Israel's Uncertain Military Performance and Strategic Goals in Lebanon

July 25, 2006

It is difficult to judge Israel's military performance in Lebanon at a distance. Too little data are as yet available, and reporting is necessarily impressionistic. So far, however, it does not seem particularly impressive either in terms of strategy or execution. Israel seems to have escalated without a high probability it could do critical damage to Hezbollah or coerce the Lebanese government, and the tactical execution of its air and land actions seems to be weak.

Not unlike the US, Israel has always been much better at using force than at end games. In this case, however, Israel rapidly escalated to the massive use of airpower in ways that only made sense if it felt that it could (a) do meaningful and lasting damage to Hezbollah, and (b) coerce the Lebanese government and military to take advantage of Hezbollah's weakness to fully secure the south and disarm Hezbollah.