Skip to main content
  • Sections
  • Search

Center for Strategic & International Studies

User menu

  • Subscribe
  • Sign In

Topics

  • Climate Change
  • Cybersecurity and Technology
    • Cybersecurity
    • Data Governance
    • Intelligence, Surveillance, and Privacy
    • Military Technology
    • Space
    • Technology and Innovation
  • Defense and Security
    • Counterterrorism and Homeland Security
    • Defense Budget
    • Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation
    • Defense Strategy and Capabilities
    • Geopolitics and International Security
    • Long-Term Futures
    • Missile Defense
    • Space
    • Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation
  • Economics
    • Asian Economics
    • Global Economic Governance
    • Trade and International Business
  • Energy and Sustainability
    • Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts
    • Energy and Geopolitics
    • Energy Innovation
    • Energy Markets, Trends, and Outlooks
  • Global Health
    • Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations
    • Multilateral Institutions
    • Health and Security
    • Infectious Disease
  • Human Rights
    • Civil Society
    • Transitional Justice
    • Human Security
  • International Development
    • Food and Agriculture
    • Governance and Rule of Law
    • Humanitarian Assistance
    • Private Sector Development
    • U.S. Development Policy

Regions

  • Africa
    • North Africa
    • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Americas
    • Caribbean
    • North America
    • South America
  • Arctic
  • Asia
    • Afghanistan
    • Australia, New Zealand & Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Korea
    • Pakistan
    • Southeast Asia
  • Europe
    • European Union
    • NATO
    • Post-Soviet Europe
    • Turkey
  • Middle East
    • The Gulf
    • Egypt and the Levant
    • North Africa
  • Russia and Eurasia
    • The South Caucasus
    • Central Asia
    • Post-Soviet Europe
    • Russia

Sections menu

  • Programs
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Analysis
    • Blogs
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Congressional Testimony
    • Critical Questions
    • Interactive Reports
    • Journals
    • Newsletter
    • Reports
    • Transcript
  • Podcasts
  • iDeas Lab
  • Transcripts
  • Web Projects

Main menu

  • About Us
  • Support CSIS
    • Securing Our Future
Critical Questions
Share
  • LinkedIn
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Email
  • Printfriendly.com

Saudi Arabia’s Shifting Line of Succession

April 29, 2015

Q1: What do the shifts in the line of succession in Saudi Arabia mean?

A1: First and foremost, they represent the consolidation of power in the hands of the Sudairi branch of the royal family (from which King Salman, former King Fahd, and former Crown Princes Sultan and Nayef come). They are all descendants of a single mother who both came from a powerful tribe and was one of the favorite wives of King Abdulaziz ibn Saud, the founder of modern Saudi Arabia. The shifts in Saudi Arabia seem to marginalize the descendants of other late kings, including King Abdullah and King Faisal, which count among them many talented leaders in Saudi public life.

Q2: Does this mean anything for stability in Saudi Arabia?

A2: In the short term, there are not serious threats to the royal family. However, one of the ongoing balancing acts in Saudi Arabia is keeping a growing royal family satisfied and feeling included. There are literally thousands of princes, and perhaps a hundred or so will feel that this decisive shift in the line of succession affects their life chances profoundly. The new line of succession will need to both assert its control and ensure that those excluded still feel deeply vested in preserving the system. Almost all of the resultant politics will be invisible to anyone outside the royal family.

Q3: What does this mean for the United States?


A3: Two Saudis with close ties to the United States got a huge boost from the changes. Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef is a hard-working technocrat who has worked closer with the United States than any other Saudi on counterterrorism and intelligence. Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir is a Washington veteran and an extremely effective Washington operator who was extremely close to the late King Abdullah. Both men have deep ties with leaders in the Republican and Democratic parties, and they have earned tremendous respect for their intellects and their efforts. Their elevation suggests that Saudi Arabia continues to consider the U.S. relationship absolutely vital to the country’s security, now and long into the future.

It is worth noting that, in naming Jubeir, the king departed from the strong Gulf precedent of ensuring the “sovereignty ministries”—foreign affairs, defense and intelligence—remain with members of the royal family. While technical ministries like the economy and energy are often left to talented outsiders, the ruling families in the Arab Gulf have sought the fierce loyalty of close family members when making these appointments.

Jon B. Alterman is senior vice president, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

Critical Questions
is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2015 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Written By
Jon B. Alterman
Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program
Media Queries

Contact H. Andrew Schwartz
Chief Communications Officer
Tel: 202.775.3242

Contact Caleb Diamond
Media Relations Manager and Editorial Associate
Tel: 202.775.3173

Related
Arabian Peninsula and Iraq, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Defense and Security, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Sustainability, Environment and Governance, Governance and Rule of Law, Great Powers and Geostrategy, International Development, Middle East, Middle East Program, The Gulf, Themes

Most Recent From Jon B. Alterman

In the News
Kamala Harris plans to prioritize cybersecurity and global health in foreign policy platform
CBS News | Tim Perry
February 24, 2021
On Demand Event
Is "Freeze for Freeze” A Viable Pathway to Re-engage with Iran?
February 24, 2021
Commentary
The Smart Way out of the Middle East
By Jon B. Alterman
February 22, 2021
In the News
Biden steps into global scene upended by Trump's ego-driven tumult
CNN | Kevin Liptak, Vivian Salama
January 30, 2021
In the News
F-35 Sales To UAE: What Will Being A Major Security Partner Mean
Breaking Defense | Riad Kahwaji
January 28, 2021
In the News
Reviving the Iran nuclear deal will test Joe Biden
Financial Times | David Gardner
January 27, 2021
Commentary
Iran Will Still Be a Slog
By Jon B. Alterman
January 25, 2021
In the News
Yemen, On Brink of Collapse, May Suffer Further After Trump Decision on Ansar Allah
ABC News | Guy Davies, Angus Hines, Ian Pannell
January 24, 2021
View all content by this expert
Footer menu
  • Topics
  • Regions
  • Programs
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Analysis
  • Web Projects
  • Podcasts
  • iDeas Lab
  • Transcripts
  • About Us
  • Support Us
Contact CSIS
Email CSIS
Tel: 202.887.0200
Fax: 202.775.3199
Visit CSIS Headquarters
1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Media Queries

Contact H. Andrew Schwartz
Chief Communications Officer
Tel: 202.775.3242

Contact Caleb Diamond
Media Relations Manager and Editorial Associate
Tel: 202.775.3173

Daily Updates

Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs.

Subscribe to CSIS Newsletters

Follow CSIS
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube
  • Instagram

All content © 2021. All rights reserved.

Legal menu
  • Credits
  • Privacy Policy
  • Reprint Permissions