The "Korean" Cyber Attacks and Their Implications for Cyber Conflict

Topics discussed in the paper:

When does a cyber attack become an act of war?

Deterrence in cyberspace

Norms and thesholds

Political constraints on cyber attack

Non-state actors in cyberspace

Among the major points made by the paper:

• Uncertainty in attribution, collateral damage, and effect, is the key feature of cyber conflict.
• Cyber conflict is shaped by implicit norms and thresholds.
• Militaries now have the capability to launch damaging cyber attacks against critical infrastructure, but serious cyber attack independent of a larger military conflict is unlikely.
• Non-state actors do not yet have the capability to launch a serious cyber attack, they will be able to acquire these from the cybercrime black market in less than a decade. 
• The United States has pre-eminent offensive cyber capabilities, but it obtains little deterrent benefit from this. 
• The United States is uniquely vulnerable and would gain more from international engagement.