Middle East Notes and Comment: The Arab World at an Inflection Point

The Arab World at an Inflection Point
Over the holidays, I had lunch with one of the eminences of Arab politics. A former revolutionary, he had spent decades working with Arab leaders and their non-Arab counterparts. He remains sharp, but he has turned reflective. And over lunch, he had a stark admission: “All the strategic choices the Arabs made were wrong.”

He went through a list. Arab economies have proven durably weak. Newly independent governments quickly turned repressive. The constant hostility toward Israel proved an expensive distraction. The region became uniquely enmeshed in warfare and terrorism, while other regions moved on. His generation’s legacy to his children is this: a region whose struggles he had expected to be overcome decades ago, yet which seem even more daunting today. After all, he rose in his career amid a burst of optimism. His generation expected the postcolonial world would produce freedom and prosperity, power, and respect. It did not do much of any of those things. And with Arab populations growing swiftly, the energy transition looming, and the rubble of the Arab Spring’s failures still smoldering, the region’s medium-term outlook is even more daunting.

It would be a mistake, though, to gloss over the fact that the Arab world is once again at an inflection point. The region’s leaderships are making a set of strategic choices as consequential as the ones their predecessors made earlier in this statesman’s career. The region has an opportunity to make much better strategic choices than it made in the past, and there are signs it is beginning to do so—but not in every case.

Read Jon Alterman's commentary on the CSIS website.

From the Middle East Program

Analysis
Natasha Hall co-authored a piece in Foreign Affairs with Hardin Lang, vice president for programs and policy at Refugees International. Against the backdrop of the UN Security Council vote to extend UN cross-border aid in Syria, they argue for the strategic importance of protecting the right to humanitarian aid in an era of Great Power competition. China and Russia will likely grow even more willing to use their influence to weaponize humanitarian aid. Natasha and Hardin Lang argue that acting now is critical. 

You can read their analysis on the Foreign Affairs website. 

Babel: Translating the Middle East
In the most recent episode of Babel, Jon spoke with Jihad Azour, the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF. They talk about the Middle East's economic outlook, the economic impacts of the conflict in Ukraine and Covid-19, and the political consequences of economic reform.

Jon also spoke with Khalid Albaih, a Sudanese political cartoonist. They talk about how Albaih got his start as a political cartoonist, how he went viral during the Arab Spring, and why he's rethinking how he uses the internet today.

We also released three new mezze episodes: one on the rising divorce rate in Egypt, one on Lebanese and Israeli cannabis markets, and another on bitcoin mining farms in Libya.

Events
The Kurds have been a distinctive community within Iran for centuries, and their relationship with the central government has frequently been fraught. That relationship grew even more strained when an Iranian-Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, died under suspicious circumstances after morality police arrested her. The unprecedented anti-regime demonstrations that Amini’s death precipitated help make clear that the Kurds’ long struggle for representation in Iran is a microcosm of the struggles that millions of other disenfranchised Iranians also face. Please join the CSIS Middle East Program for a conversation on Kurdish identity in Iran, what it means in the wake of anti-government protests, and where things might go with Behrouz Boochani, Tara Azizi, and Jason Rezaian. 

You can join the event in-person or online. Register for the event here. 

In the News
Jon spoke with Politico about Europe's growing relationship with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Governments in the Gulf "really want to have the largest mindspace among Western governments," Jon said, and it's "all about shaping the future with remarkably high stakes, profound discomfort about how the world will relate to them over the next 30 to 50 years — and frankly, a series of rulers who see themselves in power for the next 30 to 50 years." (1/11/23) 
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Jon also spoke with Business Insider about Saudi Arabia's growing ties with China and Russia. "Saudi Arabia and China find each other useful," he said, but although "the Saudis fear it is reckless to rely entirely on the United States," the United States remains Saudi Arabia's most important strategic partner and there is no other country that can protect Saudi Arabia from external threats like the United States does. (1/1/23)

Will Todman's commentary from last month on Western LGBTQ+ advocacy backfiring during the Qatar World Cup was covered by DW. (12/30/22) 

Jon spoke to Newsweek about China's growing interest in the Middle East. "As I understand China's ambition," he said, "it is to rise in global power without following the path of the United States." That means "avoiding alliances of any kind and being more deliberate about its military footprint" by "getting what it wants using mostly trade and diplomacy." (12/21/22)