Key Trends in Gulf Security Partnerships, the Gulf Military Balance, Instability in Gulf States, and Iranian Nuclear Forces
December 1, 2014
The US and its Gulf allies face major crises in dealing with Iran, the Islamic State, and civil wars in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The Burke Chair has recently issued five papers that focus on the key trends and data in these areas.
The first paper is entitled International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Quantifying Key Trends, and was given as a speech at the Third International Conference on Strategic Studies: Shifts and Changes in the World System and its Impacts on the Middle East; November 25-26, 2014, Doha, Qatar. It focus on the key numbers and trends affecting regional stability, the military balance, the US strategic partnership with Arab states, and the need for increased cooperation between Arab States. It is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/141121_Qatar_Speech.pdf.
A broader paper analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of the forces of the Gulf Cooperation Council country, and the problems created by the lack of effective cooperation between them and the creation of effective institutions within the Gulf Cooperation Council is entitled The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula, and is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120228_Iran_Ch_VI_Gulf_State.pdf.
The second paper is entitled Evolving Threats and Strategic Partnership in the Gulf, and provides an updated analysis of the military balance in the Gulf region focusing on US power projection capability and the relative size and capability of GCC and Iranian military forces. It shows that Iran is anything but a regional superpower if GCC states provide the cooperation and interoperability between their forces. It can be found on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/141121_EvolvingThreatsintheGulf.pdf.
The third party quantifies the trends and problems in governance and security, the patterns in terrorism and extremism, and key causes of instability like population pressure for each Gulf state. It is entitled Gulf Security, Stability, and Terrorism: Country Rankings. It highlights the need to address the causes of extremism and instability as well as the sharp differences in the levels and nature of terrorism and extremism in each country. It is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/141113_Gulf_security_stability_and_terrorism_report.pdf.
The fourth paper focuses on the uncertainties shaping the data on Iran’s efforts to acquire, design, and produce nuclear weapons. It is entitled Assessing a Deal or Non-deal with Iran: The Critical Issue of Iran’s Progress in Weapons Research, Development, and Production Capability. It examines the evidence in IAEA and US intelligence reporting, and the problems this raises for any effective agreement between Iran and the P5+1. It can be found on the CSIS website at http://csis.org/files/publication/141119_Assessing_an_Iran_Deal_or_Non-Deal.pdf.
The final paper provides a brief on the progress Iran has made in developing long range missiles and the implications of Iran being able to arm them with nuclear weapons. This paper is entitled Iran's Nuclear Missile Delivery Capability, and is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/141124_CSIS_Toukan_Irans_Nuclear_Missile_Delivery_Capability.pdf.
A broader paper comparing Iran’s full range of conventional artillery rockets and missiles, and the operations for missile defense is available. It is entitled Iran’s Rocket and Missile Forces and Strategic Options, and is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/publication/irans-rocket-and-missile-forces-and-strategic-options.