The odds of lasting US success in Iraq are now at best even, and may well be worse. The
US can almost certainly win every military battle and clash, but it is far less certain to
win the political and economic war. US success is also heavily dependent on two
variables that the US can influence, but not control. The first is the emergence of a
government that Iraqis see as legitimate and which can effectively govern. The second is
the ability to create Iraqi military and security forces that can largely replace US and
other Coalition forces no later than 2006.