It is hard to watch the protests unfolding in Iran over the last month and not feel moved to action. Seeing tens of thousands of brave young Iranians seeking dignity and autonomy strikes a special chord with publics that take dignity and autonomy for granted. The proximate cause of the protests—a woman apparently beaten to death for being insufficiently modestly dressed—is so transparently horrific as to shock the conscience.
And yet, the Biden administration's apparent circumspection toward the protests is the correct policy course. While the approach is neither emotionally or politically satisfying, the alternatives would do the protestors no favors and potentially put Iran on an even more destructive course.
One way to see the current moment is that when your adversary is digging himself a hole, don't interrupt.
Read Jon Alterman's commentary on the The Hill.
New Analysis
Jon broke down the OPEC+ decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, including what it means, how the White House might react, and what comes next in a new Critical Questions with Joseph Majkut and Ben Cahill from the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program.
Natasha Hall argued that the status quo on cross-border aid to northwest Syria must end, and that donors need to develop a long-term strategy in an article for The New Humanitarian with Iyad Agha, coordinator of the Northwest Syria NGO Forum.
Babel: Translating the Middle East
In the most recent episode of Babel, Jon spoke with Mahsa Alimardani about the protests in Iran and how both protestors and the regime are using social media.
Jon also spoke with Sami Atallah about Lebanon's three year old economic crisis and its struggle with political accountability.
We also released two new mezze episodes: one on volunteer trash collecting in Tunisia and another on a rising IVF egg storage problem in Israel.
Events
On October 18, the Middle East Program held a conversation about the situation unfolding in Iran, what it means for Iran and the region, and where it all might go with Yeganeh Rezaian, Arash Azizi, and Kirsten Fontenrose, with opening remarks from Jason Rezaian.
You can watch the event on the CSIS website.
In the News
Jon spoke with Puck about Iran-Russia relations as Russia increasingly deploys Iranian-made weapons in Ukraine. Despite what may signal a new turn in the relationship, Jon said that the Russian-Iranian alliance was far more rocky than it seemed on the surface, with "both shared interests and contradictory interests, and a fair amount of disrespect and distrust on both sides." He noted that "if the Iranians had their druthers, their allies would be the Chinese, not the Russians." (10/18/22)
Jon weighed in on how the region might react to a new Iran nuclear deal for Breaking Defense. He said that a new nuclear agreement would likely not affect the security balance in the Middle East all that much because "it will neither address Iran's regional activities nor its missile program." (10/13/22)
Jon spoke with The Wall Street Journal about U.S.-Saudi ties in the wake of the OPEC+ decision. Jon said that "The Saudis are trying to make their military like our military, and the Pentagon sees that as an important initiative." (10/12/22)
Jon sat down with the Financial Times to discuss the potential fallout from the OPEC+ production cut. Jon said that President Biden would most likely leave the response to Congress, but "that could get messy for the Saudis very quickly as they don't have many friends in Congress." (10/11/22)
Will spoke with VOA News about the Israel-Lebanon maritime border agreement, why Hezbollah agreed to it, and why the United States cares so much. (10/11/22)
Natasha spoke with The World podcast about a recent photo op between U.S. and Russian soldiers in Syria and what it means (or doesn't mean) for greater U.S.-Russian cooperation in Syria. (10/10/22)
Jon spoke with Hussein Ibish at the Arab Gulf State Institute in Washington (AGSIW) to discuss his recent commentary, "The Middle East's Coming Centrality." Jon spoke about current dynamics and coming trends for U.S. strategy in the region. You can listen to the event here. (10/4/22)
Jon spoke with Bloomberg about Prince Mohammed bin Salman being named as Saudi Arabia's new prime minister. Rather than acting as a precursor to any major policy shift, Jon said that the move "codifies the status quo, in which he is driving the minister's agendas and coordinating between them." (9/27/22)