Lebanon Finally Elects a President

Lebanon’s parliament elected General Joseph Aoun as president on January 9, 2025, ending a two-year stalemate. Parliament had failed to elect a president 12 times following the end of the previous president’s term in October 2022. Aoun has served as the commander of the Lebanese army since March 2017.

Q1: Why did this happen now?

A1: Aoun’s election is a manifestation of Hezbollah’s weakness. Israel’s war has forced Hezbollah into survival mode and its ability to shape Lebanese politics is diminished. At the same time, the revolution in Syria has reduced Iran’s influence in the broader Levant as it cut its land bridge to Lebanon. Arab and Western powers seized on this moment of weakness and made a coordinated push for Lebanese politicians to elect a president that Hezbollah could not veto.

Q2: What does Aoun’s presidency mean for Hezbollah?

A2: Aoun’s presidency could help Hezbollah in the short term. It increases the chances of Israeli troops withdrawing from southern Lebanon and of Lebanon securing international funding for reconstruction in areas where many of its supporters live.

But securing these short-term goals could undermine Hezbollah’s influence in the long term. If the Lebanese army expands its presence into areas formerly controlled by Hezbollah, it will be more challenging for the group to rebuild its capabilities. And if President Aoun alone is credited with securing international funding for reconstruction, it could further the sense that Hezbollah abandoned its constituents during and after the conflict with Israel.

Q3: Who are the winners?

A3: Many Lebanese hope that a new government will act to address the many crises they face, including the financial collapse since 2019, hosting 1.5 million Syrian refugees, and the damage caused by Israel’s war with Hezbollah. Although there are no easy solutions, recovery depends on an empowered government and international support. Aoun’s close ties with the Lebanese Armed Forces strengthen his leverage in negotiations with Lebanon’s sectarian leaders, improving his chances of breaking through the deadlock.

Arab and Western powers are clear winners. The “Quint,” consisting of the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt, had been trying to end Lebanon’s political stalemate for years and saw Aoun as the most promising candidate.

Saudi Arabia now has a chance to rebuild the influence it lost in Lebanon over the past decade and to cement Hezbollah’s and Iran’s losses. It can offer financial assistance in pursuit of its interests in Lebanon, including strengthening state institutions, curbing Captagon trafficking, and enacting economic reforms.

The United States has long provided support for the Lebanese Armed Forces to counter Hezbollah and is comfortable working with Joseph Aoun.

Q4: What challenges lie ahead for President Aoun?

A4: First, President Aoun must nominate a prime minister to form a government, which parliament must then approve. Despite his resounding victory, apportioning cabinet positions among political parties will be challenging. The process will reveal the extent to which Hezbollah and its allies have been weakened and what conditions they extracted from Aoun during negotiations prior to the vote in parliament.

Next, Aoun must prevent renewed fighting when the 60-day ceasefire expires on January 26 and ensure the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon. His influence over the Lebanese Armed Forces will help in expanding their presence in areas previously controlled by Hezbollah. However, he lacks leverage to force Israel to exercise restraint in Lebanon, especially as president-elect Trump has indicated a more lenient approach to Israel’s military actions.

President Aoun will also have to reassure international donors that Lebanon’s recovery is worth investing in. His government will likely need to take steps to strengthen judicial independence and oversight in Lebanon and make a show of cracking down on corruption. Those moves will face fierce opposition from Lebanon’s political elite, which has consistently worked to obstruct accountability.

Q5: What does this mean for U.S. interests in Lebanon?

A5: The Trump administration is likely to see Lebanon as less of a strategic priority following Aoun’s election. The United States’ three priorities in Lebanon were countering Hezbollah’s ability to threaten Israel, limiting Iran’s presence, and preventing total state collapse. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah, the fall of Bashar al-Assad, and the election of Joseph Aoun have advanced all three of those priorities. U.S. attention is likely to shift away from Lebanon toward Syria, Iraq, and Iran. The Trump administration will be happy to let Arab Gulf states foot the bill for Lebanon’s recovery and deal with its messy politics.

Will Todman is the deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.