Northern Mozambique at a Crossroads: Scenarios for Violence in the Resource-rich Cabo Delgado Province

The government of Mozambique has a rapidly shrinking window within which to implement a more comprehensive and effective strategy to weaken the Ahlu Sunna wa Jama (ASWJ) insurgents in Cabo Delgado and prevent the group from becoming an entrenched, long-term security problem. This report lays out potential scenarios for the trajectory of violence in Cabo Delgado during the next 18 months based on two primary drivers: insurgency capacity and government strategies to address the violence.

This report is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.