Journey to the Center of the Board: Geopolitical Lessons from Mongolia
December 22, 2020
Andrew Schwartz: Welcome to The Asia Chessboard. The podcast that examines geopolitical dynamics in Asia, and takes an inside look at the making of grand strategy. I'm Andrew Schwartz at the center for strategic and international studies.
Hannah Fodale: This week, Mike is joined by Ganbat Chuluunkhuu, managing director at RBJ capital, as they journey to the middle of the chessboard to discuss Mongolia's role in the Asia Pacific region. Ganbat dives into Mongolia's history of strategic culture, starting with the legacy of Genghis Khan, and outlines the intricacies of Mongolia's relationships with China, Russia, and third neighbors like the United States.
Mike Green: Welcome back to the Asia Chessboard. I'm Mike Green from CSIS and Georgetown University. We're going to talk about a country right at the center of the chessboard with a small population, but a long history of grand strategy, and that's Mongolia. And to help us understand what's happening in Ulaanbaatar and in Mongolia, vis-a-vis big neighbors like China and Russia, and so-called third neighbors like Japan, the US and Korea. But also to get inside the strategic debates at the heart of geopolitics in the Eurasia landmass. We are joined by a friend of mine, Ganbat Chuluunkhuu, who is in New York, but is Mongolian by birth, has his MBA and MIA from Columbia, and has been in international finance and business, has advised Mongolia on transportation road construction and urban development, but has a very keen sense of the geopolitics that Mongolia faces and the politics within Mongolia, which we'll get to. So Ganbat welcome.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Thank you very much. Thank you for inviting me. And it's a pleasure to be here.
Mike Green: So we always start by asking how our guests got where they are. Yours may be the most unique story and the hardest to copy, but starting with when you were born in Mongolia, tell us briefly, how did you end up in New York? How'd you end up in the middle of the US-Mongolia relationship?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: First of all, I am an active listener of Asia Chessboard and Bonnie Glaser's China podcasts, and I'm just absolutely at awe at the quality of questions and the quality of the participants that you guys have. Well, I was born in Mongolia and I grew up in Moscow. At the time, my father basically was appointed to the Comecon at the time, sort of the UN of the socialist bloc countries at the time. I came back to Mongolia, went to undergrad, and worked in the cashmere industry for a while, and came to do graduate studies in the US, and then afterwards ended up in a sort of a wall street. I was with Commerce Bank, New York branch in structured commodities and experts finance, which sort of led me to Mongolia. Because some of the core clients of the bank were interested in doing business in Mongolia, and asked for a banking support there.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: And of course, sitting in New York, we were responsible for the export finance, dealing a lot with US EXIM. And ever since President Bush's visit to Mongolia, or soon after, US EXIM Bank opened coverage for Mongolia, which enabled banks like us to provide loan financing. And of course, to a similar extent, there were also some of the European clients of the bank that were interested in doing business and were asking the bank’s support. And naturally at the time I was the only Mongolian in the bank, and they reached out to me to help with the coverage there. Long story short, there were many trips to Mongolia for the bank. And now President Battulga had asked me to come back to Mongolia, and help with the infrastructure and industrial development projects in Mongolia. He had a vision for Mongolia, and given my experience, working in different countries, doing the financing in Latin America and Russia and most of the resource rich countries, soI was taken also by his vision and how he wants to develop and went back to Mongolia.
Mike Green: So your English is, of course, better than mine. And your Mongolian is definitely better than mine. You speak Russian as well, growing up there?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: I do. I do.
Mike Green: And so does President Battulga, and so do many Mongolians over the age of 30 or 40, right?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Yeah. I think my generation, I guess in their forties, probably is the last generation to speak Russian. And of course in the previous generations, Russian was sort of a necessary language in order for career advancement. And if one was educated in Russia and they understood it, then it was a great benefit.
Mike Green: So my first trip to Mongolia was when I was a student in Japan, in 1985, and the Yen appreciated my last few months there. So I took all my cash winnings from my bank account, with a friend, and we bought a ticket on the Trans-Siberian railroad. We went from Beijing to Paris eventually, but spent a lot of time going through Mongolia. And in those days, of course, it was completely under Soviet domination. When you looked out the train window, you saw Soviet soldiers, tanks, artillery, MiG's everywhere. When you got to UB, to Ulaanbaatar, you couldn't leave the train station. And my American friend, who had been a friend since college, was a football player, big guy, we were walking through the UB train station. And these young Soviet recruits saw these obviously American guys, and they came up and they bumped into us just looking for a fight.
Mike Green: It was fascinating. I went back to Mongolia again, myself, in November 2005, with President Bush. And I think I can claim credit for being the one who suggested that President Bush go to Mongolia. Which at the time, of course, when the president is his second inaugural was talking about democracy and freedom, he had another long trip to Asia for APEC in Korea that year. We were trying to do something different, so I said, "sir, you should"—I got permission from Condoleezza Rice and Steve Hadley and bosses to propose it—“You should go to Mongolia". And he was intrigued, but a lot of people were skeptical to be honest. And he had a meeting with the Dalai Lama, I think it was the next week, and he said to his holiness, "Green thinks I should go to Mongolia. What do you think"? And his holiness, you've heard me tell this story, Ganbat, his holiness said, "you must go to Mongolia. It's a wonderful country". He said "Mongolians, sometimes I think they're better Buddhists than anyone in the world".
Mike Green: And so president Bush had a wonderful trip. And then I went back again, last summer I spent a lot of time there as you know. One of the things President Bush found so fascinating about Mongolia was when we went to Ulaanbaatar and he had his summit meeting with, I think at the time it was with President Enkhbayar, in a ger, in a yurt, in a giant tent where heads of state have their meetings. And in between the president's seat and president Enkhbayar's seat was a huge alabaster statue of Genghis Khan, and President Bush turned around and looked at it and he said, "Genghis Khan, he had an interesting foreign policy", a little bit sarcastically.
Mike Green: And then President Enkhbayar proceeded to give a lecture on Genghis Khan's foreign policy. Free trade, freedom of religion, that's how you build an empire. And I tell that story in part, because I want to start Ganbat with you telling us a little bit about the strategic--That for a small country, with a population in the millions, Mongolia has a very long, very impressive history of strategic culture and big, big thinking. And tell us a little bit about the Genghis Khan culture and the Mongolian strategic culture, which came back after the Soviet era, right? It became part of the national identity.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Definitely. Mongolia has heritage. Of course, there are two heritage items. One is of course the Genghis Khan legacy and Genghis Khan history. And the second one is you rightfully had also mentioned it's the Buddhism. Which basically Buddhism has become sort of the symbol of Mongolian sovereignty too, going back to 1911, early 1900s, and it's right that Genghis Khan had a very big strategic thinking. He's the one that was able to unite the Mongolian tribes at the time and conquer half the world. And in doing so he was seeking for happiness, for it to be utopian. The foreign policy that is explained in a sense it was sort of benevolent. Before conquering a nation, they would send a messenger and basically ask is it made? And if not then it was a conquered, but the Buddhist part of it is quite significant. In the sense that not only there is a very close connection with Tibetan Buddhism, which started from the 1500s, when the Mongolian Empire at the time had conquered the Tibetan Plateau and they were looking to what other ways to conquer the hearts and minds of Tibetans.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: And they found that maybe close religion. And Dalai Lama is really a Mongolian name that was given by Altan Khan in 1500s. And back then it was Songsten Gampo, he also had given a title to Altan Khan. And since then the Mongolian Buddhism and the Tibetan Buddhism have a very strong relationship, with many of the famous Mongolian scholars in the Dharma teaching there. So taking a step back, nowadays, I sort of see a Mongolia as in a Great Game 2.0. The Great Game One of course was over the Tibetan Plateau between the Russians, the Chinese, and the Brits, right? The Tibetan Plateau was such a strategic position in the mountains that could basically control the surroundings. In a similar sense, Mongolia is sort of becoming like that. And in one way, as you also mentioned, that back in the eighties, there were so many Russian soldiers, there was a Russian base in Mongolia.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: There were Russian consultants working in different areas. And in a way, Russia was really positioning Mongolia because of its size, and because of its small population, to develop Mongolia as one of the examples of the socialist development that they could bring, with an example of Mongolian with other sorts of swing markets or swing countries, at those times in terms of ideology that look at how Mongolia is developing and in a similar way, even during the transition times, I think Mongolia has probably had that kind of approach too. When Professor Jeffry Sachs and all of the other consultants at the time advising the transition governments back in the early nineties, and Mongolia was also a perfect sort of country to do the testing for the transition economies and the implementing of other larger economies. And now Mongolia again is in a very strategic place.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: But given the Chinese foreign policy stance, Mongolia is viewed... Let me just take you back to the history. Back in February 1989, there was a meeting between president George H. W. Bush and Chairman Dan. And Chairman Dan really made the case that Mongolia was really a part of China. Because of the politics foreign policy during the Stalin time, Mongolia was stolen from the Chinese. And as early as 1989, this is also significant given what's going on around the rest of the periphery in China with the South China Sea. And that there is definitely some deeper feeling in Mongolia whether we will become the next Tibet or whether we would become the next Inner Mongolia or Xinjiang.
Mike Green: So Chinese scholars claim Mongolia was part of China. Russian scholars claim Mongolia was part of the Soviet Empire's sphere of influence. Mongolian scholars retort, "no, both China and Russia were part of Genghis Khan's empire. Thank you very much". I want to turn to Russia. I was in Mongolia in the year 2019, which was a time of celebration of what I always call Nomonhan because I'm a Japan expert, the battle in 1939, between Soviet and Mongolian forces, and Japanese coming out of Manchuria. Khalkhin Gol I think it's called in Mongolia. And I was quite surprised to see the affinity, the nostalgia and affection for Soviet era relations. My son got a Soviet forage cap and a t-shirt. They were selling things in the streets and there's a lot more affinity for Russia in Mongolia than there is anywhere else in Asia, that's for sure.
Mike Green: And I suspect part of it is because of concern about China. Some people I talked to last summer in UB were very worried that Russia was losing its focus on Mongolia. That Russia was making too many concessions to China. But now, it looks like trade is up between Russia and Mongolia. For Americans looking at this, a good relationship between Russia and Mongolia seems like a bad idea for US interests, but it's actually a very good idea for Mongolian interests. Given the giant neighbor to the south, where are things with Russia right now for Mongolia?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: The public opinion right now, there is some morale polling from last, I think it was in May, and over 70% of the respondents to the polling said that the best partner to Mongolia was Russia. And there was definitely sort of a nostalgia during the Russian times. And you're exactly right, that this might be in response to the general population feeling that maybe the country is going more to China, where we have a sort of assimilation risk and in Russia, certainly there is no such risk. The Mongolians really have gotten the sovereignty because of Stalin negotiating during the Yalta Agreement back in 1945, that the allied forces had really had to accept the status quo of Mongolia. In other words, basically recognize Mongolia is a sovereign entity. Because I think it's from the Tsarist times that the Russians view Mongolia as potentially a backdoor to Siberia, far east of Russia.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: And that there is a quote by Stalin to this effect. Therefore, Mongolia, as many of the Mongolian scholars will tell you, is that "no, we were not part of China. We were not part of Russia. We basically conquered both of them during the Genghis Khan Empire". So definitely I think for—the Mongolian sovereignty had really rested on the balance between Russia and China. And I think historically, ever since Mongolia has gotten its recognition back in 1945, and even before, there was also a play on the balance between the two, how to keep the balance. If we skew to one side, then there is definitely a risk for basically getting sucked up into one of the orbits.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: And the current situation with Russia is that Russians are also stepping up partnership with Mongolia. Not only the trade had increased between the two countries, but there were announcement of the Power of Siberia 2, the gas pipeline, to go through Mongolia. Also, President Battulga had proposed to establish a Northeast Asia power grid during the Vladivostok Economic Forum back in, I think it was 2018 or 2017, which entails that three countries would produce power: Russia, Mongolia, and China. And three countries would have the potential consume that power: South Korea, Japan, and potentially North Korea. And with the South would include North Korea into the regional economic integration.
Mike Green: What is the thinking about China? You know, China has a lot more economic benefit to bring to Mongolia than Russia does, but my understanding there's no Belt and Road Project in Mongolia. There's great anxiety about being, as you pointed out, absorbed by China, but they're also within Ulaanbaatar and within politics there and within the private sector, there are definitely people as there are in Cambodia or Korea or even India who want to get closer to China for economic reasons. And Mongolian politics are really, really complicated. I love politics and I still don't understand them, and I'm probably one of the few people who tries. A simplistic version would be that the MPP, Mongolian People's Party that just won an election we should talk about, maybe it's a little closer to Russia, and the democratic party, which was the opposition in the early years of democracy, maybe is a little closer to China. Is that an oversimplification? President Battulga is his own guy, but definitely close to Putin. How do the politics of China-Russia relations play out in UB?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Yes. There is definitely an uneasiness about the current situation of getting maybe too close to China, right? Because Mongolia is 90% dependent from China because 90% of all the exports go to China. Of the 90% about...
Mike Green: Can I clarify Ganbat? Go to China or through China?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Go to China.
Mike Green: Go to China. Thanks.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Yep. And 80%, approximately around 80% of this 90% is mineral resources. So naturally, if we were looking from it purely from the economic perspective, purely from trade perspective, then it's great, right? Mongolia could be like Canada to the US in terms of development. But I think when it becomes a little more, then it becomes a little bit tricky for Mongolians. And I think the people are starting to fear or having concern whether Mongolia could become the next Tibet or the next Xinjiang or the next Inner Mongolia given what's going on in those regions, right? And I would say that the MPP would be maybe naturally, the Mongolian People's Party would be actually on the Russian side. But over the last 20, 30 years, there was more closer relationship struck between the Mongolian People's Party, with their communist legacy, with the Chinese Communist Party, the inter-party relationship. Which basically facilitated not only of course on the economic terms, but also on the larger introduction of the Chinese culture into Mongolia. Confucian Institute they have often down in Mongolia there are a number of also study tours going into China and even the soap operas.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: But now that relationship I think had started changing a little bit, there is also part of the reform group inside of MPP that also I think wanted to little bit create a distance and, again, seek balance with Russia. I think the key word here is really the balance for Mongolia. And I think on the Chinese side, it's more higher assimilation risk rather than the Russian ones. And at the same time, the third neighbor policy that you also had mentioned also plays in to, again, balance the two countries and third neighbors would be the countries like US, South Korea, Japan, the European Union.
Mike Green: That third neighbor policy is about, what, 20 years old now?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Yes.
Mike Green: And does it have bi-partisan or a multi partisan support in UB? I've never heard criticism of it from within Mongolian political circles. It's logical to try to do more with Japan, Korea, and the US. Is it a viable strategy? It's not like if Mongolia actually is invaded by China, Russia, it's not like Japan is going to send the self defense forces or the US is even going to be able to send in the Marines. So is it mostly about diplomacy and economics?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Yeah definitely. I think it's mostly economics and I mean, I would say that the third neighbor policy is still viable. And even though, the geopolitics I think are sort of changing to this day, I think the third neighbor policy is viable in order for Mongolia to keep that balance. Mongolia is basically looking to industrialize and is looking for Western technologies. And following the Western technologies, of course, there is financing to get with it, through the ECA's. And with the ECA support coming into is part of the finance. And of course, the taxpayer money of those individual countries would basically means that would be in Mongolia. And therefore it sort of creates that balance, not only between Russia and China, but also in involving the third neighbor countries.
Mike Green: What does the US have to have on its agenda if it's going to be a good third neighbor, if it's going to help Mongolia? Obviously, as I was saying earlier, defense commitment's not very pragmatic, but what do Mongolians look to the US to do to help shore up Mongolia sovereignty in this really, really tough neighborhood?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Well, I think the US, saying this is quite important, I think now we're entering a world of creating alliances. And if you're West, the strategic competition is with China. Then again, sort of this puts Mongolia in a very particular place. In such a way that, of course, US is not going to send Marines or any of the troops, but in terms of supporting the only democracy right now in the region after the collapse of the Berlin Wall is quite significant. Also Mongolia had sent the troops and was there when you US needed Mongolia. It sent troops to Afghanistan at the time.
Mike Green: And Iraq too.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: And Iraq too.
Mike Green: Including troops who were in very tough combat situations and were pretty, pretty tough. I remember when Mongolia offered to send troops to go to Iraq. The prime minister at the time told President Bush, he said, "Mongolians know how to deal with Iraq", which we thought was a reference to the sacking of Baghdad, 700, 800 years ago. But the Mongolian soldiers were tough. For the US you make a really important point, what's the value of Mongolia for the US? Mongolia has rare earth metals, Mongolia has natural resources, Mongolia has fantastic cashmere, but so do a lot of countries have natural resources and products.
Mike Green: And what makes Mongolia stand out is what you just said I think, it's a democracy. One friend of mine who lived in UB, in Ulaanbaatar, who traveled to Turkestan, Kazakhstan, throughout Central Asia during an election in Mongolia said, "it was really striking to go to all these other Central Asian, former Soviet States, these republics and see huge statues and posters of the leaders period, including Russia and China period. And then go back to Mongolia and see posters of candidates vying for office from different political parties". He said "it was really striking".
Mike Green: And so Mongolia's democracy is a national asset. And I would argue an international asset in the heart of a landlocked Eurasia. So it's worth talking about Mongolia's democracy. There are remarkable stories of the democratic transition, of people going on hunger strikes, young students bringing democracy in the early nineties. But there are also stories of corruption, of investigations. You've gotten caught up in some of these yourself, because you're friends with some politicians. There's controversy about President Battulga's proposal to allow the administrative branch to fire judges. It's an endless battle, not unique in Asia.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Yeah.
Speaker 2: But pretty important for Mongolia, which has as one of its international brands, democracy.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Yes.
Speaker 2: What gives you hope and what makes you worried about this struggle to get good democratic governance in Mongolia?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Well, when I went back from New York, back to Mongolia, I started doing my professional work and not attaching any of the politics until I realized that politics was a contact sport. So yes, definitely. It's quite difficult to keep democracy, right? Even after what had happened or what is going on in the United States, right? So the Chinese-Soviet influence had really sort of come in through the elite capture. I like the word, the term that you sort of coined on your podcasts. And of course, through that, it basically influences the whole society. And there were, of course, controversial decisions on the judges, on the appointments of judges, etc. And on one hand, I think it's not the issue of only a few judges, right? The issue is really of the justice in the system, right?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Because these judges make decisions that impact people's lives, their entire society, and overall the wellbeing of democracy and justice. And nowadays President Battulga also said in one of the recent parliamentarian speeches, that there is such a... Mongolia basically had become the country of kleptocracy, right? You have one former member of parliament who had pretty much had stolen over a hundred million US dollars from the social security fund using her bank and got away with it just by paying a small fine. Whereas somebody, a just regular folk, had stolen $20 and basically in jail for three years. So cases like these, I think, had really sort of spread in the country, that the sense for a need for justice has really been felt really strongly. And I think the decisions that has been made at the time may not be absolutely correct, you're right. But it seems as President Battulga had said that those were the decisions as poorly as they could be that needed to be banned at that particular time.
Mike Green: Yeah. I think what would make a good third neighbor, the US, Japan, the EU, Korea, would be supporting Mongolia diplomatically, training Mongolia's armed forces, which the US does more than any country other than Russia. And I think in the Russian case, it's mainly because Mongolian troops have Russian kin, but the real training, the good stuff is with the US. But I also think a good third neighbor should ask hard questions about these issues. And not just the US, Japan, the EU. Mongolia is important because exactly the reason you said, it's a democracy in a sea of authoritarian autocracies and its success matters to us.
Mike Green: I want to ask about what's going on in the neighborhood in terms of what's happening to Tibetan Buddhists and to ethnic Mongolians in inner Mongolia and China, we have a crackdown now, a cultural and ethnic crackdown, which, maybe it's not as bad as Xinjiang, but it's pretty bad. And then you have what's happening in Tibet, which has got to trouble Mongolians who worshiped Tibetan Buddhist traditions. How was that playing among Mongolians? Is it changing attitudes towards China? For example, is it creating nationalism? What's the effect?
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Definitely. Let me, before I go into this, let me just a little bit add on onto your previous comment. I think the world needs a stronger Mongolia. The Mongolia, as you said, they're all the way back ever since the silk road had started, with trading from silk, teas, spices, slaves, then oil, the next really big thing could be, for example, in rare ores that Mongolia has got lots of it. And this is increasingly it could become very strategic. And of course, for all of the mineral resources that Mongolia has got, about 60% of the periodic table, is in Mongolia in world-class quantities. We've got Rio Tinto heavily invested in it. We need more investors like Rio Tinto to develop them. I think before really the Mongolian, there was a country development would only three million people, just a few of those less than probably 10 such time for large investments could really transform the country.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: And of course, all of this would not happen without the sort of neighbor support. Because there are technologies that are going into it that are backed by the export credit agencies, with the financing coming from different countries. So therefore, I think if Mongolia is strong, then I think it's better not only for the regional, but it's also for the global stability. As for Inner Mongolia, and China-Mongolia relations. President Battulga has a mature relationship with President Xi. This is demonstrated by the visit to Beijing in February 2020, when the COVID outbreak was at the highest level. Mongolia presented 30,000 ships to the Chinese people as a gesture of solidarity and helping our neighbor in difficult times. And in response now, China is donating to Mongolia COVID testing equipment, given the recent outbreak. President Battulga has a special relationship with President Putin given their judo background.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: And at the same time, President Battulga has built a good relationship with President Trump, evidenced by the warm welcome to the white house last year. I hope that he develops a strong relationship with President-Elect Biden. He visited Mongolia, so did Jake Sullivan, and this is all about balancing. The events in Inner Mongolia really caused an uproar and motivated Mongolians to revive the traditional script. Recently, the president issued a decree to use it in parallel to the Cyrillic Alphabet we have now starting from 2025. He is even teaching the Mongolian script on TV to encourage this. The Mongolian traditional script is really our cultural heritage. And one really can say, it's a symbol of our sovereignty as well.
Mike Green: And Tibet is a big, big deal for Mongolians, because Chinese law says the next reincarnation of the Dalai Lama will be determined by the Chinese Communist Party. And his holiness has said, "no. It's going to be determined according to Tibetan traditions", but there's a possibility the next Dalai Lama could be discovered in Mongolia, which would put Ulaanbaatar right in the crosshairs of China. So it's a spiritual issue, but it's a big deal geopolitically. My sense is there's a lot of support for the Dalai Lama and for what's happening to Tibetan Buddhism, and in the government a little bit of nervousness about what happens with the reincarnation.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Definitely, definitely. I think if you look at the Buddhist hierarchy, then of course it's Dalai Lama, the Panchen Lama, and Mongolian Khambo Lama, right? And there is a huge following. Mongolians, I think, are mostly Buddhist. If not shown, then it's pretty much basically the Bhuddist lives inside, right? So definitely I think it would... If that happens, saying that the Dalai Lama gets reincarnated in Mongolia, then it's definitely going to also create a lot of issues on Mongolia. And in terms of how to deal with this, in terms of we have a secular government and it would on one side, make Mongolians frown, and on the other side, it would become quite difficult also dealing with China as well.
Mike Green: Mongolia is just so fascinating. It's right in the middle of the Asia Chessboard.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Yes.
Mike Green: And in so many dimensions, natural resources, balance of power, democracy, and values as spiritual issues. The trip I took last summer, the family and I went with friends out to the Orkhon Valley, which I think was like driving from Washington DC to Tennessee.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Yeah.
Mike Green: But my Mongolian friends called it a short trip. And at one point I asked the driver, "why don't you take Belt and Road money"? And he said this line, I will never forget it, he said, "Mongolians would rather have books than bridges". I think there's a lot to that. So Ganbat, thank you, bayarlalaa. I hope people pay more attention to Mongolia. I sure have enjoyed it. I know President Bush sure did when he focused on the country, and we're really lucky to have you help us understand it better. Thanks a lot.
Ganbat Chuluunk...: Thank you so much. Thank you. And thank you for inviting me and giving light to Mongolia.
Andrew Schwartz: Thanks for listening. For more on strategy and the Asia Programs work, visit the CSIS website. At csis.org and click on the Asia Program page.