Photo: Noam Galai/Getty Images
Hamas released three hostages on Sunday as part of the first phase of a ceasefire agreement between the group and Israel. Israel subsequently released 90 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. Hamas is expected to release an additional 30 hostages over a six-week period. The deal has also led to the resumption of humanitarian aid into the territory and an Israeli military withdrawal to a half-mile-wide buffer zone inside Gaza.
Q1: Why did it take so long to reach a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas?
A1: The politics on both sides are fraught. It’s not clear who can speak for Hamas. Israel killed much of the Hamas leadership, and there seems to be a split between what remains of the Hamas leadership in Gaza and the remaining Hamas leadership that is negotiating in Qatar. It is also unclear how many of the Israeli hostages Hamas took on October 7 Hamas actually controls.
On the Israeli side, the prime minister’s coalition is divided. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the security minister, resigned over the hostage deal, and other politicians have expressed their deep concerns. Hamas seems bent on reinforcing those concerns. It made a show of force by having fighters parading in the streets with guns, and its police force is very visible. Hamas is clearly more in control of Gaza now than it was a week ago.
In some ways, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given himself insurance on both sides of the political spectrum by indicating a willingness to leave the deal if things do not go the way they should, keeping the right-wing elements of his coalition on board. He also elicited a promise from the main opposition party, led by Yair Lapid, to keep Netanyahu in power in order to win the release of the hostages.
All indications are that the Israeli and Palestinian publics are even more divided over the direction of the ceasefire deal as it takes effect. Hamas seems determined to provoke the Israeli public into more and more conflict over this issue. The Palestinian public, in Gaza especially, is also split between people who blame Hamas for bringing the conflict on everybody and people who praise Hamas for showing strength to the Israelis. This internal division on both sides could be a sign that, rather than moving toward its conclusion, the conflict is just moving to a different phase.
Q2: What happens next?
A2: In a couple of weeks, negotiations are supposed to begin on phase two: a permanent ceasefire and the release of men of military age. But both sides seem more interested in demonstrating their continued willingness to fight, rather than tamping down the conflict. That doesn’t speak well for the prospect of the very difficult negotiations that the agreement will require in the coming weeks. At the same time, humanitarian assistance has already begun to flow into Gaza following the deal, although we have yet to see the impact of this relief on Palestinians in Gaza. Moreover, the prospects for reconstruction still seem remote without a new political determination to move on from the conflict and rebuild.
Q3: Where could the ceasefire deal go wrong?
A3: Having a week between each hostage release is difficult because there is a lot that could go wrong. The deal also backloads the release of hostages, with 14 of the 33 hostages scheduled to be released during the last week of the deal. The political headwinds for the deal could change significantly in that intervening time. It’s one thing when the hostages being released are in good health, but the deal could break down quickly if hostages are either in poor health or dead.
Q4: How likely is it that the war is over?
A4: Israelis and Palestinians both live in deeply traumatized societies. Gaza will take decades to rebuild. But despite the remarkable amount of pain and suffering on both sides, it doesn’t feel to me like either side really wants the war to be over. Things are more unchanged after 15 months of conflict than anybody would have anticipated. On the Palestinian side, there is still no viable political alternative to Hamas. On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Netanyahu seems undaunted, and if anything seems to be vindicated in his judgment that Hamas will never reconcile itself to Israel’s existence. So, I don’t yet see a sign that this conflict is over. It feels like the conflict has shifted to another phase. How long that phase lasts, or how violent it is, remains to be seen.
Q5: What lies ahead for the Trump administration?
A5: In some ways, the Trump administration owns this deal and the outcomes of it. Steve Witkoff, the president’s Middle East negotiator, was quite effective at pushing both sides to make a deal now, but the implementation will be fraught, and the president has other priorities. The president publicly pushed for the deal and positioned himself as a dealmaker, so the collapse of the deal could tarnish the president’s early days in office. I expect to see a big effort by Witkoff and his team to keep this deal moving forward. That requires tough negotiations with all the parties involved, including not just the Israelis and Hamas, but also the Egyptians and the Qataris, who are backchanneling with Hamas. With so many moving pieces, there’s a real danger that what seemed like the president’s first diplomatic victory, coming even before he was inaugurated, could dissolve within days. It is going to be some tough diplomacy for the next few weeks.
Jon B. Alterman is a senior vice president, holds the Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and is director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
