Obama to Jakarta-Five Steps to Assuring an Enduring Impact on U.S.-Indonesia Relations

In 12 days, and the Gulf of Mexico willing, President Obama will return to Jakarta, a place he knows from his childhood. Pictures of an American president who can speak Bhasa Indonesia, feels comfortable in one of Southeast Asia’s most important cities, and is bringing his family back to see where he grew up will be compelling. While the imagery will be unprecedented, it is the substance of the visit that will be enduring. There are five things President Obama and the U.S. team should get right during the visit: develop institutions, build infrastructure, invest in education and health care, normalize military-to-military relations, and allow Indonesians to define themselves.

All of these issues will resonate with the president, who wants Indonesia to be the “big country” relationship that his administration transforms, much like President Bush did with India. The administration’s stated vehicle for this engagement is the Comprehensive Partnership. Success will depend on mutual respect and the sense of a balanced partnership.

First, support building and strengthening institutions. The lesson learned from recent events in Thailand is that nascent democracies can severely test institutions such as the courts, electoral oversight committees, and others. Indonesia fought hard for one person-one vote, and Indonesians are right to be proud. The time to invest in strengthening capacity for rule of law, transparency, and human resources is now—not in the midst of a crisis.

Second, build infrastructure. To sustain and expand growth and provide additional opportunities for its 240 million people, Indonesia will have to enhance its infrastructure. Across Southeast Asia, China has done an excellent job of providing low-cost loans so its companies can partner with local firms to build roads and bridges. U.S. companies are competitive in high-end infrastructure such as airports, electric power, telecommunications, and electronics that make roads and cities work more efficiently. There are outstanding Indonesian partners who prefer to work with U.S. companies based on their preference to train, share technology, and invest in communities. Chinese infrastructure companies have been criticized in Indonesia for importing both materials and workers—a hard formula to sustain in Indonesia where nearly 2 million new candidates seek to enter the workforce every year.

Third, invest in education and health care. These two vital areas have been identified as priorities by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, but much work remains to be done. U.S. capabilities and interests align well in these two sectors and offer ample opportunities for enduring partnerships that will be meaningful to both Indonesians and Americans.

Fourth, fully normalize military-to-military relations. The U.S. military lost contact with their Indonesian counterparts for more than a generation due to legitimate U.S. policy concerns about human rights in Aceh and East Timor, as well as other incidents. The forces were reunited by necessity in response to the tragic tsunami of 2004. In that event, the lack of communication, coordination, and familiarity between the U.S. military—clearly the largest and most capable of the first responders—and their Indonesian counterparts surely cost enormous numbers of lives and damage. Indonesia is the largest country and the anchor of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). ASEAN is almost certainly going to be the base of future Asian regional security architecture. Therefore, the United States cannot truly be a vital and strong partner with ASEAN unless it reestablishes close ties with the Indonesian military.

Finally, we should allow Indonesians to define themselves. A fundamental aspect of respect is appreciating the identity of your partner. Most U.S. analysts, including this author, have described Indonesia as “the country with the world’s largest moderate Muslim population” in making the case why the country is important to the United States. Indonesians may find it odd to be described as “moderate Muslims” just as Americans might find it strange to be described as “the world’s largest majority-Christian nation.” Indonesia’s citizens come from nearly all faiths, just as U.S. citizens do. And while it is true that most Indonesians are Muslim, the majority don’t identify with being defined by their religion. Most identify themselves first as Indonesians. President Obama and U.S. policymakers will do well to observe this truth and let the facts of Islam being practiced by moderates tell its own story.

President Obama’s visit to Indonesia will feel like a great success, but the harder test is whether it will make an enduring impact on building truly close ties between the world’s third-largest and fourth-largest countries. Addressing the five issues outlined above will assure that outcome.

THE WEEK THAT WAS

• For two days in Beijing, more than 200 U.S. officials, including 15 secretaries and administrators, led by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, participated in the second United States-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (SED) with their Chinese counterparts, led by State Councilor Dai Bingguo and Vice Premier Wang Qishan. Twenty-six specific outcomes of note were announced. Highlights included cooperation on nuclear safety; joint research and development in shale gas resources; energy and environment cooperation; combating illicit trafficking in nuclear and radioactive materials; and consultation on arms control and nonproliferation. In addition, officials agreed that continuing efforts were needed on economic adjustments and rebalancing to achieve sustained growth. Issues important to both sides remain unresolved. These include China's currency revaluation and U.S. restrictions on high-tech exports to China. Also, no agreement was reached on how to handle North Korea and Iran.
• On May 24, an international commission announced its determination that North Korea had torpedoed the South Korean warship Cheonan. This act is seen as the gravest provocation in decades between the two Koreas. In response, South Korea has announced new sanctions against North Korea, including suspending trade and talks with the North and banning North Korean ships from passing through its waters. In retaliation, North Korea said on May 25 it would sever all ties with South Korea and expel the South’s workers from a joint industrial zone as “punishment.” North Korea's National Defense Commission accused South Korea of faking the sinking of the Cheonan. China’s posture over the Korean standoff has been viewed by the West as overly careful. China has argued for restraint and shared North Korea’s perspective that it is still at war with the United States and that it wants direct negotiations with the United States in order to resolve underlying issues.

• Prime Minster Yukio Hatoyama of Japan has agreed to work with the United States to sustain the U.S. military presence at the strategically important Futenma base on Okinawa. Mr. Hatoyama had made campaign promises to try and move the base out of Okinawa or even out of Japan altogether. At the time of publishing this newsletter, it has been reported that PM Hatoyama announced his resignation after about eight months in office.
• The gravity of the U.S. military presence was simultaneously stressed by Singapore’s Mentor Minster Lee Kuan Yew and by U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) Chief Admiral Robert Willard. At a symposium in Tokyo on May 20, Mr. Lee said: “We believe that [the U.S. military] presence brings about stability and peace. They need a base in the northeast.” During an interview with the Financial Times on May 26, Commander Willard said China's extensive claims to islands and waters in the South China Sea and its recent assertiveness around the East China Sea were "generating increasing concern broadly across the region and must be addressed."

• In Beijing, senior U.S. and Chinese military commanders met on May 25 on the sidelines of the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) in their first high-level contact since January, when all military contact was suspended over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Admiral Willard met with General Ma Xiaotian, the deputy head of the People’s Liberation Army general staff. Admiral Willard expressed regret that the military ties with China are lagging behind in maturity and sophistication the two countries' other dealings. The Chinese also voiced their frustration by stating that the military-to-military relationship has been "seriously disrupted" by the Obama administration's arms sale to Taiwan.
• As Thai troops ended the nine-week protest by Red Shirts in the heart of Bangkok, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva pushed ahead with plans for national reconciliation. The Thai government has embarked on three of the four points in Prime Minister Abhisit’s initial five-point national reconciliation plan. There are no current plans for new elections yet. Additionally, an independent investigation of the violent incidents that occurred during the protest period is under way. Official reports indicate that from March 12, 2010, when the demonstrations began, until May 19, 2010, when they ceased, there were a total of 46 bombing incidents and 116 bomb counts. Of the 1,402 persons injured, 411 were officers and 991 were civilians. As for the 85 deaths, 11 were soldiers and 74 were civilians.

• Thailand has stepped up efforts to arrest former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The government issued an arrest warrant on terrorism charges and imposed financial sanctions on Dr. Thaksin and his known backers.
• In United States, the U.S. Senate has unanimously approved a resolution (S. Res 538), introduced by Senator Jim Webb, to affirm its support for "a strong and vital alliance" with Thailand, urging a timely implementation of an agreed plan for national reconciliation in Thailand so that free and fair elections can be held. Senator Webb will be visiting Korea, Thailand, and Burma from May 29 to June 6.

• Malaysian and Singaporean leaders met and resolved 20-year-old bilateral issues. Malaysia agreed to relocate a railway station, a product of the British colonial era, in the center of Singapore’s business district to the northern part of the island-state, separated by the Straits of Malacca. The relocation will take place on July 1, 2011. In turn, Singapore said it would not seek to extend a water agreement dating back to 1961; rather, it will hand over the waterworks it operates to the Johor state government when the current agreement lapses. Political observers hailed this breakthrough as a show of a high level of diplomacy and statesmanship.
• India’s president Pratibha Patil arrived in Beijing on May 25 for a six-day visit in China. It was reported that President Patil sought China's support for India's bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. In response, China indicated it would support India's aspirations but wants substantial reform of the world body. At a meeting with Jia Qinlin, chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), Mr. Jia raised with President Patil the question of the "activities" of the Dalai Lama and sought reiteration of India's stand on Tibet and an assurance that anti-China activities are not permitted on Indian soil. In her speech, President Patil in turn underlined the importance of “mutual awareness” and “mutual understanding of each other’s sensitivities,” and stressed that there is “enough space in world for India, and for China to fulfill their goals and prosper.”

• Philippines’ Commission on Elections (Comelec) chairman Jose Melo said on May 27 that he is confident that the winners for the positions of president and vice president can be proclaimed by Congress before June 15. Article 7, Section 4 of the 1987 constitution requires a joint session of the Congress to canvass the votes and proclaim the winners for the presidential and vice presidential races not later than 30 days after the elections. The elections were held on May 10. Outgoing president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo ends her term on June 30. The Philippine constitution calls for the installation of an incoming president and vice president at noon on June 30.

• Indonesia’s upstream oil and gas regulator, BP Migas, announced on May 31 its plans to boost security at its offshore oil and gas facilities. Locations near the maritime border are at risk of disputes. Indonesia has several oil and gas blocks that are located in border areas, including Ambalat, Natuna, and Timor.

•  Cambodia's genocide tribunal announced on May 31 that the court will hand down its verdict July 26 in the case of  Khmer Rouge prison chief Kaing Guek Eav, better known as Duch, who is accused of crimes against humanity, war crimes, murder, and torture.

• The 30th conference of ASEAN Chiefs of Police (ASEANAPOL) concluded on May 27. Nearly 300 senior police officers from ASEAN countries and their partner countries, including China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, along with representatives of the ASEANAPOL Secretariat and the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol), attended the event. Main issues discussed included strengthening mutual cooperation, particularly in the areas of law enforcement cooperation, transnational crime, counterterrorism, drug and weapon trafficking, maritime fraud, and cybercrime. At the sidelines of the conference, Cambodia’s president Hu Sen underscored the importance of joint regional cooperation in fighting transnational crimes.
• On May 27, top officials from Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia met under the auspices of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore Revolving Fund Committee to assess the extent of oil pollution caused by the collision between an oil tanker and a bulk carrier in the Singapore Straits on May 25. Reportedly, the oil spill has spread to Malaysian waters.

• U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, who was in Jakarta with a U.S. business delegation from U.S. energy, construction, and engineering companies to promote clean energy-related investment and export opportunities, said U.S. energy companies were lining up to invest in renewable energy projects in Indonesia but were challenged by the lack of government transparency and conflicting regulations. To promote competition in clean energy technology, he also recommended that the Indonesian government cut fossil-fuel subsidies.
• Indonesia is pushing ahead with climate change initiatives. On May 26, Indonesia and Norway signed a letter of intent to reduce deforestation, by which Norway will provide up to US$1 billion so that Indonesia can protect its forests. President Yudhoyono also announced that Indonesia would stop issuing new concessions for peat lands and natural forests for two years, effectively imposing a temporary halt on deforestation.

• U.S. and Indonesian delegations wrapped up the U.S.-Indonesia Security Dialogue held May 24–25. The delegations discussed a broad range of security and defense issues, including the role of the military in disaster relief management, peacekeeping, security reforms, counterterrorism, and U.S.-Indonesia military relations.
• More than 100 officers and band members from Tentara Nasional Indonesia Angkatan Laut (TNI-AL) welcomed the USS Tortuga (LSD 46), USS Vandegrift (FFG 48), USNS Salvor (T-ARS 52), and the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Mellon to Indonesia for the 16th annual Naval Engagement Activity (NEA) exercise on May 26. NEA is part of the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) series of bilateral exercises held annually in Southeast Asia to strengthen relationships and to enhance force readiness.

• On June 2, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak announced a cabinet reshuffle that involved 12 ministries. The reshuffle brought in more figures from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC).

THE WEEK AHEAD

• U.S. president Barack Obama will visit Indonesia June 14–16 (Jakarta and Bali) and then Australia (Canberra and Sydney) June 17–18.
• The inaugural U.S.-India strategic dialogue will be held in Washington, D.C., on June 2–3. The dialogue is expected to cover a wide gamut of areas, including high-technology trade, science and technology, civil nuclear cooperation, agriculture, human resource development, security, and other strategic issues. It was reported that U.S. president Barack Obama spoke with Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh on May 28 to discuss the inaugural "strategic dialogue" between the two governments; President Obama reportedly expressed his condolences about the recent tragic airline accident and recent train attack by Maoist rebels in India.

• Chinese premier Wen Jiabao will visit four Asian nations from May 28 to June 3. He is scheduled to visit the Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, and Myanmar (June 2–3).
• The 9th International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Asia Security Summit, also known as Shangri-La Dialogue, will be held in Singapore on June 4–6. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and U.S. Pacific Commander Admiral Robert Willard will attend the conference. Though the dialogue deals with a variety of security and defense issues, the Korean Cheonan crisis is expected to dominate this year's event.

• The 19th World Economic Forum-East Asia will be held in Vietnam on June 6–7. More than 300 leaders from East Asia are expected to convene in Ho Chi Minh City to discuss how a sustainable economic recovery can be achieved to ensure the region’s future competitiveness.
• Marking the start of a series of APEC ministerial meetings to be chaired by Japan, trade ministers from Pacific Rim economies will assemble in Sapporo, Hokkaido, on June 5–6. It is reported that members are expected to discuss "possible pathways" to the proposed Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific, or FTAAP, an idea originally floated by the United States. Japan has set 2020 as a target year to set up the FTAAP.

• On June 4, the CSIS Southeast Asia Program will be holding a small, closed roundtable meeting with Azyumardi Azra, professor of history and director of Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University’s Graduate School; Endy M. Bayuni, chief editor of the Jakarta Post; and Bara Hasibuan, cochairman for international relations of the National Mandate Party (PAN). The core discussion topics will include the upcoming presidential trip to Indonesia with special emphasis on how the trip relates to trade and investment, climate change, military and security ties, democracy and education.

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