Mozambique General Elections Point to Changing Political Dynamics

On October 9, 2024, millions of Mozambicans gathered at polling stations across the country to cast their ballot for the president, the Assembly of the Republic (Mozambique’s national assembly), and the provincial government. The international and domestic observer missions who attended this exercise have reported on issues during the campaign and election process that will likely undermine public confidence in the credibility of the vote results, such as ballot box stuffing, intimidation, and questionable vote counting. Opposition parties have amplified these concerns with statements to the media with claims that the ruling FRELIMO party committed fraud and plans to challenge the results when they are made official. Allegations of irregularities have characterized virtually every election in Mozambique’s history, at times contributing to instability, but in more recent years seemingly quietly resolved.

However, this election introduced a new wrinkle that threatens to alter the relationship between Mozambique’s traditional political parties, FRELIMO and RENAMO. The Optimistic People for the Development of Mozambique (PODEMOS), a party formed around dissenting FRELIMO members, gained momentum this election year as it threw its support behind Venâncio Mondlane, a presidential candidate that broke away from RENAMO to run as an independent. Both Mondlane and PODEMOS have leveraged social media to connect with Mozambique’s large youth population who are seeking a change to the status quo. Indeed, the very word PODEMOS means “we can” in Portuguese, a message of hope and encouragement to a population seeking greater economic opportunities and improved security. Mozambican media and civil society have shared preliminary, unofficial results that suggest PODEMOS likely outperformed RENAMO—and possibly FRELIMO—this election, setting the stage for a showdown to determine which will be the primary opposition party during the next five years. PODEMOS’s success at the polls and the shifting political dynamics in Mozambique may also present an opportunity for partners to push for greater political opening and changes to the electoral process that might help steady Mozambique’s journey toward full democracy.

The Battle for Second Place

RENAMO, a rebel group that became the primary opposition party in Mozambique, since 2018 has been slowly losing public confidence in its effectiveness in providing a counterweight to the ruling FRELIMO. The concept of “FRENAMO,” a term used to suggest RENAMO has quietly allied itself to FRELIMO—or at least is no longer putting up a serious resistance—first became popular in political circles in 2018. Critics of a deal between the two parties to decentralize government adopted the term to not only plan the agreement but to suggest RENAMO had sold out to FRELIMO in accepting the scheme. The concept gained momentum under current RENAMO leader Ossufo Momade as dissatisfaction with his leadership combined with narratives suggesting he was receiving extra benefits from FRELIMO to further undercut the party’s reputation. During a visit to Nacala-Porto, Nampula Province, on the eve of the election, I observed a robust showing of supporters at the RENAMO headquarters organizing themselves for election day. A local explained that while locals still supported the party, they had grown disillusioned with Momade. He added that this attitude towards the party would likely result in voters voting for RENAMO in the provincial and parliamentary elections, but someone else for president. Indeed, this sentiment seems to have borne out postelection; RENAMO leaders in Nampula have since called for his resignation.

The perception that RENAMO had sold out to FRELIMO at a time when the public, particularly the youth, was looking for a change in the status quo created space for a new actor with a compelling message, such as Venâncio Mondlane and PODEMOS, to emerge. PODEMOS first emerged in 2019, the creation of a civil society group that had supported the mayoral candidacy of Samora Machal Jr. after FRELIMO excluded him from the party’s mayoral candidate list. While Machal eventually decided to stay with FRELIMO, PODEMOS carried on as an alternative for those seeking more equitable economic opportunities and a change in the status quo. Mondlane’s story follows a similar track. Mondlane was a RENAMO mayoral candidate who claimed to have lost the election due to fraud. After RENAMO decided to name Momade as its presidential candidate this year, Mondlane left RENAMO to run as an independent.

However, in August, Mondlane and PODEMOS signed an alliance agreement that would have provided Mondlane with parliamentary allies in the event of his election as president. Both these actors have been widely appealing to youth, who have embraced the PODEMOS and Mondlane platforms, which have focused on good governance and economic development. PODEMOS and Mondlane also have been effective in their use of social media to garner support and mobilize their supporters countrywide, granting these political actors greater influence and further feeding into their electoral success.

FRELIMO Facing a Dilemma

Preliminary unofficial results suggest PODEMOS has likely gained more votes in the national assembly than RENAMO, creating a dilemma for FRELIMO as the vote results are finalized. Assuming allegations that the responsible electoral bodies are not independent and will tweak voter tallies to favor the ruling party, in addition to turning a blind eye to allegations of irregularities and fraud in the voting process, the risk of a similar action toward the opposition parties is equally high. The dilemma FRELIMO will face in this scenario is how far to stray from the public’s will and how the party will respond to the public pressure PODEMOS and Mondlane are already generating. Handing second place to RENAMO in a context where the public likely believes the party did not fare well in the elections would almost certainly further delegitimize the process and foster greater voter disengagement; the Center for Public Integrity, a Mozambican civil society group, estimates voter turnout was around 35 percent, down from 51 percent in 2019.

Favoring RENAMO also increases the risk of protest and political violence. PODEMOS and Mondlane are already setting the stage for popular protests against the election results, claiming a FRELIMO victory will have been fraudulent and not representative of popular will. Civilians assembling in cities around Mozambique in answer to Mondlane’s calls for a nationwide strike on October 21 were greeted with a robust police response that included firing tear gas as the protestors gathered. Mondlane’s calls for widespread participation in funeral ceremonies for two PODEMOS members—including the attorney responsible for filing legal challenges to the election results—who were killed over the weekend set the stage for additional confrontations this week. This builds on the confrontations that have already taken place between PODEMOS, Mondlane supporters, and the police since the election. PODEMOS’s president, Albino Forquilha, told the press on October 15 that preliminary results suggesting his party was losing to FRELIMO and RENAMO were false and that the two traditional leading parties of the country were conspiring against PODEMOS. Even peaceful protests run the risk of turning violent if police take on a heavy-handed approach as occurred during the funeral of a popular rapper activist Azagaia last year and as reportedly took place on Monday during the general strike.

Holding Open Mozambique’s Political Space

The emergence of an alliance between disaffected FRELIMO and RENAMO members to challenge the political status quo is a notable step forward in Mozambique’s political development and a further sign that the ideologies and alliances of the past are starting to crack. Despite the decline in voter participation this year, voters who did show up to polling stations arrived with a deep commitment to exercising their civic duty, waiting in line for hours in the heat to cast their ballot. Even voters who had been refused the opportunity on a technical matter determined to stay as a form of protest and one occasion began writing on the walls of the polling station “nao votamos,” or “we did not vote.” Partners have a potential opportunity to help hold this political space open and push the Mozambican government to take measures that would help shore up public confidence in the democratic process.

  • Modernization of Process. Updates to the voting process that would reduce the time between voting and announcing the results would likely help reduce the risk of manipulation and improve voter confidence. In addition, rolling over the voter rolls from one election to the next would likely reduce costs and reduce the risk of fraud or errors. For example, some voters were denied the right to vote because their name did not appear next to their voter number on the rolls at their polling station, even though they had voted at that location during last year’s municipal elections.
  • Police Training. In a scenario where the public is not reflected in the election results, the prospects for popular protests will increase as will the risk of confrontations between the police and civilians. Training police to better manage peaceful protests and shift its mindset from one that has the police in service to political parties to one that serves the public will be an important step toward reducing the risk of harm to the public and its property.
  • Leverage Influence to Push for Greater Transparency. The international community is credited with pressuring the FRELIMO government to reverse course in 2009 and accept the Mozambique Democratic Movement, a party that broke away from RENAMO, into the national assembly. International partners may need to consider intervening again to not only preserve the democratic process but to mitigate the risk of postelection violence.
     

The conduct and aftermath of the 2024 election suggest the time for business as usual in Mozambique may be running out. How FRELIMO and RENAMO respond to the shifting political winds will be a key factor not only in near-term stability but the longer-term perceptions of the value of democracy in a society where one’s voice is not always well heard.

Emilia Columbo is a senior associate (non-resident) with the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.