Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: U.S.-ASEAN Relations: Charting Next Steps During the 40th Anniversary

U.S.-ASEAN Relations: Charting Next Steps During the 40th Anniversary

 

The year 2017 is a milestone for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). During this 50th anniversary of the 10-nation bloc, ASEAN finds itself representing a region that is prospering and peaceful overall, having successfully both limited its ambitions and included disparate political, economic, and cultural systems. But the group suffers from persistent criticism of its consensus approach, which can result in a least-common-denominator way of doing business—leading to paralysis and preventing the organization from acting decisively on important regional challenges. ASEAN’s place, too, in a U.S.-China rivalry over influence in Asia is becoming a tougher needle to thread. Bold action may not characterize ASEAN, but if it was never meant to, how can that be a failure?

With a population of 630 million and a combined economy of $2.5 trillion, much of the organization’s focus through its 50-year existence has been on economics and the integration mechanisms needed to form a single regional market. The launch of the ASEAN Economic Community last year was the culmination of decades of planning and represents a signal that political and security concerns are secondary priorities. Despite criticism, this is a practical choice that has worked well for Southeast Asia, whose nations’ growth rates over the last generation are evidence.

ASEAN has also made itself into the focal point for regional architecture. It has enmeshed its member countries, neighbors, and far-flung others with interests in the region into an overlapping web of institutions, meetings, and working groups that address issues at the highest levels and through the cumbersome process of consensus building. The concept of ASEAN “centrality” to regional forums like the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) speaks to the way the region has successfully brought other countries, including China, to the table for international dialogue. While no one ASEAN country can yet compete for influence as a great power, together the member states have shown the role they can currently play best in the international system.

Although investment, trade, and economic integration may come first, the principal concern to ASEAN in the security realm is the South China Sea. China’s confidence, expansive influence, and determination to alter the status quo have changed the game considerably over the last decade—witness the impossibility of even referencing the Arbitral Tribunal’s strong ruling on China’s claims (in favor of the Philippines) last July in a joint ASEAN statement. Cambodia’s refusal to support language from a ruling hailed worldwide as a clear rejection of China’s actions—and subsequent public thanks from China for doing so—is as clear a signal as needed of current power dynamics. That Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte himself has “set aside” the ruling in order to avoid “imposing” on China confirms this.

The Philippines holds the rotating ASEAN chair during this anniversary year, which has as its theme “Partnering for Change, Engaging the World.” As outlined by Duterte, the regional bloc has six priorities for the year:

  • A people-oriented and people-centered ASEAN
  • Peace and stability in the region
  • Maritime security and cooperation
  • Inclusive innovation and growth
  • ASEAN’s resiliency
  • ASEAN as a model of regionalism and a global player

Nothing in these priorities suggests that ASEAN will approach its circumstances differently this year than in the past. The focus on stability, cooperation, and inclusion points to an organization that will remain flexible and responsive to its environment. While discussion of maritime security is a priority, it will likely take the form of trying to achieve progress on the framework for the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea rather than more concrete moves to dissuade China’s construction in the area.

Of interest, too, during this anniversary year is the evolution of the relationship between the United States and ASEAN. Next week, CSIS and the U.S. Embassy in Manila will hold a conference to explore key issues between the United States and ASEAN—an event helping to mark the 40th anniversary of U.S.-ASEAN relations. Convening a small group of former government officials, academics, journalists, innovators, and young leaders, CSIS is partnering with the Albert del Rosario Institute and Asia Society Philippines to develop recommendations for the next phase of the relationship.

With the November election of Donald Trump, CSIS has already offered recommendations for the new administration on how to approach Southeast Asia.

The conference next week in Manila should allow for more focus on how the United States and ASEAN can support each other in a very uncertain time and what adjustments might be needed to reflect changing realities.

Asia policy in the United States has traditionally been the beneficiary of bipartisan consensus. The Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” was characterized by actions on several fronts, including additional military assets deployed to the region and the pursuit of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. But the administration also excelled at one of the simplest ways to remain part of the strategic conversation in the region—showing up.

The calendar of meetings for the institutions that make up the Asia Pacific’s regional architecture is daunting, but the Obama administration prioritized sending U.S. officials to these meetings. President Barack Obama himself visited Southeast Asia nine times in eight years, including stops in all ASEAN countries except Brunei, for bilateral and multilateral meetings like the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and EAS.

We strongly recommend that the Trump administration preserve this practice of “showing up” to reassure ASEAN allies and partners. While it remains to be seen whether Trump will take part in multilateral meetings in the way his predecessors have, his involvement in EAS and APEC will signal to the region a continuity of U.S. commitment. Other members of the administration, including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense James Mattis, may need to fill in where Trump is less inclined to participate. Downgrading participation is usually a bad sign, but an understanding may develop that in this particular case, the region may benefit from the presence of other senior officials.

Approaching the end of his term in office in February 2016, Obama invited the heads of the 10 ASEAN nations to a summit in Sunnylands, California. To build on this momentum and to ingrain cooperation at the highest levels between the United States and ASEAN, Trump should invite the ASEAN leaders back to the United States this year.

The table is set for ASEAN’s 50th year, and the Philippines is ready with its priorities for the region. Given uncertainties resulting from the 2016 U.S. election and shifting geopolitical momentum, it is critical that the new administration quickly makes clear its policy priorities in the Asia Pacific and the role it sees for Southeast Asia in this dynamic region.

Shannon Hayden is associate director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

Biweekly Update

Half-brother of North Korean leader killed in Malaysia
Kim Jong Nam, the half brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, died after an attack at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport on February 13. Malaysian police have arrested four people in connection with the suspected poison attack and are seeking four North Korean men who fled Malaysia the day of the attack. North Korea's ambassador to Kuala Lumpur has questioned the integrity of the investigation, claiming it was politically motivated, but Malaysian officials dismissed the accusations as “baseless.”

Jakarta gubernatorial election heading to a runoff after incumbent fails to win a majority
Unofficial results from Jakarta’s February 15 gubernatorial election have incumbent governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama winning 43 percent of the vote, short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff election. Anies Baswedan, a former minister of education and culture, came in a close second with 40 percent. Agus Yudhoyono, a former army officer and son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, bowed out of the race after receiving only 17 percent of the vote. Analysts expect Yudhoyono’s supporters to favor Baswedan in the runoff election on April 19.

Prominent opposition senator in the Philippines charged with drug-related crimes
The Philippine Department of Justice on February 17 filed three drug-related complaints against outspoken opposition senator Leila de Lima, with a hearing scheduled for February 24. The courts issued a warrant for de Lima’s arrest on February 23. De Lima is being charged for alleged involvement in an illegal drug trafficking ring inside the New Bilibid Prison while she served as justice secretary in the previous administration. The charges are seen as a personal attack against de Lima, chair of the Philippine Commission on Human Rights, who has been a vocal opponent of President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs.

Philippine Catholics protest extrajudicial killings and reintroduction of death penalty
Thousands of Catholics took to the streets of Manila on February 18 to protest the extrajudicial killings associated with President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs and his plans to reinstate the death penalty. Police estimate that 10,000 people took part in the march—dubbed the “Walk for Life” prayer rally—which was endorsed by the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP). The rally took place almost two weeks after the CBCP released a pastoral letter read aloud at churches across the Philippines, which said that killing people was not the answer to the trafficking of illegal drugs.

Cambodian opposition party leader resigns from leadership role
Sam Rainsy, the exiled president of the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), resigned as party president on February 11 in response to legislation introduced in the National Assembly that was widely viewed as a direct attack on Rainsy and the CNRP. The legislation, now approved, allows the assembly to dissolve political parties if party leaders commit “serious mistakes.” Courts in Cambodia, over which the ruling party has significant influence, had convicted Rainsy on a series of defamation charges, which prompted him to seek exile in France. The CNRP will vote in April 2018 to elect a new party president, with party vice president Kem Sokha serving as acting party president in the interim.

Thailand announces further delay to election schedule
Thailand’s deputy prime minister, Wissanu Krea-ngam, on February 8 announced a further delay to the election schedule, with elections, originally scheduled for 2016, pushed back to 2018. Wissanu initially said elections would be held “one year from today,” but later backtracked to clarify that an official date has not been confirmed. Two main factors—the October 2016 death and subsequent year-long mourning period for the late king, Bhumipol Adulyadej, and changes to the draft constitution requested by the new king, Maha Vajiralongkorn—have contributed to the widely anticipated delay.

Myanmar claims former army officer ordered killing of prominent lawyer
Myanmar’s presidential office announced on February 15 that it believed Aung Win Khaing, a retired army lieutenant colonel, was responsible for planning the January 29 assassination of prominent lawyer and ruling party adviser U Ko Ni at Yangon International Airport. The presidential office said the assassination was intended “to destabilize the state,” and claimed that Aung Win Khaing paid his older brother, Aung Win Zaw—who hired a gunman to shoot U Ko Ni—$73,000 for the assassination. The whereabouts of Aung Win Khaing are unknown.

Exercise Cobra Gold under way in Thailand
The annual Exercise Cobra Gold—the largest multilateral exercise in Asia—began on February 14 and will conclude on February 24. Twenty-nine nations are taking part in this year’s exercise, along with about 3,600 U.S. personnel. The size and scope of the exercise has been scaled back since the 2014 coup, but Admiral Harry Harris, the commander of U.S. Pacific Command and highest-ranking U.S. attendee since 2014, kicked off this year’s exercise. Harris reiterated the deep and enduring relationship between Thailand and the United States in a statement opening the exercise.

Duterte to review mine closure order after industry backlash
Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte on February 18 said he will review an order to close more than half of the country’s mines for environmental violations, less than a week after saying he supported the decision. Philippine environment secretary Regina Lopez on February 2 ordered the closure of 23 of the country's 41 mines and the suspension of 5 others after an audit uncovered numerous environmental violations. In response, an industry group questioned the fairness of the audit, and mining companies have threatened legal action. The closure order is now on hold while the government’s Mining Industry Coordinating Council—cochaired by Lopez and the finance secretary—undertakes a review of the audit.

Mining standoff continues in Indonesia despite government’s offer to lift copper export ban
The Indonesian government on February 17 offered to end a five-week copper export ban and grant U.S. mining company Freeport-McMoRan a one-year export permit on the condition that Freeport switch from its current contract to a special mining permit that requires higher taxes and royalty payments and the divestment of 51 percent of its Indonesian subsidiary. In response, Freeport declared that it can no longer meet its contractual obligations on copper shipments and the head of its Indonesian subsidiary resigned. Freeport remains unwilling to abandon its current contract and has threatened to take Indonesia to arbitration if a compromise cannot be reached within 120 days. Indonesia’s Grasberg mine—the third-largest copper mine in the world—produces about 3.5 percent of global supply and is under contract to Freeport until 2021.
 


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