Photo: JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images
Argentine president Alberto Fernández secured a long-awaited bilateral meeting with Joe Biden at the White House, but it is not enough for him to achieve a new term in the upcoming general elections.
Fernández met with U.S. president Joe Biden at the White House on September 21, 2022. While the meeting may have seemed merely symbolic, it has broader political implications for both countries. Fernández's term is nearing its end, and he may seek reelection, although he faces internal opposition, particularly from the Kirchnerism led by Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Meanwhile, Argentina is facing significant economic difficulties, with inflation projected to surpass 100 percent in 2023, limited USD available reserves, and ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) economic supervision—a challenging scenario for a leader whose approval rating currently stands at less than 30 percent.
Despite these challenges, Biden’s meeting represents a significant diplomatic achievement for Fernández. Jorge Argüello, Argentina’s ambassador to the United States, praised the meeting as a political success. During the encounter, both leaders discussed cooperation in food, energy, technology, and critical minerals, touched on the Chinese presence in the region, and agreed in advancing democracy and human rights in the Western Hemisphere. They also condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine and raised ways to address its economic consequences. It is here where certain criticisms of Alberto Fernández’s regional diplomacy appear. Fernández has been critical of the United States’ decision to not to invite Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to the Summit of the Americas held in Los Angeles in 2022 but has not openly criticized human rights violations in countries such as Nicaragua.
However, Argentina’s global foreign policy has shifted in recent months, with the Palacio San Martin (Argentina’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs) taking a more pro-Western stance. The reasons behind the foreign policy shift appear to be motivated more by the need for explicit support from Washington and the IMF than by any values-based conviction. The Argentine government actively condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine in multilateral institutions from the start, in February 2023, when it called to end the invasion at the UN General Assembly's emergency special session (the only other sponsor from Latin America was Costa Rica). The government also suggested a discussion of the war in Ukraine at the Ibero-American Summit on March 2023 in Santo Domingo, which aimed to signal a commitment to a more pro-Ukrainian standing. Nonetheless, following the deeply rooted principle of nonintervention as with the rest of Latin America, Argentina did not join the Western sanctions against Russia and did not answer the United States Southern Command’s (SOUTHCOM) chief general Laura Richardson’s idea to send Russian-made equipment to the Ukrainian side. In the near future, a different administration may have an opportunity to provide a stronger signal of commitment as a major non-NATO ally with more concrete action on these issues.
The Biden-Fernández meeting was an opportunity for Argentina to demonstrate a balancing act between the United States and China. The United States has been critical of China's growing presence in the region, and Argentina may be seeking to maintain good relations with both countries while avoiding taking additional commitments on strategic issues with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This is not a new approach. In 2022 Argentina was invited both to the G7 and participated in a BRICS summit under the PRC, thus trying to show “growing global leadership” as a Latin American country.
However, the China issue has been increasingly on the radar for the Biden administration. Besides a Chinese deep-space ground station in Patagonia that was inaugurated in 2017, Argentina joined the Chinese-founded Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Belt and Road Initiative and has also been evaluating the Chinese-made JF-17 fighter jets—currently competing with an F-16 bid—and shows mixed signals about the construction of a naval base in Ushuaia, the Argentine “gateway to Antarctica,” with Chinese funds. In a context of renewed strategic competition among great powers in the Western Hemisphere, Argentina seems to be the weakest linkage in the region for strategic reasons and economic weakness. In this regard, the need for good relations with Washington has led the current administration to put some restraint on issues of concern, especially on strategic areas such as the military and sensitive technologies. As an example, the Argentine government seemed to freeze a multibillion Chinese investment in the nuclear sector, an $8 billion nuclear power project that involves Hualong One technology, the first Chinese nuclear reactor design to be offered and commercialized abroad. In the upcoming May visit to Beijing, Minister of Economy Sergio Massa seems likely to look for funds for noncontroversial infrastructure projects.
While the Biden-Fernández meeting was undoubtedly a political success for the Argentine leader, it remains to be seen whether it will translate into the electoral arena. The White House meeting could help Fernández bolster his foreign policy credentials, which may be a factor in the upcoming elections. The ruling political coalition is facing increasing stress as it prepares for primary and general elections, with Alberto Fernández seeking reelection and Kirchnerism resisting his attempt (but without an attractive candidate in Cristina Fernández de Kirchner), and a watchful Sergio Massa—the three partners of a company with poor economic results. The socioeconomic situation in Argentina is grim, many citizens are struggling to make ends meet, and poverty reached almost 40 percent according to Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). The main opposition group (Juntos por el Cambio) has a great chance but is still defining how it will run the elections, now knowing if ex-president Mauricio Macri is not going to compete, and an ultraliberal outsider Javier Millei is growing in voting intention.
The United States and Argentina have a long history of cooperation and shared challenges—they celebrate 200 years of bilateral relations in 2023—but this meeting signals that despite electoral results in Argentina’s presidential elections, these two democratic countries can offer a route for strategic cooperation on long-term challenges that can avoid a nightmare scenario in which the United States may lose Argentina to China—entering Argentina into a vicious geopolitical game from which it would hardly benefit.
Ariel González Levaggi is a non-resident affiliate with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
