ISP Brief June 2020

It's our pleasure to send you the June Edition of the ISP Brief, the monthly newsletter of the CSIS International Security Program. The ISP Brief features articles and commentary written by our scholars including analysis as published in various media sources (including video and audio highlights) and links to recent events. We hope the newsletter provides you, our readers, a snapshot of the excellent work underway in ISP and the engaging analysis of our experts. As always, your feedback is welcome.

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Featured

Thank You For Your Service: The State of the Union

In June, CSIS began its production of Thank You For Your Service. Hosted by Dr. Alice Friend of CSIS and Dr. Jim Golby of the Clements Center at the University of Texas-Austin, the podcast focuses on civil-military relations in the United States. Listen to the first episode, "The State of the Union" on Apple and Spotify.

Then, catch up on episode 2, "On Service" with guests Janine Davidson, Shawn Skelly, and Amy Schafer. Listen on Apple and Spotify

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The Escalating Terrorism Problem in the United States

The United States faces a growing terrorism problem that will likely worsen over the next year . Based on a CSIS data set of terrorist incidents, the most significant threat likely comes from white supremacists, though anarchists and religious extremists inspired by the Islamic State and al-Qaeda could present a potential threat as well. The latest brief from the Transnational Threats Project explains how the terrorist threat in the United States will likely rise over the rest of 2020. That assessment is based on several factors, including the November presidential election.

Missiles for Peace: A Path to a Durable Cease-Fire in Yemen

The Arab coalition’s intervention in Yemen, which was supposed to last just a few weeks is now in its sixth year. The Yemen conflict has resulted in more than a hundred thousand casualties, crushed the country’s already fragile economy, and repeatedly threatened mass starvation for millions of people. While peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are ongoing, various impediments remain. A new publication from the Missile Defense Project discusses how the limitations on Houthi missile capabilities will be a necessary component of any lasting peace.

Future Strategy Forum: Cooperation and Conflict in the Time of Covid-19

CSIS and the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) hosted the 2020 Future Strategy Forum: Cooperation and Conflict in the Time of Covid-19. The virtual conference featured a keynote discussion with Michèle Flournoy followed by three panels over three days exploring how Covid-19 will impact national security.

Watch all of the panels below:
Keynote with Michèle Flournoy moderated by Kathleen Hicks
Covid-19 and Grand Strategy moderated by Beverly Kirk
Covid-19 and the Military moderated by Alice Hunt Friend
Covid-19 and Democracy and Governance moderated by Suzanne Spaulding

Moscow’s Next Front: Russia’s Expanding Military Footprint in Libya

A new commentary from Brian Katz and Joe Bermudez discusses imagery analysis obtained by CSIS of Russian operations in Libya that indicates the breadth and depth of Russian involvement, as well as its limits in altering the conflict’s trajectory. Imagery released in late May by U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) displayed Russia’s deployment of at least 14 combat aircraft from bases in Russia and Syria to Libya’s Al Khadim and Al Jufra air bases. A closer examination of Russia’s deployment at Al Jufra Air Base reveals not only an expansion of Russian air activity but also of its ground forces.

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ISP Spotlight: Climate Smart Foreign Policy

In a new project, Climate Smart Foreign Policy, CSIS experts, including ISP Director Kathleen Hicks, address the intersection between climate change and foreign policy, finding new opportunities for the United States to lead and to advance U.S. interests through international engagement.

CSIS is developing a Center-wide initiative dedicated to the relationship between climate and foreign policy. Click here to learn more about the project.

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Publications

READ - "How National Security and Civic Education Must Address Racism" by Suzanne Spaulding

READ - "The U.S. Military's Second Coronavirus Wave May Be a Tsunami" by Mark Cancian

READ - "Party on the Bridge: Political Commissars in the Chinese Navy" by Jeff Benson and Zi Yang

READ - "Making Sense of the Debates Over FISA (Part One)" by Glenn Gerstell

READ - "Covid-19 Response Update: June 19-26" by Mark Cancian, Adam Saxton, and Nidal Morrison

READ - "Countering Missile Threats Means Addressing the Present While Planning for the Future" by Ian Williams

READ - "American ‘Battlespace’: The Military’s Reckoning With Racism and Politicization" by Alice Hunt Friend and Daniel E. White

READ - "Missiles for Peace: A Path to a Durable Cease-Fire in Yemen" by Ian Williams and Shaan Shaikh

READ - "The George Floyd Protests: A Global Rallying Cry for Democracy" by Samuel Brannen, Christian Stirling Haig, Habiba Ahmed, and Henry Newton

READ - "Lessons from Yemen’s Missile War" by Ian Williams and Shaan Shaikh

READ - "To Prevent the Next Pandemic, Global Spy Agencies Must Join Forces With the WHO" by Glenn Gerstell

READ - "Strength Abroad Begins with Healing and Unity at Home" - The Perspective of CSIS Scholars

READ - "Who Are Antifa, and Are They a Threat?" by Seth G. Jones

READ - "Sustaining Momentum: Seizing the Opportunity for SSR in Sudan" by Sarah Detzner

READ - "President Trump Has The Power To Call Out The Troops. He Shouldn’t Use It." by Mark Cancian

READ - "SHIPS! SHIPS! ALL WE NEED IS SHIPS!" by Jeff Benson and Mark McDonnell

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Multimedia

LISTEN - Beverly Kirk hosted Jennifer Klein and Rakeen Mabud of TIME’S UP and Rachel Vogelstein of the Council on Foreign Relations for a discussion on the global economic impact of Covid-19 on women. Listen on Apple and Spotify .

WATCH - Mark Cancian spoke with CQ Roll Call to discuss how the Navy is continuing to adjust to the changing landscape of the pandemic, including recommended workplace safety guidelines for its fleet.

WATCH - Defending Democratic Institutions Project director Suzanne Spaulding joined the Macdonald-Laurier Institute for a webinar bringing together experts to answer key questions about this flood of disinformation in the Covid era.

WATCH - Tom Karako joined defense and industry leaders for the virtual Defense One's Tech Summit to speak on a panel on "Technology at the Speed of Sound: Hypersonics in Defense Strategies."

LISTEN - The 2020 Future Strategy Forum panels were posted on the Smart Women, Smart Power podcast.

Check out the Keynote with Hon. Michèle Flournoy and the panel on Covid-19 and the Military . Subscribe to the podcast on Apple and Spotify.

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Combating Covid-19 Weekly Update

Given the rapid changes to information surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic, we've made it easier to track what is happening within DoD and the services. ISP's Mark Cancian and Adam Saxton provide timely updates on how DoD and the military are coping with Covid-19, including interactive charts on the total number of cases and Covid-19 developments within the Department and Services. You can keep up with their updates here.

Check out all of ISP's Covid-19 content on the Defense 360 website.

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Upcoming Events

Online Event: Main Street Defense Series - Bringing Innovation and Adaptability to the Fight with General Atomics’ David Alexander
Hosted by Andrew Hunter
Wednesday, July 1, 2020
1:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. ET

Online Event: Civics as a National Security Imperative: Addressing Racial Injustice (PART 1 OF 2)
Part 1: Racial Injustice as a National Security Threat
Hosted by Beverly Kirk
Wednesday, July 1, 2020
4:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET

Online Event: Civics as a National Security Imperative: Addressing Racial Injustice (PART 2 OF 2)
Part 2: The Role of Civics in Addressing Racial Injustice
Hosted by Suzanne Spaulding
Thursday, July 2, 2020
4:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET

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In Case You Missed It

Online Event: Party on the Bridge: Political Commissars in the Chinese Navy Hosted by Jeff Benson and Jude Blanchette
Featured guest: Zi Yang, Nanyang Technological University
Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Online Event: The Global Economic Impact of Covid-19 on Women
Hosted by Beverly Kirk
Featured guests: Jen Klein (TIME'S UP), Rakeen Mabud (TIME'S UP), Rachel Vogelstein (Council on Foreign Relations)
Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Online Event: Maritime Security Dialogue: The Role Of Unmanned and Small Combatants in Distributed Maritime Operations with RDML Casey J. Moton, USN
Hosted by Vice Admiral Peter H. Daly, USN (Ret.) and Kathleen Hicks
Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Online Event: Promoting and Protecting Innovation in the Bioeconomy
Hosted by Morgan Dwyer
Featured guests: Ian Watson (Department of Health and Human Services), Katie Rae (The Engine), Ed You (FBI)
Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Online Book Event: Exercise of Power: Secretary Robert M. Gates
Hosted by Seth G. Jones and John Hamre
Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Online Event: Book Talk on Shields of the Republic: The Triumph and Peril of America's Alliances with Mira Rapp-Hooper
Hosted by Kathleen Hicks
Monday, June 15, 2020

Online Event: The Military and Pandemics: Early Lessons and Future Actions
Hosted by Mark Cancian and Melanie Marlowe
Featured guests: Lt. Gen. David Barno, USA (Ret.), Nora Bensahel (Johns Hopkins University SAIS)
Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Online Event: Book Discussion: Burn-In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution with P.W. Singer
Hosted by Kathleen Hicks
Monday, June 15, 2020

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Media Highlights

On the Navy's 'unprecedented' 1600 reservists sent to shipyards as Covid-19 impacts the workforce, Andrew Hunter said he can’t recall any similar call-up, “and that’s despite the fact that the Navy has been dealing with a repair backlog for some time. In the past though, this backlog was driven by funding shortfalls rather than a shortage of workers. In that sense, it makes sense that the Navy is calling up a large number of reservists now,” he said in Breaking Defense on June 16, 2020.

“We haven't yet grappled with the implications of these private companies taking on roles that have traditionally been done by government,” said Suzanne Spaulding in The Washington Post on June 12, 2020. “We have constitutional safeguards that apply to the government that don't apply to the private sector. On the flip side, government has certain protections against liability that companies don't.”

“I think it’s a deeply unwise decision to try to deploy the active-duty military into what’s a politically divisive situation,” said Kathleen Hicks in The Wall Street Journal on June 3, 2020. For the military, rated as one of the country’s most trusted institutions for decades, the move would be risky. That reputation, she said, “is not guaranteed.”

“Mutual dependency actually makes for a pretty good working relationship,” Todd Harrison told The Verge on June 2, 2020. “By all accounts, everyone I’ve talked to at NASA has said that even as the geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia has deteriorated, their relationship — when it comes to the ISS — has remained as strong as ever.”

On June 1, the government of the Philippines notified the U.S. Embassy in Manila that it froze a February decision to withdraw from the Philippines-United States Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). "The U.S. just can't operate and engage very effectively if every single movement has to be approved," John Schaus told USNI News on June 2, 2020. "I think there was a realization that probably would be really bad for the Philippines, particularly as it's sorting out its territorial disputes with the Chinese."