ISP Brief October 2017
October 31, 2017
International Security Program
It's our pleasure to send you the Halloween Edition of the ISP Brief, which has a special treat this month -- photos of the International Security Program's entries in the CSIS Pumpkin Games. You'll see them featured between different sections of the newsletter. Happy Halloween!!!
The ISP Brief features articles and commentary written by our scholars, their analysis as published in various media sources (including video and audio highlights), and links to recent events. We hope the newsletter provides you, our readers, a snapshot of the excellent work underway in ISP, and the engaging thoughts of our experts. As always, your feedback is welcome.
Featured
Defining Our Relationship with India for the Next Century: An Address by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
October 18, 2017
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson delivered remarks on “Defining Our Relationship with India for the Next Century.”
Formulating National Security Strategy
October 10, 2017
CSIS released a new study called Formulating National Security Strategy: Past Experiences and Future Choices and held a panel discussion on strategy formulation in the Defense Department. The study, prepared for DOD and mandated by the Congress, identifies key choices for policymakers in constructing a strategy formulation process and makes recommendations on best practices based on analysis of previous processes. The Trump administration is now developing new defense and national security strategies.
Bringing the Air Force into its Centennial with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson
October 5, 2017
Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson discussed the challenges the U.S. Air Force will face over the next 30 years.The Air Force commemorated the 70th anniversary of its creation on September 18, 2017.
Check out the Latest on Defense360
READ "What the Continuing Resolution Means for Defense Spending in FY 2018" by Todd Harrison and Seamus Daniels.
ICBM launching from a silo - Aerospace Security Project and Defense Budget Analysis
Publications
READ "Don't Overlook the Kremlin's Threats to our Courts" by Suzanne Spaulding, The Washington Post.
READ "Through a fractured looking-glass: Trump's nuclear decisions so far" by Sharon Squassoni, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
READ "U.S. Military Forces in FY 2018" by Mark Cancian, CSIS.
READ "Clash of Strategies: Capability Or Capacity, Today Or Tomorrow?" by Mark Cancian, Breaking Defense.
READ "Now What? The American Citizen, World Order, and Building a New Foreign Policy Consensus" by Kathleen Hicks, Texas National Security Review.
READ "The Military Service Contract" by Alice Hunt Friend, CSIS.
READ "Trump Wrongly Ignores Africa" by Alice Hunt Friend, The Hill.
READ "Shinzo Abe won big on Sunday. This is what it means for Japan's national security policy" by Michael Green and Zack Cooper, The Washington Post.
READ "The great Libyan game" by Alice Hunt Friend and Anthony Bell, Friends of Europe.
READ "A Warped Mirror" by Mark Moyar, City Journal.
READ "Empowering Sustainable Partners in the Fight and Aftermath in Syria's Deir Ezzor" by Melissa Dalton and Bassam Barabandi, CSIS.
READ "How Congress Could Amend the Iran Nuclear Deal" by Melissa Dalton, Fortune.
READ "In decertifying the Iran deal, Trump could undermine his own agenda" by Melissa Dalton and Alex Gallo, The Hill.
READ "Ken Burns's 'Vietnam' Is Fair to the Troops, but Not the Cause" by Mark Moyar, The Wall Street Journal.
READ "Formulating National Security Strategy" by Mark Cancian, Melissa Dalton, John Schaus, Colin McElhinny, Andrew Metrick, Hijab Shah, and Rick McPeak, CSIS.
READ "Escalation and Deterrence in the Second Space Age" by Todd Harrison, Zack Cooper, Kaitlyn Johnson, and Thomas Roberts, CSIS.
The name speaks for itself - Project on Nuclear Issues
Multimedia
LISTEN - Joanna Roper CMG, the British Special Envoy for Gender Equality, discusses women and peacekeeping and the U.K.’s efforts to ensure the rights of women and girls worldwide on the Smart Women, Smart Power podcast.
WATCH - Jon Wolfsthal: United States Policy on Nuclear Cooperation, CSIS.
WATCH - Thomas Countryman: Nuclear Risk in East Asia, CSIS.
WATCH - Masakatsu Ota: Japan's Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy in Context, CSIS.
LISTEN - South Korean Foreign Minister Kang, Kyung-wha and former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright discuss the U.S.-South Korea alliance and the North Korean nuclear threat for a special Smart Women, Smart Power podcast.
WATCH - Sharon Squassoni on NowThis, speaking about the Iran nuclear deal and the potential consequences of nixing it.
WATCH - Sharon Squassoni at the 62nd Pugwash Conference, "The Future of Civilian Nuclear Energy".
WATCH - "North Korea's Deadly Dictator" with Rebecca Hersman on Frontline.
LISTEN - "Assessing the Nuclear options" with Sharon Squassoni on the CSIS Podcast.
Finding Nemo? complete with blood fountain - Defense Industrial Initiatives Group
Upcoming Events
Global Security Forum 2017
November 7, 2017
8:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
America's Forgotten Allies: The Soldiers of the Republic of Vietnam
November 8. 2017
4:00 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
"Destination Casablanca: Exile, Espionage, and the Battle for North Africa in World War II"
November 9, 2017
4:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Building the 350-Ship Navy: Prospects and Challenges
November 15, 2017
10:00 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
In Case You Missed It
Transformational Leadership in International Affairs
October 25, 2017
9:30 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Securing Democracy: The History of Foreign Election Interference
October 24, 2017
11:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
"The Future of War: A History"
October 18, 2017
10:00 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Illusions of Victory: The Anbar Awakening and the Rise of the Islamic State
October 10, 2017
2:00 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Libya: Past and Present
October 6, 2017
3:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Escalation and Deterrence in the Second Space Age
October 4, 2017
3:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m.
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Media Highlights
“One would hope it emphasizes the need for opening the aperture and thinking about the missile problem more comprehensively than just the ballistic missile threat.” - Tom Karako in Pittsburgh Post Gazette on October 27, 2017 and Foreign Policy on October 25, 2017.
“Tax reform that increases the deficit would inevitably put more pressure on future defense budgets. It is far from certain that this would actually constrain defense spending because it is driven in part by external threats, but higher deficits would add some downward pressure to the defense budget.” - Todd Harrison in Bloomberg on October 26, 2017.
“I wouldn’t hold your breath for a grand deal... [w]hat usually comes is a kind of mini deal.” - Todd Harrison in Defense News on October 24, 2017.
“It is getting harder as the days go by to find this deal, because the Trump administration is doing things that are forcing Democrats to ask for more.” - Todd Harrison in Newsweek on October 24, 2017.
"There is the real risk of seeing the next generation — the son of ISIS." - Melissa Dalton in Axios on October 20, 2017.
“You have to ask, did AFRICOM see this coming, knowing that they’re taking a really big risk every single time they send troops forward because they know that they don’t have the assets that other commanders do?” - Alice Hunt Friend in BuzzFeed on October 20, 2017.
“We’ve been doing these low-profile, small-footprint missions for a very long time... [t]he Clinton administration did it, the [George W.] Bush administration did it, and the Obama administration as well.” - Alice Hunt Friend in The Washington Times on October 19, 2017.
"Interest in (hypersonics) seems to really be spiking in the Pentagon, in part because some other countries like China have gotten extremely active in this technology area themselves." - Andrew Hunter in Investor's Business Daily on October 19, 2017.
“The notion that a president could capriciously launch a nuclear first strike suggests that no one in the chain of command would raise a question or intervene. In practical terms I find that hard to believe.” - Rebecca Hersman in Yahoo on October 18, 2017.
“We don’t have the political will as a nation to fund that, whether you think it’s needed or not.” - Todd Harrison in Roll Call on October 18, 2017.
“The notion that a president could capriciously launch a nuclear first strike suggests that no one in the chain of command would raise a question or intervene. In practical terms I find that hard to believe.” - Rebecca Hersman in Christian Science Monitor on October 18, 2017.
“Iran is looking to solidify logistical supply lines across Syria and Iraq.” - Melissa Dalton in AI Monitor on October 17, 2017.
“Under the radar screen, there has been a lot of excellence in Army acquisition all along,….and we saw that in Iraq and Afghanistan with all the stuff that was fielded.” - Andrew Hunter in Breaking Defense on October 16, 2017.
“Chad did say at the time that they would review their security commitments, and it makes perfect, logical sense that they are signaling to the US ‘How about you experience us backing off for a while and see how you like it?’” - Alice Hunt Friend in BuzzFeed on October 13, 2017.
“At the most fundamental level, a lot of the limitations that JIEDDO ran up against are limitations in the ability to use data to drive decision making.” - Andrew Hunter in Politico on October 11, 2017.
“Nearly all space systems that we use today were designed for a relatively benign environment.” - Todd Harrison in Roll Call on October 10, 2017.
“You have to come up with a solution that meets all of their needs... [t]he Democrats are not against an increase to defense. Where they draw the line is on domestic decreases.” - Mark Cancian in The Washington Times on October 9, 2017.
“Russian deployments whether it be in Kaliningrad or access to bases in Belarus could potentially isolate NATO’s eastern flank, hold at risk NATO’s ground forces, and support a fait accompli that could either challenge the Alliance or require massive escalation to save it.” - Tom Karako in NATO Parliamentary Assembly on October 7, 2017.
“At the moment, the Army does not have any significant new platforms in the development pipeline. Additionally, notable failed acquisition programs such as the Future Combat System have hollowed out the Army’s System Development and Demonstration [Research and Development] accounts over the past six years." - Andrew Hunter in Defense One on October 6, 2017.
“That is certainly something that we haven’t thought about in 20 years, really a generation... We’ve fought regional competitors, but they’ve never been able to provide the kind of threat that would really cause us concerns about defeat.” - Mark Cancian in National Defense on October 6, 2017.
"[The decision is] potentially a message and an encouragement to uphold the JCPOA as a commitment that the US has made with allies to non-proliferation." - Melissa Dalton in Yahoo on October 6, 2017.
"How much influence the command will actually wield over acquisitions in the long run is unclear at this point." - Todd Harrison in National Defense on October 5, 2017.
"[The US is] increasingly dependent on space-based capabilities, [and at the same time] our adversaries are increasingly developing counter-space capabilities.” - Todd Harrison in Air Force Magazine on October 5, 2017.
“We don’t understand what the red lines are because we haven’t had a conflict in space.” - Todd Harrison in SpaceNews on October 4, 2017.
“We can dramatically increase the pressure, economic and otherwise, to see if we can pressure North Korea to the negotiating table.” - Rebecca Hersman in Frontline on October 4, 2017.