Securing the Gulf: Key Threats and Options for Enhanced Cooperation

The US and its Arab Gulf allies face the steadily increasing threat that some form of conflict may occur with Iran in the coming years, and accordingly, they must develop the most effective possible deterrent to Iran’s military ambitions. The Arab Gulf states are already making major progress in developing suitable deterrent and war fighting capabilities which offer the best hope of pushing Iran into meaningful negotiations, as well as containing it any conflict if it begins. 

There is, however, much more that the Arab Gulf states can do to exploit their vast superiority in military spending and arms imports, and to make their forces effective. The Burke Chair is issuing a new study of how these improvements can be made, of how the Arab Gulf states can create a more effective approach to collective security as part of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and of how the US can adjust its strategy to become a more effective partner. This study is entitled Securing the Gulf: Key Threats and Options for Enhanced Cooperation. It is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/130219_Securing_the_Gulf.pdf

The study’s contents include:

The Arab Gulf States: Security Challenges and Threats    1

INTERNAL STABILITY AS THE FOUNDATION OF ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF SECURITY    1

COUNTERTERRORISM AND INTERNAL SECURITY    1

EXTERNAL THREATS: THE PERIPHERY AND IRAN    2

Iranian Asymmetric and Irregular Warfare Threats    3

Iranian Conventional Military Threats    6

Iranian vs. Arab Gulf Air and Air Defense Resources    7

Iranian vs. Arab Gulf Naval Resources    2

Iranian vs. Arab Gulf Land Resources    15

Iraq as the Wild Card    16

Iranian Long-Range Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction    23

Iran’s Longer-Range Missile Forces    23

Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction    30

Reinforcing the Strengths of the Arab Gulf States    34

THE SEARCH FOR UNITY IN THE ARAB GULF    34

PRESSURES FOR GREATER UNITY    35

AREAS OF GROWING COOPERATION    38

ARAB GULF STATE SECURITY COOPERATION WITH THE US, THE UK, AND FRANCE    39

Making Effective Use of Vastly Superior Resources    47

Further Efforts to Strengthen Interoperability, Integration, and the GCC    52

PLANNING AND INTEROPERABILITY    52

Create a GCC Force Planning Exercise    52

Create a Standardization and Interoperability Committee and Staff    53

Create a Technology and Procurement Committee and Staff    53

Create a Working Group on Arms Control    53

COORDINATE LOGISTICS, SUSTAINABILITY, AND READINESS    53

BUILDING COMMON TRAINING AND EXERCISE CAPACITY    54

Survey Training Facilities to determine how to ensure best use on a GCC-wide basis    54

Focus on Key Contingencies    54

COMMAND, CONTROL, COMMUNICATIONS, COMPUTER, INTELLIGENCE (C4I), SENSOR, AND BATTLE MANAGEMENT (BM SYSTEMS    54

Create a Fully Integrated Air and Surface-to-Air Missile Unit Control and Warning System    55

Create a Fully Integrated Maritime Surveillance System    55

Create a Joint Intelligence Center    55

GCC Net Assessment Group    56

PREPARING FOR MISSILE AND WMD THREATS    56

Areas For Improved Planning and Dialogue    57

Create a Joint, Integrated Missile Defense System    57

FOCUSING ON OTHER KEY MISSION AREAS    60

Iraq, the Iraqi Border and Kuwaiti “Hinge”    60

Yemen Border Security and Threats    60

Mine, Anti-Submarine (ASW), and Naval Asymmetric Warfare    61

Strait/Gulf of Oman/Indian Ocean/Red Sea/Horn of Africa    62

IMPROVING INTERNAL SECURITY EFFORTS    62

GCC Identity Cards, Passport Data    62

A GCC-wide Intelligence Effort for Counterterrorism and Dealing with Popular Unrest    63

GCC Internal Security Center    63

Common Counterterrorism Training    63

Common Police and Crowd Control Standards and Training    63

A GCC-Wide Rapid Reaction Forces for Counterterrorism and Dealing with Violent Unrest    64

IMPROVING ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY: PASSIVE DEFENSE    64

CREATING MORE EFFECTIVE COOPERATION WITH POWER PROJECTION FORCES OUTSIDE THE GCC    65

Partnership with Europe (UK and France)    65

Partnership with the US    66

ENCOURAGING STABILITY THROUGH ECONOMIC, EDUCATIONAL, AND SOCIAL MEASURES    66

Education    67

GCC Domestic and Foreign Labor Policies    67

Setting Common Social and Economic Standards/Goals    67

Building Dignity, Trust, and Faith in Government Integrity    68

Creating GCC Study and Planning Efforts    68

THE IMPORTANCE OF INTEGRATED CIVIL-MILITARY SECURITY EFFORTS    69


This study draws on two detailed analyses of the military balance in the Gulf. Part One  -- the analysis of the asymmetric and conventional balance in the Gulf, US and Iranian competition, and US strategic interests in the region -- is now available on the CSIS web site: This study is entitled: US and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions, and is now available on the CSIS web site at https://www.csis.org/programs/burke-chair-strategy/iran/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition. 

Part II– covering Iran’s missile forces, nuclear developments, and Israeli and US options for preventive strikes and containment has also been updated. It is entitled US and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions and is available on the CSIS web site at https://www.csis.org/programs/burke-chair-strategy/iran/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition.

Other recent studies in this series include a study entitled Patterns of Violence in Iraq, https://www.csis.org/analysis/patterns-violence-iraq, and the following additional studies on U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition, https://www.csis.org/programs/burke-chair-strategy.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Sanctions game: Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change - Examines the impact of sanctions on the Iranian regime, Iran’s energy sector, and the prospects for regime change in Tehran.

Iraq After US Withdrawal: US Policy and the Iraqi Search for Security and Stability - Examines the role Iran has played in Iraq since 2003, and how the US has tried to counter it.

U.S.-Iranian Competition in the Levant: Parts I & II – Examine the changing military balance in the region;  US and Iranian interests in Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Egypt and Syria; and the internal stability of each state in a time of political upheaval.

The United States and Iran: Competition involving Turkey and the South Caucasus - Analyzes the US and Iranian competition over influence in Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan - Examines the important role Iran plays in the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan, and how the US and Iranian rivalry affects Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia - Examines the complex and evolving relationships between China, Russia, Iran and the US.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Competition Involving the EU, EU3, and non-EU European States - Examines the role the EU, and in particular the EU3, have played as the U.S.’s closest allies in its competition with Iran.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic CompetitionThe Impact of Latin America, Africa, and the Peripheral States - Examines the extent and importance of the competition between the US and Iran in the rest of the world.