April 4, 2005
As fertility rates in the developed world decline, immigration is coming to play a decisive role in determining the long-term prospects for population growth and economic growth. Yet most official immigration projections in the United States and abroad remain ad hoc and judgmental. Projecting Immigration: A Survey of the Current State of Practice and Theory argues that much progress could be made if the rich insights offered by immigration theory and empirical research could somehow be integrated into a useable projection method. The report, which was funded by the U.S. Social Security Administration, is the first stage in a larger project aimed at developing a methodological framework for projecting international migration flows.