The conflict in Syria has had a significant negative impact on the economic outlook for many Syrians. Regional financial crises, sanctions, and a spiraling inflation situation warrant a closer look at the financial cost of the war.

With official figures released earlier this month confirming that the Turkish economy had experienced its sharpest reversal in a decade and entered a technical recession, the CSIS Turkey Project analyzes what this means in terms of the country’s economic future.

Talks with the European Union are beginning, but it is hard to see any short-term agreement. 

Let’s hope the administration understands the limits of its high-risk tactics and is closely monitoring the potential for spillovers. Vulnerable economies may not be the only ones disciplined by financial markets.

Secretary of Defense James Mattis is fond of pointing out, “The enemy gets a vote.” However masterful a maneuver the United States executes, the impact depends on how the adversary responds, and not just on what the United States has done.

Impacts will take months to unfold, and the implementation details and market players’ reactions will ultimately shape final outcomes.

The dilemma for the government, which has relied on continued economic success to buttress its support, will be to “maintain this growth rate with determination in 2018 without regressing,” as Erdogan reaffirmed on January 19.

The Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) announced on December 14 its much-anticipated decision on interest rates by increasing the late liquidity window lending rate from 12.25 percent to 12.75 percent, while keeping overnight lending and one-week repo rates at 9.25 percent and 8...