A New Revolution in the Middle East
To hear some people describe it, the global energy transition is nigh. Widespread awareness of climate change has galvanized consumers and governments alike to get serious about abandoning hydrocarbons. The financial world has read the new sentiment and pivoted away from oil and gas. Investors are now pouring billions into renewables, and China sees renewable energy as a national security imperative. Soon, oil production will outstrip demand, and as prices fall, producers will produce even more to make up for lower volumes, suppressing prices still further. Oil prices are going to drop off a cliff.
An alternative view is that the energy transition will take decades, and the built infrastructure to consume hydrocarbons ensures a robust market for many years. While electric cars get attention, approximately 90 percent of new car sales are still gas-fueled, and charging infrastructure is still billions of dollars and decades away. Existing homes have gas furnaces and gas stoves, and they last decades. Virtually all of the world’s jet fuel is petroleum based, and the world is becoming ever-more reliant on plastics, which are derived from oil. That is to say nothing of the developing world, where most of the world’s population lives, and which often operates on smaller economic margins than wealthier nations. Their consumption is rising sharply as incomes increase, and they are likely to rely on existing equipment and technology for longer. While the wealthy can spend thousands on green products, for much of the world’s population, oil and gas will remain the affordable and available fuels.
Read Jon Alterman's commentary on the
CSIS website.
From the Middle East Program
New Analysis
Natasha Hall and Will Todman wrote a
Critical Questions on the United Nations Security Council's renewal of UN agencies' mandate to use the last cross-border access point in Syria. They broke down the implications of the vote, what concessions were made, and who came out the biggest winner.
Events
On July 7, 2021, the Middle East Program hosted Charles Petrie, former UN assistant secretary-general; Zaher Sahloul, the co-founder and president of MedGlobal; and Natasha Hall for a discussion on humanitarian aid in Syria, the debate over access in the United Nations Security Council, and implications for the future of humanitarian aid in other complex environments.
You can watch the event recording
here, or read a transcript of the panel discussion
here.
Babel: Translating the Middle East
In the most
recent episode of Babel, Jon spoke with Karim Sadjadpour about tipping points in Iran and the future of Iran's regime.
In
another episode, Jon spoke with German diplomat Carsten Wieland about the politicization of humanitarian aid in Syria and its implications for international law.
We also released two new mezze episodes:
one on "lollars" in Lebanon and
another vignette adapted from our latest report,"
Sustainable States: Environment, Governance, and the Future of the Middle East," on innovative wastewater treatment in Jordan.
In the News
Natasha told
Al Jazeera that discussions between President Biden and visiting King Abdullah of Jordan may seek to link aid to political reform in the country, but that it will be a "friend to friend approach." (07/18/21)
Natasha spoke with the
Wall Street Journal about the UN cross-border resolution. "The Russians want resources and they want legitimacy and they want resources for their ally in Damascus," she said, so "they could still play the spoiler when it comes to the outcome in the next few months." (07/09/21)
Natasha's panel discussion with Dr. Zaher Sahloul and Charles Petrie was featured in an article by
Middle East Eye. (07/07/21)
Other
Jon
sat down with William Law and the Arab Digest podcast to discuss how President Biden is doing in the Middle East and where the future of U.S. interests in the region lie.
Natasha
joined the AUB Issam Fares Institute on July 13 for a panel discussion about the implications of Bashar al-Assad's re-election in Syria and what future U.S. policy in the country could look like.
Join our team! We are seeking highly motivated candidates for a paid, in-person internship for Fall 2021. Apply
here.
