Middle East Notes and Comments: Why the U.S. Military's Messages Are Falling on Deaf Middle East Ears

Why the US Military’s Messages Are Falling on Deaf Middle Eastern Ears

Almost 40 years ago, a glam-rock band from California named Autograph released “My Girlfriend’s Boyfriend Isn’t Me.” The lead singer wails that despite his devotion, “Her mind is stuck on wait and see.” Needless to say, the song doesn’t end well for him. 

U.S. military officials spend a lot of time messaging their deep relations with allies and partners in the Middle East, but Middle Eastern rulers aren’t returning the love. The problem isn’t only that they see important opportunities elsewhere, or that they have been hearing for more than a decade that the United States is seeking to diminish its focus on them and concentrate on East Asia. They also see the White House, Congress, and the American public being persistently skeptical about their security needs. Not unreasonably seeing American support as a potentially volatile variable, they are increasingly investing in more diverse relationships and preparing to live in a more multipolar world. 

Read the full commentary here. 

From the Middle East Program

New Analysis

Saturday marked the 53rd anniversary of Earth Day, which saw protests around the world calling for the end of fossil fuel use and immediate action from governments and international organizations. ​​As climate change worsens and the window for action diminishes, it is more important than ever to garner public and institutional support for action. In a new commentary, Natasha Hall argues that the first Earth Day in 1970 showcases the need to link environmental degradation to people’s daily lives in the Middle East, and the wider Global South, to promote change and instill goodwill on climate change and many other global challenges in an increasingly polarized world. You can read her analysis here on the CSIS website. 

Babel: Translating the Middle East
In the most recent episode of Babel, Jon spoke with Ayham Kamel of the Eurasia Group to discuss the current diplomatic landscape in the Gulf, how Gulf leaders perceive their security interests, their views on the United States staying in power in the region, and how they are responding to the U.S. retrenchment from the Middle East.

Jon also spoke with Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group about the Saudi-Iranian agreement to resume diplomatic ties, how it fits into Iran’s wider foreign policy strategy around the region, and the prospects for a broader détente between Iran and its Arab neighbors in the Gulf. 

We also released two new mezze episodes: one on privatization in the UAE and the societal backlash to Emiratis being offered certain jobs, and another on the rising popularity of anime in Saudi Arabia.

Events
On April 17, the Middle East Program hosted a conversation with Dr. Steffen Hertog about his latest book Locked Out of Development. Jon and Steffen discussed historically outsized role of government in Arab economies, insider-outsider gaps, and the potential for greater economic growth in the region. You can watch the event here. 

On April 19, the Middle East Program hosted a panel discussion on Dr. Robert Springborg and Dr. Hicham Alaoui's new book, Security Assistance in the Middle East: Challenges … and the Need for Change. Dr. Robert Springborg is a research fellow at the Italian Institute of International Affairs and adjunct professor at Simon Fraser University and Dr. Hicham Alaoui is the founder and director of the Hicham Alaoui Foundation. They were also joined by Dr. Lindsay Benstead, associate professor of political science and director of the Middle East Studies Center (MESC) at Portland State University and Alex Walsh, programme manager for Security Sector Reform at the Geneva Centre for Security Governance (DCAF). You can watch the event here. 

In the News
Natasha spoke with The New Humanitarian about the lack of investment in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation in Syria, a problem highlighted by the recent earthquakes. She emphasized that "one would hope there would be DRR when a crisis or conflict lasts over 15 years." (4/24/23)

Natasha spoke with The New Arab about the risks of allowing Syria back into the Arab league, explaining that, “the more you give to Bashar al-Assad without asking for anything in return that would lead to a more acceptable political resolution, the less reason they would have to compromise on anything." (4/19/23) 

Jon spoke to Politico about why countries in the Middle East were reluctant to fully support Ukraine against Russia. "All the countries in the Middle East now are wondering what it means to be aligned with the United States, what it costs to be aligned with the United States, and whether there are ways to supplement the relationship with the United States." (4/14/23) 

Jon also sat down with Bloomberg to discuss OPEC+'s motivation to cut crude output, explaining how Saudi Arabia is "looking for an aggressive hedge" as a byproduct of the United States' radically unpredictable foreign policy.  (4/12/23)

Jon also spoke with The Washington Post in the wake of reports that Egypt intended to secretly ship up to 40,000 rockets to Russia. Jon explained that Egypt has become increasingly unsatisfied with its relationship with the United States, including U.S. conditions for human rights and democratization. (4/11/23)

Jon also spoke to Politico's National Security Daily about domestic turmoil in Israel, explaining that “Netanyahu has to navigate domestic crisis, and he has an international crisis layered on top. That just makes it a trickier line for him to walk.” (4/10/23) 

Jon spoke with Roll Call about how the Obama administration's approach to the Middle East plays into the Biden administration's current Middle East policy. He said that "implicit in [the Obama administration's] vision was a sense that the United States would play a supportive but less active role, and countries would take more responsibility for their own security and their own futures." (3/31/23)