Regime Vulnerability and Popular Mobilization in Georgia's Rose Revolution
September 1, 2006
In this paper, Cory Welt assesses the causes of Georgia’s November 2003 Rose Revolution. He argues that it is best understood as a conjunction of two factors – one state-based and one society-based. The state-based factor was the regime’s extreme vulnerability to electoral loss or pressure, which explains much of the success of popular mobilization in Georgia. A more confident government, in particular one capable of brandishing a more credible threat of force, would have been able to deter or withstand the not very large protests.
At the same time, without substantial popular mobilization even a teetering regime might buttress itself anew. As Georgia’s own slow-moving mobilization suggests, it is a mistake to assume that regime vulnerability automatically engenders popular mobilization. A collective action problem must still be overcome - if not regarding the fear of punishment, then regarding the perceived benefits of participation.