President Plans Long-awaited Visit to a Strategic Ally

Volume I | Issue 3 | 4th November, 2011

President Barack Obama’s long-awaited trip to Australia on November 16 and 17 will provide a welcome opportunity to deepen ties with a long-standing U.S. ally. 

The visit comes at a time when Australia and the United States have mounted efforts to strengthen their alliance through new levels of security and military coordination and have developed a shared vision on the development of emerging regional security and trade architectures in Asia and the Pacific.  

At the September Australia-United States Ministerial (AUSMIN) meeting in San Francisco attended by the Australian ministers of defense and foreign affairs and the U.S. secretaries of defense and state, the two countries agreed that U.S. troops would be granted increased access to three Australian bases in Western Australia. This is expected to allow U.S. troops use of Australian training and exercise ranges and facilitate the pre-positioning of U.S. military equipment. Australian defense minister Stephen Smith called the basing deal “the single biggest change or advancement of alliance relationships since . . . the 1980s.”

Read More | Read Newsletter in PDF


The Week That Was

  • Qantas grounds entire fleet
  • “Worst” oil spill in New Zealand’s history
  • Water crisis strikes Tuvalu

Read more...| Read Newsletter in PDF

Looking Ahead

  • East Asia Summit to test partnership of U.S., Australia, New Zealand
  • Georgetown University to host forum on racial harmony in New Zealand

Read more...| Read Newsletter in PDF


PRESIDENT PLANS LONG-AWAITED VISIT TO A STRATEGIC ALLY

By Murray Hiebert, Senior Fellow & Deputy Director, and Alexander Vagg, Researcher, Pacific Partners Initiative and Southeast Asia Program, CSIS

President Barack Obama’s long-awaited trip to Australia on November 16 and 17 will provide a welcome opportunity to deepen ties with a long-standing U.S. ally. 

The visit comes at a time when Australia and the United States have mounted efforts to strengthen their alliance through new levels of security and military coordination and have developed a shared vision on the development of emerging regional security and trade architectures in Asia and the Pacific.  

At the September Australia-United States Ministerial (AUSMIN) meeting in San Francisco attended by the Australian ministers of defense and foreign affairs and the U.S. secretaries of defense and state, the two countries agreed that U.S. troops would be granted increased access to three Australian bases in Western Australia. This is expected to allow U.S. troops use of Australian training and exercise ranges and facilitate the pre-positioning of U.S. military equipment. Australian defense minister Stephen Smith called the basing deal “the single biggest change or advancement of alliance relationships since . . . the 1980s.”

President Obama and Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who visited Washington in March, are expected to discuss incremental steps to implement the basing agreement during their meetings. They will also discuss ways the United States and Australia can collaborate to prevent threats to both countries from cyberattacks. Such cooperation will be particularly timely: on November 3 the U.S. government released an intelligence report charging China with stealing vast amounts of corporate and economic secrets in cyberspace as a matter of national policy.

The president’s visit, which was delayed twice in 2010 due to the health care debate in Congress and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, will mark the 60th anniversary of the signing of the ANZUS treaty, a document that laid out a shared security arrangement between Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. Australia’s ambassador to Washington, Kim Beasely, argues that the ANZUS alliance is the only treaty partnership the United States established during the Cold War that has intensified rather than waned since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

President Obama will travel to Canberra and Darwin, and Prime Minister Gillard has confirmed that he will address the Australian Parliament. Darwin was the site of the first and most devastating Japanese air attack on Australia during World War II, earning the city the nickname “the Pearl Harbor of Australia.” A stop there gives the president an opportunity to celebrate the long and shared history of the two nations’ defense forces in the Northern Territory. 

Darwin also carries symbolic meaning for the present: another of the city’s nicknames is the Australian “gateway” to Asia, derived from the fact that it is only 500 miles from the easternmost islands of Indonesia. A visit offers a compelling opportunity for the president to highlight Australia and the United States’ mutual interest in furthering engagement with East and Southeast Asia.

The Australia visit falls between three major multilateral meetings involving the United States and countries in the Asia Pacific. The president will host the 21 leaders of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Honolulu on November 11–12, a few days before his visit to Australia. Immediately after his Australia visit, the president travels to Bali, Indonesia, for his first East Asia Summit meeting on November 18. He will hold a summit with the 10 leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) a day earlier.

According to a White House press release, the president’s goal for his Australia trip is to “build on the APEC agenda and expand bilateral cooperation to increase global economic growth, trade, and jobs.”

Ambassador Beazley says that “any time a U.S. president shows up in Australia . . . he’s greeted with a considerable amount of excitement.” This visit will give President Obama an opportunity to further articulate his administration’s view about the U.S. role in the Asia Pacific and how Australia and the United States can work together to achieve their common interests in the region. It will offer a chance to reflect on a 60-year partnership with a steadfast ally, but also to appreciate how that partnership grows more valuable with each passing year. Australia no longer exists in a strategic backwater (as it did during the Cold War), but on the southern edge of the new focal point of global politics and economics.

Back to top  | Read Newsletter in PDF


The Week That Was

Australia

Qantas grounds entire fleet, government forces resolution. In a bold tactic designed to force the government to intervene in a tussle with its labor union, Qantas Airlines canceled all flights on October 29, stranding approximately 70,000 passengers and costing the company $25 million a day. The nation’s “worst labor dispute in a decade” between Qantas and industrial trade unions had been steadily worsening since September, with Qantas claiming almost $90 million in losses from court-ordered payments to unions. Although emergency intervention by Australia’s labor tribunal forced Qantas to resume flights on October 31, incalculable damage has already been done to the company’s reputation and stock market value. The suspended flights caused logistical problems for leaders attending the summit of Commonwealth nations in Perth and for thousands of spectators traveling to the wildly popular Melbourne Cup races.

Australia central bank cuts key interest rates to 4.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its interest rates on November 1 for the first time since April 2009 in response to concerns that the European debt crisis threatens to slow the nation’s resource-driven economy. The quarter percentage cut to 4.5 percent sent the local currency from $1.0530 to $1.0467, and government bonds fell eight basis points to 4.43 percent. The central bank responded to concerns that the global economic slowdown has prompted Australia's underlying inflation rate to fall to its weakest level in 14 years. Prime Minister Julia Gillard welcomed the move as relief to the retail, housing, tourism, and export sectors. 

Gillard abandons refugee swap, more asylum seekers flock to Australia. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has abandoned her government’s controversial plan to ship asylum seekers who arrive by boat to Malaysia. The government said it would now process asylum seekers on Australian soil. Since the prime minister’s agreement with Malaysia, the number of refugees arriving in Australia has increased significantly, causing further polarization between the Liberal and Labor parties. Although human rights organizations like Amnesty International hailed the decision as a victory, political observers say that reform is still needed in Australia’s immigration policy. This reversal is likely to play a large role in the next national elections, scheduled for 2013.

Australia cancels 15,066 student visas. Australia has canceled the student visas of 15,066 foreign nationals for violating the conditions of their visas and more than 3,000 face deportation. The visa cancellations were caused primarily by students failing their classes and working illegally. Indian students suffered the highest number of cancellations. The visa cancellations followed a reduction in the number of international students applying to study in Australia in 2011.

Australia carbon tax set to become law. Australia's House of Representatives on October 12 voted 74 to 72 in favor of Prime Minister Gillard’s plan to introduce a tax on the 500 biggest carbon-emitting companies in Australia. The slim majority was secured with help from three Independent Party members  despite last-minute opposition efforts by the Liberal Party and business groups. The “Clean Energy Bill” was first introduced by the Gillard government in February 2011 with the goal of reducing carbon emissions and global warming. The Senate is expected to pass the bill in mid-November with strong backing from the Australian Green Party. The tax, which would impose a $24.50 charge per ton on emissions starting in July 2012, has faced strong opposition from the Liberal Party, the coal industry, and the general public. Opposition leader Tony Abbott has promised to repeal the tax in 2013 if elected prime minister. The Australian scheme will cover about 60 percent of emissions, making it the most broadly based such scheme in the world.

Australia hopes to complete trade deal with South Korea by end of the year. An Australian free trade agreement (FTA) with South Korea is “near to conclusion,” according to Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd, after a visit to Australia by South Korean president Lee Myung-bak. Reactions to the announcement have been positive among Australian businesses, especially in the cattle industry. A Korea-Australia FTA will allow Australia to compete with the United States, which recently ratified its own trade agreement with Korea. The agreement is expected to boost jobs in Australia’s agricultural and mining sectors.

New Zealand

Oil spill may be “worst” in New Zealand’s history. Approximately 350 tons of oil spilled into the Pacific Ocean and onto parts of New Zealand’s shoreline after a container ship ran aground on Astrolabe Reef 14 miles off the east coast of New Zealand on October 11. Emergency workers have managed to salvage 645 tons of oil from the ship, according to Environment Minister Nick Smith, who is spearheading the government’s response. About 700 tons remain onboard. Damage to the environment by the spill has been significant, killing more than 1,000 birds, coating wildlife with oil, and affecting the nearby wildlife reserve on Mayor Island.

New Zealand’s elections to be held November 26. The economy is expected to dominate political debate in the run-up to elections on November 26, as fears of a third credit downgrade by international credit agencies mount. In 2008, the conservative National Party gained a majority in Parliament, and polls conducted by the New Zealand Herald and others suggest that Prime Minister John Key, who first led the conservative National Party to power in 2008, will be returned to office. Prime Minister Key has pledged that he will maintain spending on national defense and economic recovery if he is reelected.

New report outlines News Zealand’s security responsibilities in Southeast Asia. The Asia New Zealand Foundation, a nonpartisan group committed to improving New Zealand’s understanding about Asia, released a report on October 20 stating that stronger defense capabilities would strengthen Wellington’s relations in Southeast Asia. The report, entitled ASEAN’s Perspective of New Zealand’s Place in Asia, argues that ASEAN values New Zealand’s “low key but effective contributions to ASEAN security,” but is ready for more robust engagement. Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully has said the government intends to examine the report’s recommendations carefully.

All Blacks snare Rugby World Cup after 24-year drought. In a thrilling final match of the World Rugby Cup on October 23, the New Zealand All Blacks defeated the French national team 8–7 before 61,000 spectators in Auckland. The six-week, 48-game tournament cost taxpayers and the New Zealand Rugby Union $39 million, despite the fact that the organizers surpassed their ticket sales target. In addition, the government spent $26 million on organizing festivals, hosting high-level guests, and building new facilities. Rugby World Cup minister Murray McCully hailed the tournament as a great success, citing a Coventry University study that predicted New Zealand will get $1.2 billion in long-term benefits. The total bill for the tournament was approximately $400 million.

pacific Island Countries

Water crisis strikes Tuvalu. An extreme water shortage that began in September continues to cripple the small Pacific Island nation of Tuvalu. Rainfall, which supplies much of the nation’s water, has been well below average for the past six months because of a severe La Niña weather pattern and record-high Pacific Ocean temperatures. In response, Australian, New Zealand, and U.S. defense forces deployed mobile desalinization systems and emergency water supplies to the island. Tuvalu residents and environmentalists have blamed high carbon emissions by developed nations as the cause of the crisis. The drought is expected to continue in the region until at least January.  

Breakthrough visit Down Under by PNG PM? The 20th annual Australia-Papua New Guinea (PNG) Ministerial Forum was held in Canberra on October 12. Issues discussed included the signing of an Economic Cooperation Treaty, political corruption, a review of the PNG electoral system, and visa reform. The forum marked the first visit by newly elected PNG prime minister Peter O’Neill to Australia. Australian think tanks like the Lowy Institute have expressed optimism that Australia’s relations with PNG will be able to improve under the new prime minister, but other analysts remain skeptical of real change in PNG.

Australian police may return to PNG. Australia proposed a plan during the October 12 Australia-PNG Ministerial Forum in Canberra to boost Papua New Guinea’s underfunded and undisciplined police force ahead of elections next June. Prime Minister Gillard says human rights violations in PNG are the primary motivation for expanding the 14-member Australian Federal Police force in the country. A final decision will be made following a review by the Australian government, which is seeking to expand ties with PNG prime minister Peter O’Neill. Australia's previous  security mission to PNG ended in mid-2005.

Back to top | Read Newsletter in PDF


Looking Ahead

Georgetown University to host forum on racial harmony in New Zealand. Georgetown University’s Center for Australian and New Zealand Studies will host a lecture on November 10 on the divisive issue of current race relations in New Zealand. The lecture, entitled “Paradise Lost? Exploring Racial Harmony in New Zealand” will discuss the “myth” of a racial paradise in New Zealand. The speaker, David Small, is a senior lecturer in the School of Educational Studies and Human Development at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand. Interested parties should contact Marie Champagne at CANZ@georgetown.edu.

East Asia Summit (EAS) to test partnership of U.S., Australia, New Zealand. Expectations for the upcoming EAS are high in Australia and New Zealand as President Barack Obama prepares to join 17 other heads of state in Bali on November 18. The Obama administration’s focus on Asia is strongly supported in Australia and New Zealand, and these two nations in cooperation with the United States are expected to stress security and economic arrangements at the summit. Separately, Australian prime minister Julia Gillard will participate in a formal dialogue with her Indonesian counterpart, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, following the EAS.

Back to top | Read Newsletter in PDF


 

For more details on our programs and to follow CSIS with real-time updates, sign on for CSIS Pacific Partners Initiative on Facebook LogoFacebook and follow us on twitter logoTwitter @ PacPartnersDC. Thank you for your interest in U.S. policy in the Pacific and CSIS Pacific Partners. Join the conversation!

Image
Murray Hiebert
Senior Associate (Non-resident), Southeast Asia Program

Alexander Vagg