The Rohingya’s Plight in Bangladesh Is Not Sustainable

Given the many other crises in the world, the plight of the Rohingya is almost forgotten. The United States is the largest aid donor but the world is beset by many new conflicts and humanitarian crises. A high-level visit next month to Washington would be a time to engage Bangladesh on some short-term and perhaps longer-term steps. Bangladesh is host to 1.2 million Rohingya who fled from Myanmar in 2017. The response to the Rohingya crisis is not sustainable as humanitarian assistance from donors such as the United States is dropping. President Biden sent a letter to Sheikh Hasina, the prime minister of Bangladesh, and referred to the Rohingya issue. There are steps the Bangladesh government could take to make the situation more sustainable, but these are politically risky for Bangladesh and therefore will require high-level U.S. engagement. Ultimately, the plight of the Rohingya will require more diplomacy between Bangladesh and Myanmar and very complex conflict resolution within Myanmar.   

The human desperation in Rohingya refugee camps is palpable. Current arrangements are unsustainable and require a global response. Each refugee used to get $12 per person from the World Food Program for monthly food, but aid has rapidly declined with a global economic downturn and competing emergencies such as Ukraine. The monthly food allowance was recently reduced to $10 per person and may soon drop to $6 per month. Simultaneously, rice prices in Bangladesh—a staple foodincreased 39 percent.

In 2017, because of armed attacks and human rights violations, many Rohingya were chased by the Burmese military from Myanmar’s Rakhine State. There are over 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, or as Bangladesh calls them, Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals. Cox’s Bazar, a coastal refugee camp near the border with Rakhine State, is the largest refugee camp in the world. The refugee population continues to increase, with 30,000 children born in the camps annually.

Most refugees and forcibly displaced people are hosted by poor countries, and Bangladesh is no exception. With a per capita income of under $2,500 per person, Bangladesh’s resources are stretched thin. The country is the size of Iowa but has nearly 170 million people. Aside from islands or city-states, it is the world’s most densely populated country.

Consequently, the long-term Bangladeshi residents of Cox’s Bazar are bearing a difficult burden. Since formal employment is illegal for the Rohingya, there are many young people with nothing to do. Temptations including drug smuggling, radicalization, gang activities, and human trafficking all make the camps more insecure.

There is a false accusation that the Rohingya came to Myanmar through British colonialism and therefore the Rohingya should not be citizens of Myanmar. This lie makes it unsafe for the Rohingya to return to Myanmar. Bangladesh and the Rohingya vehemently dispute Myanmar’s accusation, stating the Rohingya have been in Rakhine State for centuries. The Rohingya dress differently from others in the area and the Rohingya language, while somewhat understandable to those in Chittagong, is a distinct dialect.

The Rohingya cannot return to Myanmar until the threat of atrocities from the Burmese military (known as the Tatmadaw) declines. The Bangladeshi government has called for “repatriating” the Rohingya to Myanmar, but this would only subject the refugees to greater persecution. Moreover, forced repatriation is against international law. Talks about a small pilot repatriation project have not yet materialized as the conditions in Rakhine State remain inconducive to such returns in safety and dignity. Some in Dhaka have suggested that the United States, as the largest donor of humanitarian assistance to the Rohingya, should intercede even more to somehow pressure the Myanmar government and pave the way for eventual repatriation. This proposed U.S. influence would in theory require the cooperation of allies, including Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia, but also neighboring countries with considerable interests in Myanmar, such as China and India. 

Meanwhile, China and Russia stress nonintervention and refuse to donate or help alleviate the Rohingya crisis. The Bangladeshi government should engage these free riding countries, especially when both countries are very close to the military regime in Myanmar and have friendly relations with Bangladesh. Bangladesh (unfortunately) voted for only one out of four UN resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, partially out of gratitude for the Soviet Union’s support for its 1971 Liberation War for independence. Moreover, Bangladesh has used Russian financing to purchase weapons and construct its first nuclear power plant. China is Bangladesh’s top trade partner and is building an airport runway in Cox’s Bazar.

It does not help that the relationship between Bangladesh and Myanmar is “extremely delicate.” With only two borders, India and Myanmar, Bangladesh should take the first steps to improve relations.

The U.S. Role in the Crisis

In bilateral talks, senior U.S. officials could stress six essential points with senior Bangladeshi leaders next month.

  1. Education should be prioritized and adjusted. The Rohingya, with the permission of the Bangladeshi government, are getting schooling, but classes are taught in Burmese in preparation for return, but Burmese is less widely understood than Rohingya (a non-written language) and teachers commanding Burmese are difficult to find. It would be better to be educated in Bangla by Chittagonian-speaking teachers (which resembles Rohingya), or in English as this remains a window to the world for Rohingya.  
  2. The Rohingya need to be able to generate their own income by inter alia operating their own businesses, start producing for the market, or otherwise engage in their own livelihood projects. This means formalized economic engagement and market linkages with the local economy in Cox’s Bazar. Bangladesh has been reluctant to allow this, yet the Rohingya cannot continue to remain entirely dependent on humanitarian aid, as the funding for this aid is no longer forthcoming.
  3. Resettlement to countries outside Bangladesh, while worthy of being pursued, is not a solution on its own. The United States is the historic host of the largest number of resettled refugees, and the United States has proposed making the Rohingya a priority community to resettle. At best the United States will likely resettle several thousand to the low tens of thousands. Several other countries are being asked to take refugees, such as Canada, Australia, and some European states. South and Southeast Asian countries are not known for their willingness to take Rohingya (including India) or only reluctantly without giving them formal status (Malaysia). With 30,000 children born each year, and with countries like China, Russia, and most Asian nations taking in zero refugees, resettlement alone is not a solution.
  4. The West might potentially offer a “Jordan Compact” for Bangladesh where the European Union and the United States might offer major trade concessions to Bangladesh in return for allowing refugees to work in a more normalized way in Bangladesh. A Jordan Compact for Bangladesh would have the goal of incentivizing changes on the ground in Bangladesh to improve living conditions for the Rohingya. Trade concessions from leading partners and in partnership with an aid package from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and others would be needed to make this work for both refugees and locals.
  5. Perhaps the Colombia solution should be considered. While Colombia’s decision to naturalize nearly 2 million Venezuelans in 2021 is not currently contemplated by Bangladesh, that may change after Bangladesh’s January 2024 election. An “ask” of this magnitude from the West of Bangladesh would likely require a face-to-face meeting between President Biden and Sheikh Hasina at some point. Whatever the long-term solutions for Rohingya, there will also be a segment of Rohingya which will not be able to return or be resettled and for whom local integration is the way forward.
  6. Repatriation is not happening so long as Rohingya returning to Rakhine State are at risk of being arbitrary arrested, their rights being denied or even killed. Therefore, a series of diplomatic solutions need to be pressed. Bangladesh has an important role to play in this process.

The current arrangement is unsustainable with too many competing crises. Repatriation is unlikely, and naturalization in Bangladesh is presently impossible. Resettlement to a handful of Western countries with Russia, China, and South and Southeast Asia “free riding” is insufficient. The short- to medium-term solution is to give the Rohingya a chance to become self-reliant by developing their skills and livelihood opportunities, which means some engagement with the local economy in Cox’s Bazar. Diplomatic engagement from the Biden administration could make this outcome more likely.

Daniel F. Runde is senior vice president, William A. Schreyer Chair, and director of the Project on Prosperity and Development at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Image
Daniel F. Runde
Senior Vice President; William A. Schreyer Chair; Director, Project on Prosperity and Development