ISP Brief February 2020

It's our pleasure to send you the February Edition of the ISP Brief, the monthly newsletter of the CSIS International Security Program. The ISP Brief features articles and commentary written by our scholars including analysis as published in various media sources (including video and audio highlights) and links to recent events. We hope the newsletter provides you, our readers, a snapshot of the excellent work underway in ISP and the engaging thoughts of our experts. As always, your feedback is welcome.

Featured

Discussion with the Secretaries of the U.S. Military Departments
Dr. Kathleen Hicks hosted the Secretaries of the U.S. Military Departments on February 21, 2020. Secretary of the Army Ryan McCarthy, Secretary of the Air Force Barbara Barrett, and Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly discussed the state of their services, defense strategy, and key initiatives in the FY 2021 budget and associated future years defense program.

Analysis of the FY 2020 Defense Budget and Its Implications for FY 2021 and Beyond
Todd Harrison and Seamus Daniels of the CSIS Defense Budget Analysis Program provide an in-depth assessment of national defense funding in FY 2020. The analysis discusses the budget’s alignment with the 2018 National Defense Strategy and compares the Administration's request for FY 2020 to the appropriations passed by Congress. The report also assesses the Department of Defense’s projections for future defense spending by title and by military department.
(Photo: U.S. NAVY PHOTO BY MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST 2ND CLASS MARKUS CASTANEDA)

What Is the Philippines-United States Visiting Forces Agreement, and Why Does It Matter?
On February 11, 2020, the Philippines announced it had given notice to the United States that it intended to withdraw from the Philippines-United States Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) between the two countries. In a new CSIS Critical Questions, John Schaus summarizes what the VFA is and why it matters.
(Photo: Department of Defense)

Decision-making and Technology Under the Nuclear Shadow
On February 18th, the Project on Nuclear Issues held a half-day conference that explored how decision-makers think about strategic situational awareness, emerging technologies, and risk in crises between nuclear-armed states. Featured experts included Dr. Robert Jervis, Dr. Peter W. Singer, Avril Haines, and ISP's Dr. Kathleen Hicks. The discussion covered both the theoretical aspect of decision-making in nuclear crises as well as the policy implications and recommendations for improving international security.

Marines on the Information Battlefield
USMC LtGen Lori Reynolds, Deputy Commandant for Information and Commander of the Marine Corps Forces Strategic Command joined an episode of the Smart Women, Smart Power podcast. She and host Beverly Kirk discussed how the Marines are improving their readiness for information warfare and adjusting their strategies for operation in the information environment. Listen on iTunes and Spotify .

ISP Spotlight

The application for PONI’s 2020 Mid-Career Cadre is now open. The PONI Mid-Career Cadre is a select group comprised of nuclear professionals who have been in the field for 5 or more years and demonstrate particular promise for developing expertise and moving into leadership positions. Mid-Career members come from technical, policy, and military backgrounds, and work for organizations including the national laboratories, think tanks, NGOs, universities, and various federal agencies. Cadre members participate for three-year terms. Applications are due by March 31, click here to learn more and apply.

Publications

READ - "Getting to Less: The Truth About Defense Spending" by Kathleen Hicks

READ - "Key Takeaways from 'Under the Nuclear Shadow: Situational Awareness Technology and Crisis Decisionmaking'" by Rebecca Hersman, Reja Younis, Bryce Farabaugh, Bethany Goldblum, and Andrew Reddie

READ - "2021 Budget Spells the End of U.S. Force Expansion" by Mark Cancian and Adam Saxton

READ - "What to Look for in the FY 2021 Defense Budget Request" by Seamus Daniels, Mark Cancian, Andrew Hunter, Thomas Karako, Wes Rumbaugh, and Todd Harrison

READ - "Getting to Less? The Minimal Exposure Strategy" by Kathleen Hicks, Joseph Federici, Seamus Daniels, Rhys McCormick, and Lindsey Sheppard

READ - "Uncomfortable Lessons: Reassessing Iran's Missile Attack" by Ian Williams

READ - "What America Can Learn From Its Mistakes In Syria" by Daphne McCurdy

READ - "The Future of War: Less Fantastic, More Practical" by Lindsey Sheppard

Multimedia

LISTEN - On the Defense 2020 podcast, host Kathleen Hicks moderates a discussion on the major debates surrounding U.S. overseas military forces with Susanna Blume (CNAS), Zack Cooper (AEI), and Dave Ochmanek (RAND). Listen to Part 1 and Part 2 on iTunes, Spotify, and Megaphone.

WATCH - Seth  Jones , director of the Transnational Threats Project joined CNN's The Lead with Jake Tapper to discuss the prospects for an enduring peace in Afghanistan.

WATCH - Iran's January 8 ballistic missile attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq was an unprecedented moment in U.S.-Iranian relations. Derived from government statements, media reports, and first-hand accounts, a new video from the Missile Defense Project depicts how the attack unfolded.

LISTEN - Andrew Hunter, director of the Defense-Industrial Initiatves Group, joined Vermont Public Radio to discuss a new Pentagon assessment which found the F-35 has several deficiencies, even after $400 billion and nearly two decades in development.

WATCH - Senior adviser Mark Cancian joined Government Matters to discuss what the Navy's new plan for its future could entail. He also discussed what this means for the 355-ship fleet.

LISTEN - Alice Hunt Friend, senior fellow, joined the Net Assessment podcast to discuss the possible repeal of Authorizations of use of Military Force (AUMFs).

WATCH - Seamus Daniels, Defense Budget Analysis, joined Government Matters to discuss the FY 2021 defense budget request and how it aligns with the National Defense Strategy.

LISTEN - Commander Jeff Benson, USN, ISP military fellow, co-hosted an episode of the U.S. Naval Institute's Proceedings Podcast. The episode, "Live from USNA's Ship Selection Night" included interviews with future SWO midshipmen, ship reps, and VADM Jim Kilby (N9).

Upcoming Events

Leadership in the 21st Century: A Conversation with Four CIA Deputies
Hosted by Beverly Kirk
Monday, March 2, 2020
5:30 p.m. to 6:30 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW

Hacking Democracy: A Super Tuesday Kickoff with the Cyberspace Solarium Commission
Hosted by Suzanne Spaulding
Tuesday, March 3, 2020
8:00 a.m. - 10:15 a.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW

Strategic Implications of NASA's Moon to Mars Plan: A Conversation with NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine
Hosted by Todd Harrison
Thursday, March 5, 2020
11:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW

Army Air and Missile Defense
Hosted by Thomas Karako
Friday, March 13, 2020
9:30 a.m. - 11:45 a.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW

#1MillionArabWomen: The Dividends of Peace

A Conversation with HH Sheikha Intisar AlSabah of Kuwait Hosted by Nina Easton
Thursday, March 26, 2020
5:30 p.m. - 6:30 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW

In Case You Missed It

The Present and Future Promise of Synthetic Biology
Hosted by Morgan Dwyer and Andrew Hunter
Featured: Dr. Diane DiEuliis, Dr. Gigi Gronvall, and Dr. Jason Kelly
Thursday, February 6, 2020

Maritime Security Dialogue: An Update on the Second Fleet at Full Operational Capability
Hosted by Kathleen Hicks
Featured: Vice Admiral Andrew "Woody" Lewis, USN and VADM Pete Daly, USN (Ret.)
Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Media Highlights

"The good news is that most states, including the expected ‘battleground’ states, have paper ballots,” said Suzanne Spaulding, on the question of security in the 2020 election. “Americans need to understand how much progress has been made on securing the election and that there are processes in place to verify the results,” in The Washington Post on February 24, 2020.

On the Malian government's struggle to control Islamist forces in the country, Alice Hunt Friend said, “What will be difficult is disentangling the dedicated Islamists from the indigenous groups seeking an autonomous region in the north... Their long-term goals do not necessarily overlap, and that will affect the details of negotiations in ways that could lead to a stalemate," in VOA on February 23, 2020.

When discussing the need for a larger Army budget, Mark Cancian said, “A growing budget solves the dilemma, and Esper has signaled his support for larger budgets. Expect to see all the services pick up that refrain... Without more money, the Army will have to make an excruciating choice between a larger force and a modernized force," in Breaking Defense on February 18, 2020.

When discussing the expansion of U.S. homeland missile defense in the new defense budget, Thomas Karako said, "This is the single biggest muscle movement in the 2021 budget proposal, and Congress will be scrutinizing carefully whether the administration has a compelling vision and realistic funding stream for the short, medium and long term," in Aviation Week on February 18, 2020.

On the discovery that two Russian satellites have been following a multibillion-dollar U.S. spy satellite in space, Todd Harrison said, "There are a lot of things it could be doing. They could simply be practicing on-orbit maneuvers or signaling to the United States that they have this capability," in TIME on February 10, 2020.