10:00 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW
Debate: Future of the INF Treaty
September 27, 2017
4:30 p.m. - 6:00 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW
Global Hotspots and Security Challenges: A Conversation with Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA)
September 29, 2017
9:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
PONI 2017 Fall Conference
October 11, 2017 - October 12, 2017
9:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
Barksdale Air Force Base
"Iran has already harvested a great many of the benefits of the deal already." - Tom Karako in CNBC on August 25, 2017.
"The lowest it could possibly be is the budget caps. That's the default if all else fails. I've not heard anything on what a broader budget deal looks like. It remains a mystery." - Todd Harrison in CNN Politics on August 25, 2017.
"North Korea will have to improve the accuracy of its missiles if it wishes to reliably hit smaller targets, such as military bases." - Ian Williams in Daily Mail on August 23, 2017.
“We have been five years away from lasers for the past 30 years ... [f]or the immediate future we are going to see chemically powered rockets kill other chemically powered rockets.” - Tom Karako in Aerospace America on August 23, 2017.
"[I] t would probably be insufficient to reliably take out a hardened target like a military installation." - Ian Williams in New York Times on August 22, 2017.
"The goal advanced in the letter… is not something that a simple UN ban can completely prevent," he said. "In addition to the fact that some states are likely to ignore such a policy, it is no easy thing to define the kind of autonomy you are trying to ban." - Andrew Hunter in FCW on August 22, 2017.
"Less than 10 percent of our military satellite communications capacity is protected against jamming." - Todd Harrison in Washington Examiner on August 17, 2017.
“It’s very difficult to know exactly what capabilities North Korea can field because the United States must rely on remote monitoring technology like satellite imagery.” - Sharon Squassoni in MauiTime on August 16, 2017.
"I interpreted that statement to mean, to be a reference to the constant state of readiness of US forces.” - Ian Williams in News Channel 9 on August 14, 2017.
"Missile experts do not believe North Korea has developed decoy missiles designed to throw interceptors off the track." - Ian Williams in USA Today on August 14, 2017.
“It’ll drive the Russians bananas.” - Tom Karako in Breaking Defense on August 14, 2017.
“It’s not clear if, when or by how much the BCA caps will be lifted. There’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the FY 18 [outcome] because of this. Since the BCA went into effect we haven’t seen such a big disparity between the caps, what the president has proposed and what Congress is proposing.” - Todd Harrison in National Defense on August 14, 2017.
"The Army has some critical needs to modernize because of the evolving threat, driven largely by Russia. If it can clearly explain its needs and how the modernization priorities help address that threat, I think they can be pretty successful both within the Defense Department and Congress at getting additional modernization money." - Andrew Hunter in Business Insider on August 11. 2017.
“When it comes to Congress’s ability to intervene, it’s [the laws governing presidential orders of nuclear weapons use] exactly the same as it would be for any other situation on proposed use of force.” - Rebecca Hersman in The Daily Gazette on August 11, 2017.
“There’s always some degree of readiness, but in the face of these indications and warnings that North Korea is communicating deliberately, we’re going to no doubt have an even higher condition of readiness.” - Tom Karako in Bloomberg Politics, and Herald Scotland on August 11, 2017.
"The bottom line is this is a signal to the folks on the Hill... [f]rankly, the President is pointing to what everybody kind of knows—it's got a lot of steam behind it." - Tom Karako in CNN Politics on August 11, 2017.
"DIUx deserves more time and resources, considering it’s made “substantial progress” after initial confusion over its mission and pushback from traditional defense contractors prompted an overhaul less than a year in." - Andrew Hunter in Defense News, The New York Times, ABC News, The Seattle Times, and Star Tribune on August 11, 2017.
“Obviously, these changes take time. You can’t do much in six or seven months.” - Todd Harrison in Norwich Bulletin and News India Times on August 10, 2017.
“Right now you can hear the screws turning on Aegis ships steaming somewhere between North Korea and Guam.” - Tom Karako in Foreign Policy on August 10, 2017.
“Clearly this was not, literally, his first order … and nothing has changed in the nuclear arsenal...[t]o be fair, even if he wanted to make changes nothing would have changed by now.” - Todd Harrison in FactCheck.org on August 10, 2017.
"To be clear, efforts to modernize America’s nuclear arsenal were long underway before Trump took office and are years from completion. Its nuclear arsenal has actually shrunk over the last seven months to meet the conditions of New START, the strategic arms reduction treaty." - Todd Harrison in Navy Times and Army Times on August 9, 2017.
"Most military communications satellites are vulnerable to jamming." - Todd Harrison in Citizen Tribune on August 9, 2017.
"There has been no significant change in nuclear modernization plans under Mr. Trump." - Todd Harrison in The New York Times,Newburgh Gazette, and AliveForFootball on August 9, 2017.
“Nothing has changed with our nuclear warheads or bombs in any significant way that makes them more powerful." - Todd Harrison in Bloomberg Politics,The Straits Times and Express Newsline on August 9, 2017.
"[Nuclear weapons] exist to protect us from catastrophe. Their role in the world is to prevent their use and to deter their use... [y]ou need the president to be able to react responsibly and quickly.” - Rebecca Hersman in The Washington Post, and Heavy on August 9, 2017.
“We can’t fight without fighting through space. When we put a bomb on a target somewhere in the world, did that bomb come from space? Not physically, but the bomb would not have gotten there without our space capabilities. So it is a space-enabled bomb.” - Todd Harrison in The Atlantic on August 8, 2107.
"A likely path is Congress coming to a last-minute deal in December that lumps together the debt ceiling and federal spending, with statutory budget caps eased for the defense and non-defense sides of the 2018 budget." - Todd Harrison in Defense News on August 8, 2107.
“They were given the task to split the baby and they did it in a very thoughtful and efficient way. The two are internally coherent, and I think this [is] as good a first draft of this as anyone could have done.” - Andrew Hunter in Defense News on August 7, 2017.
“Just adding a new deputy chief of staff … doesn’t increase funding on its own. What it does do is it puts an advocate at a higher level during budget discussions, which is likely to help protect space funding [from cuts] … but it doesn’t really add funding.” - Todd Harrison in National Defense on August 7, 2017.
“We need to grow and outpace the threat along with it.” - Tom Karako in Defense News on August 6, 2017.
"The Army has been trying to modernize its missile defense and acquire a 360-degree radar since the mid-1990s, a quarter century, and still has not procured anything even though industry has developed and successfully tested such radars." - Tom Karako in Defense News on August 6, 2017.
"The leaked calls [of President Trump speaking with foreign heads of state] were 'not catastrophic'." - Kathleen Hicks in Star Tribune on August 5, 2017.
"While there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the exact state of North Korea’s nuclear program, defense officials have to assume this threat could manifest itself at any time." - Tom Karako in Huffington Post on August 4, 2017.
“MDA has become more of a combat-support agency and less of a material developer/R&D entity, and that has a risk." - Tom Karako in Defense News on August 3, 2017.
"You can't help but read the newspaper and see what North Korea is doing ... and ask are we postured well enough and will we remain sufficiently defended into the coming years should North Korea enter into serial production of these things." - Tom Karako in CNBC, and Real Clear Defense on August 3, 2017.
“It would be really odd for Congress to do this because this is effectively ceding its main power, which is the power of the purse.” - Todd Harrison in Federal News Radio on August 3, 2017.
“It’s a good time for the European military market in general.” - Mark Cancian in National Defense on August 2, 2017.
“Congress and the Defense Department’s leadership said, ‘Oh yeah, we’re willing to spend tens of billions of dollars to protect our troops from this threat.’ Five years before, the decision was not to devote any resources to meet this threat. People were aware that it was out there; what changed was their understanding of the odds that of it happening. The odds of North Korean launch against the United States are much higher than we would like them be.” - Andrew Hunter in Quartz on August 2, 2017.
"Current homeland missile defenses are too limited. Every test reduces fleet levels by one or two interceptors, which affects overall mission capability. This is compounded by a lack of spare parts and backup vehicles." - Tom Karako in National Defense on August 1, 2017.