Skip to main content
  • Sections
  • Search

Center for Strategic & International Studies

User menu

  • Subscribe
  • Sign In

Topics

  • Climate Change
  • Cybersecurity and Technology
    • Cybersecurity
    • Data Governance
    • Intellectual Property
    • Intelligence, Surveillance, and Privacy
    • Military Technology
    • Space
    • Technology and Innovation
  • Defense and Security
    • Counterterrorism and Homeland Security
    • Defense Budget
    • Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation
    • Defense Strategy and Capabilities
    • Geopolitics and International Security
    • Long-Term Futures
    • Missile Defense
    • Space
    • Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation
  • Economics
    • Asian Economics
    • Global Economic Governance
    • Trade and International Business
  • Energy and Sustainability
    • Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts
    • Energy and Geopolitics
    • Energy Innovation
    • Energy Markets, Trends, and Outlooks
  • Global Health
    • Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations
    • Multilateral Institutions
    • Health and Security
    • Infectious Disease
  • Human Rights
    • Building Sustainable and Inclusive Democracy
    • Business and Human Rights
    • Responding to Egregious Human Rights Abuses
    • Civil Society
    • Transitional Justice
    • Human Security
  • International Development
    • Food and Agriculture
    • Governance and Rule of Law
    • Humanitarian Assistance
    • Human Mobility
    • Private Sector Development
    • U.S. Development Policy

Regions

  • Africa
    • North Africa
    • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Americas
    • Caribbean
    • North America
    • South America
  • Arctic
  • Asia
    • Afghanistan
    • Australia, New Zealand & Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Korea
    • Pakistan
    • Southeast Asia
  • Europe
    • European Union
    • NATO
    • Post-Soviet Europe
    • Turkey
  • Middle East
    • The Gulf
    • Egypt and the Levant
    • North Africa
  • Russia and Eurasia
    • The South Caucasus
    • Central Asia
    • Post-Soviet Europe
    • Russia

Sections menu

  • Programs
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Analysis
    • Blogs
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Congressional Testimony
    • Critical Questions
    • Interactive Reports
    • Journals
    • Newsletter
    • Reports
    • Transcript
  • Podcasts
  • iDeas Lab
  • Transcripts
  • Web Projects

Main menu

  • About Us
  • Support CSIS
    • Securing Our Future
Photo: Wang He/Getty Images
Commentary
Share
  • LinkedIn
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Email
  • Printfriendly.com

The President’s Steel Tariff: Making Lemonade Out of Lemons

By William Reinsch

March 2, 2018

The president’s decision to impose a 25 percent tariff on steel has produced the predicted criticism from downstream steel users worried about price and availability of products they have been importing and from foreign governments standing up for their producers and threatening retaliation. Those of us who have worked on steel over the years, and I have on and off for 40 years, have seen this movie before. It is not the industry’s first import crisis, and it is not likely to be its last.

The U.S. steel industry has often succeeded in obtaining import relief because it has been able to establish two fundamental facts. First, it is an important industry, one which is essential to a modern manufacturing economy. Its disappearance would put us at a competitive disadvantage. (The fact that it is also politically important in some key Rust Belt states should also be noted.) Second, it has unquestionably been the victim of unfair trade practices for many years and, as a result, has accrued a certain amount of sympathy and a view by many that fairness and justice demand some redress.

That is not enough to make the critics go away, but it does help explain why the industry has had some success with its arguments. Of course, the fact that, despite periodic bouts of relief, the industry’s overall situation continues to deteriorate tells us that there is more going on here than simply unfair trade practices. And, indeed, the current episode is a bit different from previous ones in that the blame for global overcapacity lies almost entirely with a single country, China, which now accounts for just about half of global capacity.

The ideal solution in a case like this would be a global agreement on overcapacity in which all producers agree to cuts, some much bigger than others. There is a venue for negotiating that—the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity—but progress has been slow, and the United States has not put the energy into it that would be necessary to move something along.

Instead, the president has resorted to a tariff, which will probably have the bad effects the critics are alleging, while at the same time providing protection to the domestic industry. Whether the harm he has done will outweigh the benefits to the industry remains to be seen. We may get a hint in our upcoming election cycle as candidates support or oppose his action, and the voters respond.

The more interesting question concerns foreign retaliation. While it will no doubt occur—plans are being hatched as you are reading this—the countries contemplating it should consider carefully what is most in their interests. The obvious reaction is to hit back at the United States through restrictions on our exports that will cause the greatest political pain here at home. The European Union in particular has a good bit of experience developing painful retaliation plans, so nobody should be surprised if one appears soon.

The less obvious but more useful approach is for other countries to realize that a China-caused overcapacity problem is their problem as much as it is ours—that it is Chinese steel flooding their markets and undercutting their prices—and that a smarter move would be to take action against China similar to what the United States has done. Otherwise, they suffer a triple whammy: U.S. tariffs on their steel, higher prices on U.S. imports into their countries due to their retaliation, and more Chinese steel coming their way rather than ours. Focusing their ire on China would eliminate two of those three problems, and it would have the added benefit of pushing the Chinese to deal directly with the problem it has caused everybody else.

This is admittedly Plan B. A global agreement is the best option, and this one is not a pro-trade solution. It would be no more protected from World Trade Organization (WTO) litigation than our own action will be, but in the absence of a negotiated agreement, it is one way to turn lemons at least partly into lemonade, which we sorely need right now.

William Reinsch holds the Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Written By
William Alan Reinsch
Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business
Media Queries
Contact H. Andrew Schwartz
Chief Communications Officer
Tel: 202.775.3242

Contact Paige Montfort
Media Relations Coordinator, External Relations
Tel: 202.775.3173
Related
Americas, Commentaries, Critical Questions, and Newsletters, Economics, Global Economic Governance, North America, Scholl Chair in International Business, Trade and International Business

Most Recent From William Alan Reinsch

Upcoming Event
CANCELED: Surveying the US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC) State of Play
July 12, 2022
Commentary
The Real Villains
By William Alan Reinsch
June 27, 2022
Report
The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity
By Emily Benson, William Alan Reinsch
June 27, 2022
Critical Questions
Are Market Access Negotiations in the IPEF Unnecessary?
By William Alan Reinsch
June 24, 2022
Commentary
One Step Forward
By William Alan Reinsch
June 21, 2022
In the News
Who Benefits from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework?
Japan Forward | Mizuki Ozada
June 20, 2022
On Demand Event
Making Medical Supply Chains More Secure
June 14, 2022
Commentary
Grumble, Grumble, Grumble
By William Alan Reinsch
June 13, 2022
View all content by this expert
Footer menu
  • Topics
  • Regions
  • Programs
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Analysis
  • Web Projects
  • Podcasts
  • iDeas Lab
  • Transcripts
  • About Us
  • Support Us
Contact CSIS
Email CSIS
Tel: 202.887.0200
Fax: 202.775.3199
Visit CSIS Headquarters
1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Media Queries
Contact H. Andrew Schwartz
Chief Communications Officer
Tel: 202.775.3242

Contact Paige Montfort
Media Relations Coordinator, External Relations
Tel: 202.775.3173

Daily Updates

Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs.

Subscribe to CSIS Newsletters

Follow CSIS
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube
  • Instagram

All content © 2022. All rights reserved.

Legal menu
  • Credits
  • Privacy Policy
  • Reprint Permissions