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India’s Model for the Middle East
Middle Eastern governments’ interest in the so-called “China model” is real, but it is superficial. They admire China’s three-decade record combining an authoritarian system with the use of state capital to achieve profound economic change while tightly managing social and political change. China’s experience challenges Western insistence that only liberal systems can produce economic growth and stability. Still, while Middle Eastern states like the idea of following the Chinese path, they are often indifferent to the details.
What governments are paying much closer attention to is the “India model.” That model shows that a country can successfully combine diplomatic nonalignment with intimate ties to all of the world’s biggest economies. India has arguably been pursuing a version of the policy since winning independence more than 75 years ago, but has refined it in recent years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to Washington next week is another sign that the “India model” is working, and Middle Eastern rulers will be watching closely to see exactly how it is done.
Read the full commentary here.
Bipartisan Commission on Hostage Taking and Wrongful Detention
On June 1, CSIS launched the bipartisan Commission on Hostage Taking and Wrongful Detention to explore responses to the growing phenomenon of hostage-taking. The commission aims to propose new U.S. government policies that could deter further hostage-taking, study the efficacy of different strategies toward diverse actors, and develop additional tools and authorities to empower U.S. officials and the families of hostages.
Ambassador Robert O'Brien, former national security advisor during the Trump administration, serves as co-chair alongside Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) who serves in an honorary capacity.
Jon Alterman and Middle East Program senior associate Jason Rezaian serve as executive directors. The commission includes returned hostages, hostage family members, former law enforcement and national security officials, diplomats, academics, and journalists - all of whom have a long track record of working on hostage and detainee issues.
The Wall Street Journal also covered the announcement in an exclusive report, highlighting how the growing crisis of hostage-taking has ushered in a new era of hostage diplomacy for the U.S. government.
To learn more about the hostage commission, please review the press release.
New Analysis
Natasha Hall underscored the need for water data in the Middle East to achieve a sustainable future. She suggested that satellite imagery and international support can help facilitate the collection of water data in the most water-scarce region in the world, and noted that water scarcity exacerbates conflict. This commentary builds upon other works from Natasha about water disputes provoking violence across and within borders, the ripple effects of water security on all aspects of life in the Middle East, and the potential for environmental issues to bring people in the region together. You can read Natasha's new water data commentary here and all her work on water security her project webpage.
Will Todman discussed the rise of anti-refugee sentiment in the MENA region as economic crises worsen and aid decreases. He called for innovative solutions from global actors to ease host community burdens, shelter victims of violence, and mitigate hostilities. You can read his piece on the CSIS website.
Will also discussed how civil society holds the key to building more sustainable states in the Middle East, as governments in the region struggle to adequately respond to sharpening environmental challenges. This commentary builds upon previous commentaries on Libya's civil society crackdown, climate entrepreneurship in the region, and art and environmental policy. You can read Will's latest commentary here and all his work on civil society's role in tackling environmental issues in the region on his project webpage.
Babel: Translating the Middle East
In the most recent episode of Babel, Jon spoke with Christoph Reuter of Der Spiegel magazine, an award winning journalist and conflict reporter. They talked about Captagon, criminal networks, and Syria's war economy.
Jon also spoke with Nicolas Pelham of The Economist and author of a recent article in 1843 magazine entitled "The Mystery of Morocco's Missing King." They talked about the Moroccan monarchy, King Mohammed VI’s unusual friendship with a German kickboxer, and what it means for the future of Morocco.
We also released a new mezze episode on Iranian authorities' accusations that Israel and the United Arab Emirates are stealing their rain. You can listen to the episode on the CSIS website.
Events
On June 7, Natasha moderated a panel discussion as part of the European Union’s Seventh Brussels Conference on supporting the future of Syria and the region. The panel addressed the implications of the water crisis in Syria and its grave impact on the Syrian economy, environment, and energy sectors. The discussion also explored ways in which varying factions in Syria continue to weaponize water, its effect on local communities, and what European Union member states can do to promote water security. The panel featured representatives from local civil society organizations currently operating in Syria.
In the News
Natasha spoke to Foreign Policy about Iran's interest in a stable Syria. She spoke to the countries' growing economic ties which have made Iran "deeply embedded" in the conflict-affected state. (06/14/2023)
Jon spoke with The Hill about the United States' evolving relationship with Saudi Arabia and its potential impact on gas prices, explaining that "the Saudis have a genuine challenge figuring out how to manage the oil market" as they want to fund their domestic programs without making alternative energies more economical. (06/12/23)
Jon also talked to The National about China's rising influence in the Middle East noting that "Chinese firms have built billions of dollars in infrastructure in the Middle East, and China is a major source of manufactured goods in the region." (06/11/2023)
Jon was a guest on Al Jazeera's TV program "From Washington", discussing the future of the Iranian-U.S. relationship (in Arabic). You can watch the episode on YouTube. (6/08/23)
Jon talked to Al-Monitor about the significance of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Saudi Arabia. He highlighted how the presence of Saudi Arabia as an ally facilitates the resolution of numerous challenges in the Middle East, while conversely, making other issues insurmountable if Saudi Arabia takes an opposing stance. (6/06/23)
Will spoke to NRC about the anti-gay rhetoric and strategies used by governments in the Middle East as a political tool. He also discussed his commentary on how LGBTQ+ advocacy in the Middle East may have backfired during the 2022 World Cup held in Qatar. Will said “the last thing they [the LGBTQ+ community] want in a climate of increasing repression is to become the center of a national debate.” (6/05/23)
