Northern Mozambique at a Crossroads: Scenarios for Violence in the Resource-rich Cabo Delgado Province

Photo: MARCO LONGARI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Photo: MARCO LONGARI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Report by Judd Devermont and Emilia Columbo

Published October 18, 2019

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The government of Mozambique has a rapidly shrinking window within which to implement a more comprehensive and effective strategy to weaken the Ahlu Sunna wa Jama (ASWJ) insurgents in Cabo Delgado and prevent the group from becoming an entrenched, long-term security problem. This report lays out potential scenarios for the trajectory of violence in Cabo Delgado during the next 18 months based on two primary drivers: insurgency capacity and government strategies to address the violence.

This report is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.

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Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Military Technology, Defense and Security, Civil Society, and Governance and Rule of Law
Judd Devermont

Judd Devermont

Former Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Africa Program
Emilia Columbo

Emilia Columbo

Former Senior Associate (Non-resident), Africa Program

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