Middle East Notes and Comments: Five Factors Mean the Middle East Is Not Back to Normal

Five Factors Mean the Middle East Is Not Back to Normal

Bashar al-Assad’s seemingly triumphant return to the Arab League last week was another sign of the region returning to the status quo ante. A dozen years ago, the world was seized with the idea that Middle Eastern politics and societies would soon be completely different. Now, Arab governments are ready to move on from Assad’s ostracization for forcing the displacement of half of his citizens, the death of a half million of them, and the torture of many others. The durability of Arab regimes has confounded Western analysts who have long argued that these systems could not endure.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, however. Regional governments’ reluctance or inability to resolve the contradictions, weaknesses, and pathologies that contributed to the 2011 Arab revolts make them especially vulnerable to pressures and shocks that are buffeting them from outside the region. Many states are in weakened conditions already, and the next serious blow may well take down one or two.

Read the full commentary here. 

A Keynote Address

Jon delivered the keynote address at The Arab Center Washington DC's conference, titled "A Pivot Away from the Middle East: Fact or Fiction?" He argued that before the United States supposedly “pivoted in” to the Middle East it was quite present, and it will remain present after it supposedly “pivots out.” He added that U.S. ambitions to remake the region in its image were a mistake and the United States would have been better served ensuring it was relevant to regional aspirations. You can watch his address here and read it here. 

From the Middle East Program

New Analysis

Will Todman discussed his findings from the Powering Recovery ​​​​project in a new Devex article, arguing that international donors should advance renewable technologies in conflict-affected environments to prevent the entrenchment of vested interests. He also pointed to the limited window of opportunity donors have to stave off vested interests and improve the provision of electricity. You can read his piece on Devex. 

The Middle East Program also released an Arabic translation of "Powering Recovery: Reform, Reconstruction, and Renewables in Conflict-Affected States in the Arab World" titled "إحياء قطاع الكهرباء". You can read the report on the CSIS website.

Babel: Translating the Middle East
In the most recent episode of Babel, Jon Alterman spoke with Hafsa Halawa of the Middle East Institute and author of a new paper entitled "Gulf Investment in Egypt, A Balance of Mutual Need." They talked about Egypt’s economic crisis, the recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan, the Egyptian military's economic involvement, and the changing face of Gulf financial support.

Jon also spoke with former Middle East program intern Killian Clarke, now an assistant professor at Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, about his forthcoming book tentatively entitled The Return of Tyranny: How Counterrevolutions Emerge and Succeed. They discussed the counterrevolution in Egypt, the complex relationship between the military, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the public, and lessons learned from counterrevolutions around the world. 

We also released two new mezze episodes: one on the "power plays" and acts of intimidation in Libya that have become necessary to access electricity, and another on the structural and cultural challenges to improving fitness and tackling the obesity crisis in the GCC.

Events
On May 10, the Middle East Program and the Global Food Security Program hosted H.E. Mariam Almheiri, Minister of Climate Change and Environment in the United Arab Emirates. The minister discussed the Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate (AIM4C) initiative between the United States and the UAE, which recently announced more than $13 billion in partner investments. Minister Almheiri also spoke of the UAE's investments in agri-tech to produce more food domestically, efforts to address food waste and obesity in the UAE, the UAE's efforts to address food insecurity in the Middle East, and the UAE's goals for COP28. You can watch the event on the CSIS website. 

On May 15, Will participated in a panel discussion with Brookings on climate change, food security, and migration in the Middle East. He spoke of the role of civil society, including artists and entrepreneurs, in helping respond to climate change and its ramifications in the region. You can watch the event here. 

On April 26, Natasha moderated a panel discussion on the earthquake in Syria, identifying failures in the international community's response and opportunities for positive change. The panel discussed how Syria is a microcosm of existing access impediments in the humanitarian aid space. The panel featured Basma Alloush from UNHCR, Hazem Rihawi from the American Relief Coalition for Syria, and Andrea Sweeney from the International Rescue Committee. You can watch the event on the CSIS website. 

In the News

​​​​​​​Will Todman was featured in Devex ​regarding the difficulties of tackling climate change in the region. He stated that "even governments who have the will to try and tackle these issues of climate change often don't have the resources to be able to do so." (5/17/23)​​

Jon Alterman talked to Deutsche Welle about Saudi Arabia's massive spending on sports, noting that the "the country's leadership would like the international public to have positive associations with the Kingdom ... and it hopes that sports will highlight the ways in which Saudi Arabia is like the rest of the world, not the ways it is unlike the rest." (5/11/23) 

Jon spoke with the Financial Times for a story on Saudi Arabia’s rising diplomatic profile. He told them, “Saudis have spoken openly about the fact that you don’t wonder what Chinese policy will be in three years, but you do wonder what American policy will be.” (5/7/2023) 

Natasha Hall spoke to The World podcast about Arab nations normalizing relations with Syria. She discussed why some nations are normalizing relations, Syria's trade of the Captagon drug, and what normalization would mean for refugees. (5/2/23)