Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Southeast Asia Challenges for the Incoming Administration
December 15, 2016
President-elect Donald Trump’s foreign policy team is taking shape, with the choice of ExxonMobil chief executive Rex Tillerson for secretary of state and retired Gen. James Mattis for secretary of defense. The selection of Tillerson and Mattis—both well-respected individuals with a wealth of international experience—is a positive first signal about the seriousness and capability of Trump’s foreign policy team. Tillerson—an active board member of CSIS—is a pragmatic and centrist realist who has worked on projects in Asia for many years. Mattis, while predominantly a Middle East hand, has spoken publicly of the need to “counterbalance” China to deny it “veto power over territorial, security, and economic conditions in the Pacific.”
The U.S. relationship with China is the world’s most important bilateral relationship, and Southeast Asia is carefully watching what happens on this front. Trump’s questioning of the longstanding “One-China” policy unless Beijing makes concessions over its handling of currency, its military buildup in the South China Sea, and North Korea’s nuclear program created some heartburn in Southeast Asian capitals. The region fears that tensions between Washington and Beijing or U.S. trade sanctions against China could hurt Southeast Asian exporters and the regional production networks that run through China. For the United States to push China in some critical areas but not harm the region’s economy will be very tricky for the incoming administration.
Southeast Asia is also anxious about the United States’ commitment to the region and ensuring that the United States plays a leadership role, sustaining the investments, focus, and energy experienced under the outgoing administration. Regional leaders face doubts about the United States’ ongoing willingness and ability to sustain regional leadership at a time when China is seeking to replace the United States as the region’s leading economic and strategic partner. A big challenge for the Trump administration will be how to reassure the region during this time of transition.
Another big challenge will be figuring out how to proactively engage the region on economic issues without the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP—the flagship initiative for U.S. economic engagement in Asia for the past seven years—was of particular importance in Southeast Asia, where economic issues take precedence. Four Southeast Asian countries—Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam—had signed the TPP. Many of the United States’ partners in the TPP are now considering whether to implement the TPP on their own, in addition to pivoting to the 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a less ambitious trade arrangement that includes China but not the United States.
The TPP promised years of constructive economic engagement in Southeast Asia, as member states worked together on its implementation and non-members like the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia discussed whether they should also join. Trump’s shelving of the TPP will leave a massive hole in U.S. regional economic policy in Southeast Asia that will need to be filled with other initiatives if the United States hopes to engage Southeast Asian countries on the issues that matter most to them.
Security challenges will also need to be addressed, most notably ongoing tensions between China and Southeast Asian claimants—Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam—in the South China Sea. Beijing’s behavior in the South China Sea has been relatively restrained since the ruling against it in July by an international tribunal, perhaps because new Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has decided to shelve the ruling in the hope he can achieve some economic deals with Beijing. But it is likely only a matter of time before China pushes the envelope once more.
China’s ongoing construction of military facilities in the Spratly Islands is increasing China’s advantage over its smaller neighbors, who will continue to look to the United States for backing and assistance. The United States faces a difficult balancing act in the South China Sea as it attempts to avoid conflict, defend international rules and norms, uphold alliances and partnerships, and maintain a productive relationship with China. Beijing may well decide early on to test the new U.S. administration in the South China Sea, so the incoming team may not have long to figure out its strategy.
Philippine president Duterte has further complicated South China Sea dynamics. Duterte’s efforts to improve relations with China decrease the chances of an unwanted confrontation in the South China Sea between China and a U.S. ally. But the way Duterte has gone about bettering relations with China has not been helpful to allied efforts to safeguard Philippine rights in the South China Sea. In particular, his call to end both the alliance and access for U.S. forces to the Philippines, since walked back by his key cabinet officials, threatens the ability of the United States to credibly act as a security bulwark against Chinese adventurism in Southeast Asia.
Duterte’s ongoing drug war, which has killed nearly 6,000 people, could also remain a thorn in relations between the two allies. But so far little is known about how much Trump will focus on human rights in foreign relations. According to Duterte’s recounting of his phone call with Trump, it seems the Philippine leader thought there was a real possibility of a reset under the incoming administration.
Relations with Thailand, the other U.S. treaty ally in Southeast Asia, have been in the doldrums since a military coup toppled an elected civilian government in May 2014. Washington responded by cutting off some military assistance and holding the regime at arm’s length, which prompted the junta to flirt with moving closer to China. In August, a referendum on a draft constitution allowing for a tightly controlled democracy was passed by Thai voters, prompting the military rulers to promise elections in late 2017. That date may slip to early 2018 due to the year of mourning following the recent death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej. The incoming U.S. team will have to figure out if the move toward elections provides an opportunity to begin to reset relations with its oldest ally in Asia.
Myanmar once again poses a challenge for Washington. The United States celebrated when Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy swept into power in a landslide election victory in late 2015. It was expected that the transition from five decades of military rule would be difficult and fraught with problems like tensions with the military, which still retains sizeable clout, and ongoing fighting with ethnic armed groups along the country’s frontier.
The biggest crisis to face the new Myanmar government is communal violence involving the Rohingya Muslim minority in western Rakhine State, which erupted on October 9 when nine police officers were killed in attacks on several border posts. The military responded with harsh counterinsurgency measures that have resulted in the deaths of over 80 people, the burning of villages, and the suspension of emergency assistance to the Rohingya from the international community. The incoming U.S. team will face the challenge of persuading Aung San Suu Kyi’s administration to allow the resumption of humanitarian aid and to move quickly to tackle Rakhine’s communal violence and dire poverty.
Murray Hiebert is senior adviser and deputy director of the CSIS Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Geoffrey Hartman is a fellow with the Southeast Asia Program.
Anniversary of disappearance of Lao agronomist Sombath Somphone
December 15 marks the fourth anniversary of the disappearance of Lao civil society leader Sombath Somphone in 2012. Sombath was last seen on a CCTV camera being stopped at a police checkpoint in the capital of Vientiane. Foreign governments, including the United States where Sombath studied, and civil society organizations have repeatedly called on the Lao government to launch an impartial and thorough investigation into Sombath’s disappearance. Lao officials insist their investigations have not turned up any information about Sombath.
Malaysian prime minister leads protest against Myanmar’s “genocide” of Rohingya
Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak led a December 4 rally against increasing violence and persecution faced by the Muslim minority Rohingya in Myanmar. Najib called the ongoing crackdown by Myanmar’s military in western Rakhine State a “genocide” against the Rohingya, lambasted State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi for her alleged complacency, and called for intervention by the United Nations, International Criminal Court, and Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
Myanmar receives continued pushback from Annan and others over Rohingya treatment
State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and the Myanmar government have received considerable criticism from the international community amid increasing violence and reports of human rights abuses in Rakhine State. Accusations of “ethnic cleansing” of the Rohingya in Rakhine State have led to calls for the government to do more to protect the Rohingya, as well as some to question Aung San Suu Kyi’s status as a Noble Peace Prize laureate. Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said he is “deeply concerned” about the alleged abuses, but the Advisory Commission on Rakhine State—of which Annan is a member—has not yet issued recommendations to address the ongoing violence.
Philippine vice president resigns from cabinet
Vice President Leni Robredo resigned from her cabinet position as the chair of the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council on December 5. Robredo decided to resign after she was uninvited from attending cabinet meetings amid a rapidly deteriorating working relationship with President Rodrigo Duterte stemming from Robredo’s outspoken criticism of many of Duterte’s policies. Robredo remains vice president despite her resignation from the cabinet and says she will work to support Duterte’s positive initiatives for the benefit of the Filipino people.
Thai king shuffles membership of privy council
King Maha Vajiralongkorn on December 6 appointed a new 11-member privy council, with 8 councillors from the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej’s council retaining their positions, including council president General Prem Tinsulanonda. The three new appointees are all military generals, reflecting a preference for the military government and an apparent attempt to balance among military factions in Thailand’s political elite.
Indonesia arrests 11 for treason ahead of latest protests against Jakarta governor
The Indonesian national police force arrested 11 people on December 2 in connection with an alleged plot to gather support to impeach President Joko Widodo during the latest protest calling for the arrest of Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama on blasphemy charges. The arrested suspects included Rachmawati Sukarnoputri, sister of former president Megawati Sukarnoputri; Ahmad Dhani, a popular Indonesian rock singer; and two former army generals. Eight of the suspects were released the following day, while three remained detained for further questioning.
Cambodian opposition leader tried in exile, deputy pardoned after reconciling with prime minister
King Norodom Sihamoni on December 2 pardoned acting opposition leader Kem Sokha at the request of Prime Minister Hun Sen. Sokha had been in hiding since being sentenced to five months in prison for refusing to appear in court to answer questions related to defamation charges involving his alleged mistress. Additionally, exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy was tried in absentia on December 9 for conspiring to incite chaos in Cambodia by posting false documents on his Facebook page. A verdict in Rainsy’s case is expected on December 22.
Indonesian police foil planned terrorist attack
Indonesian police on December 10 thwarted a possible terrorist attack on the presidential palace in Jakarta. Police say the plan was to use a female suicide bomber to attack the palace during a weekly ceremony open to the public. Four people suspected of being members of the network of Bahrun Naim, an Indonesian currently fighting for the Islamic State in Syria, were arrested in connection with the plot.
Mahathir reaches out to former rivals at opposition party conference
Former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad attended the December 5 annual conference of the Democratic Action Party (DAP), the largest party in Malaysia’s opposition coalition. The visit was unprecedented, as the traditionally ethnic Chinese DAP and Malay nationalist Mahathir were harsh critics of one another during Mahathir’s 22 years as prime minister. Mahathir now leads the recently formed Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia party and is attempting to integrate it into the coalition opposing the long-ruling United Malays National Organization, Mahathir’s former party.
Singapore, Malaysia move forward on high-speed rail link
Singapore and Malaysia on December 13 signed an agreement finalizing the requirements, frameworks, and governmental arrangements needed to build a high-speed rail line linking Kuala Lumpur with Singapore. A joint statement by Singapore prime minister Lee Hsien Loong and Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak welcomed the “historic” commitment to the “marquee” high-speed rail project. The 217-mile, eight-station line—which is planned to be completed within ten years—will cut travel time between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur to 90 minutes.
Vietnam signs civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India
Vietnam and India signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement on December 9 that would strengthen cooperation between the two countries and provide Indian support for capacity building and training of Vietnamese nuclear scientists. Vietnam has existing deals with Japan and Russia to construct nuclear power plants in Vietnam.
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