One Year On: Nation Building in Iraq (WORKING DRAFT)

After one year of nation building, the future of Iraq remains shrouded in uncertainty. The US-led Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) has made some progress, all the more remarkable given that it had to improvise due to a lack of post-conflict planning. Schools are being rebuilt, police being trained, and a new Ministry of Defense and an intelligence service have been established. Many Iraqis are optimistic about the future and want Coalition forces finish the job. If US plans go forward, sovereignty will be turned over to the new Iraqi government June 30th – some 15 months after the fall of Baghdad on April 19, 20003 -- and the CPA will be replaced by a massive new US Embassy.

Yet these successes, however important, do not obscure the fact that Iraq is far from stable and still very much imperiled. Ethnic and religious tensions abound, and the Coalition’s first major clash with a Shi’ite faction came of the weekend of April 3-4 – virtually the anniversary of the war. An ongoing “war after the war” developed with hard-line Sunni insurgents several months after the fall of Baghdad that changes in form but has not diminished in intensity. The US and its allies are still fighting a real war in Iraq that could suddenly escalate into a major civil conflict or broader struggle between Coalition forces and elements of both Iraq’s Sunnis and Shi’ites.