Progress or Peril? Measuring Iraq's Reconstruction: UPDATE

The CSIS Post-Conflict Reconstruction (PCR) Project issued a report on September 8, 2004 that sets forth a methodology for measuring progress in post-conflict reconstruction efforts and assesses progress and trends in Iraq’s reconstruction from June 2003 through July 2004. The report, Progress or Peril? Measuring Iraq’s Reconstruction, is available online at http://www.csis.org/isp/pcr/ 0409_progressperil.pdf. A supplement to the report, Capturing Iraqi Voices, describes the results of a series of interviews conducted by CSIS in Iraq during June 2004 (http://www.csis.org/isp/pcr/0407_Capturing_Iraqi_Voices.pdf ). Both reports, as well as this supplement, assess progress in the areas of security, governance and participation, economic opportunity, services, and social well-being.

This supplement is an update of Progress or Peril?, using the methodology developed in that report. The methodology involves blending four different source types: media, public (official), polls, and interviews. The PCR Project was not able to conduct interviews in Iraq for this supplement; the findings in this report are based on 279 data points drawn from media, public sources, and polling, covering the period August-October 2004. We collected 115 media points, 134 points from public and official sources, and 30 polling points, which were weighted equally in our overall graphs. The citations used in this report represent a fraction of the information the Project examined for this analysis. The data suggest the following findings:

1. Iraq has still not passed the tipping point, as defined in Progress or Peril, in any of the five sectors of reconstruction reviewed.
2. Iraq’s reconstruction continues to stagnate; it is not yet moving on a sustained positive trajectory toward the tipping point or end-state in any of those sectors.