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Jon Alterman: Sunil John is the founder of Asda’a BCW and the president for the Middle East and North Africa for BCW, one of the top three public relations firms in the Middle East. He has been running the Arab Youth Survey for 12 years, and he's our guest today. Sunil, welcome to Babel.
Sunil John: Thank you, Jon. It's a pleasure to be on your show.
Jon Alterman: You run this survey of Arab youth. What's the background of the survey and why do you do it?
Sunil John: Way back in 2006, 2007, I would attend a lot of World Economic Forum meetings in the Middle East and in Davos. There would be special panel discussions about the Middle East, and all of these learned speakers would say, "The Middle East is known for its young demographics. 60 percent of the population is below the age of 30." When you look at it today, you're looking at about 200 million Arab youth. These speakers would then talk about why the youth is really the wealth of the nation, and that the biggest problem the region has is unemployment, and they need to create 100 million jobs in the next 10 years. I would hear that year on year, with no changes. Then I said, "What do these people know about the Arab youth?"
I realized that our region—the Middle East region—is so data poor, and I saw a huge opportunity to do something that makes a difference for the region. We started that in a small way, Jon, in 2008. I can tell you, we did about nine countries, we did about 1,600-1,800 interviews with young people. I tell you, nobody really looked at it with any great amount of importance. Because the region didn't have the kind of legacy to look at evidence-based data to inform policy making.
But something changed in 2011, and that was the Arab Spring. That is the time where the youth went on the street and demanded change in all these various large populous countries like Egypt and Tunisia and all of the other countries that we know about. Suddenly, when we announced our survey in 2011, I still remember we had an in-camera briefing for Arab diplomats in Washington, DC. And we said, "We're going to give you the results of our Arab Youth Survey," and that was the third or the fourth Arab Youth Survey—
Jon Alterman: The third.
Sunil John: —and the room was chockablock with Arab diplomats, furiously writing notes, because they needed to report it back to their government. That's when we really hit the spot. Things suddenly changed because when you looked at data in eight, nine, and 10, for anybody, they could see the Arab Spring happening, because one of the first findings—and all of this is public: it's on our website, the arabyouthsurvey.com—you will see that one of the biggest demands Arab youth had is they wanted to live in a democracy. More than 90 percent wanted to live in a democracy. If only people listened to it, they'd say, "This is what's going to happen."
Jon Alterman: And yet that issue doesn't come up at all in the current survey; the current survey talks about people wanting an end to corruption, but the democracy question isn't there. Is that because Arab youth no longer care about democracy? Have they lost faith in democracy? What's happened to the democracy issue, which as you say, was so evident in early years of the survey?
Sunil John: It's interesting because when you look at trending data—and that's the importance of looking at what's happening out there in the market, in these countries—and what these young people are thinking, feeling, it's more of their hopes, their fears, their aspirations. That's what we go and check out every year. So in the early years of Arab Youth, there was a euphoria that, "There's going to be change, that we will get our rights, and we will be treated with respect, and we'll get the jobs we want," and things like that. Six years down the line, we did another survey where we asked the same question, and we said, "What are the barriers," and we ask this question every time: "what are the barriers that stop you from getting a better future for the region?"
What was number one in terms—we want to live in a democracy—fell to number seven. Because for more and more young people, the economies were struggling, there were not enough jobs. Then we realized that the young people, while they went on the street, they could see some change, but then the realities of life hit them. In that year, I still remember what our top finding was—we called it the Arab Winter—and we said, "I think young people are now focusing on the here and now, they are looking at the kitchen table issues.”
Jon Alterman: How do you decide what to drop and what to add?
Sunil John: It's a fairly painstaking task; 50 percent of the work we do is how we design our questionnaire. Roughly around this time of year is when we start preparing that questionnaire. There are certain questions which we keep, because we want to ensure that we capture the trending data, whether it's about what people think about democracy or what they think about religion, or what they think about the governments, those kinds of questions. But every year, we pick up anything that is recent and relevant. In 2019—when we designed the questionnaire for the 2020 survey—what defined the region where a couple of things. There were four countries that were going into major protests, and they were protesting against corruption in government. They were protesting leadership that is not giving them enough opportunity to be able to start with life, get proper education, access to education, access to opportunities. That's what they were protesting.
In all these four countries, it resulted in regime change. In change in government. Whether it's Lebanon, whether it's Algeria, whether it is Sudan, or the fourth country, Iraq. In Iraq, there was a new prime minister that came; in Algeria, after 20 years, Bouteflika had to resign and not contest; we had President Bashir, who was actually who's in jail right now after nearly three decades of rule; and of course, Lebanon, I think the story is pretty much known. We had change of Saad Hariri, and all the other changes-
Jon Alterman: And now we have Saad Hariri?
Sunil John: And now we have Saad Hariri back. Going back to your question, Jon, so we structure those questions, we look at protests that were linked to corruption in government, and of course to the struggling economies in those countries as well. Unemployment, as you know, Jon, the region has one of the highest youth unemployment in the world, close to 30 percent. It is not surprising when you look at this.
Jon Alterman: You talk about how youth unemployment is higher in the Middle East than almost anywhere else. One of the other places where the Middle East is exceptional is that the World Economic Forum says that the gender gap in the Middle East is higher than any region in the world. Yet your survey found that both men and women feel that the gender gap isn't that big an issue. Is that surprising to you?
Sunil John: Not at all. In fact, this finding particularly jumped at us, I think it's probably the most important finding. We bring the top 10 findings, but this one was indeed very, very surprising, because there is a stereotype—especially built up in the West—about Arab women being subjugated. I think that stereotype is led by, for example, women not being allowed to drive in Saudi Arabia, and that has changed today. But when we went out to remember, we are talking to young women in the age group of 18 to 24. Young men and women. When we saw that nearly 64 percent of the young women say that they have the same rights as men, or another 11 percent think they have more rights than men. Then of course what was surprising is when we asked a question, whether they feel that a woman working will actually benefit the family, 76 percent of the women said, "Yes." But 70 percent of the men, as well said, "Yes, a working woman benefits the family."
We see that as a very dramatic finding, because we are talking about perceptions of these young people, how they see the future. In fact, you refer to the World Economic Forum data, and besides presenting the data in our white paper that we publish on our website, we invited Mina Al-Oraibi, who is the editor of The National to write about this finding. And she sparked a discussion because she challenged the findings. And we wanted that challenge to happen because discussion is more important.
We bring a white paper so policy framers look at it. I did not dispute any of what she's saying, but it's an important part to look at. Okay, this is the facts on the ground; women probably do not have enough opportunity and are not enough in the workforce. But the perception of these young people, who are getting into life, getting into these jobs, are that there is equal opportunity. This bodes really well for policy makers in government. They're looking at a young population that has an unbelievably modern mindset. That is an extremely positive sign for governments to pick up, for businesses to pick up.
Jon Alterman: Well, and then the other possibility is that there's some problem in understanding what people think by judging from poll results. In the United States, as you know we just had an election whose results defied pollster expectations for the second cycle, there have been all sorts of debates about are people afraid to tell pollsters that they support President Trump. Certainly, in a lot of places in the Middle East, it is illegal to criticize the government. How should we think about these results in terms of people giving what they think are socially acceptable answers to somebody they don't know, versus understanding that there's a reality that the general outside public hasn't understood, but people in the Middle East do understand? How do we figure out which of those is correct?
Sunil John: So, Jon, a couple of things on our survey; first, it's conducted by the BCW group company, PSB. We use very modern techniques to be able to do these interviews. We use professional field interviewers to go across to these 17 countries, we accost people in public places, we seek their agreement, we assure them that these are confidential interviews. We ask 22 screener questions to make sure that they fall in the sample, in the right place. Then those interviews are conducted in a very, very professional manner. These are face-to-face, they are not online interviews. In terms of the reliability and the credibility of the process, it is costlier for us to run it, and remember this study is entirely funded and run by us. There are a number of people who offered sponsorships of this study, and we absolutely refuse because I think the findings would be up for questioning if that would happen, if there were any interest.
So, I'm not there to comment about polling in the United States, but the fact that we go to great lengths to make sure that what we do is properly looked at, and sometimes when the data comes from certain countries, where we question the nature of the data, it doesn't reflect the actual realities on the ground, we at times re-field that survey in that particular country or particular region. So we go to great lengths to ensure that the data is stable, and that's reliable, and we ensure that there is enough budgets and people who are able to do this.
Jon Alterman: I was struck that 100 percent of Emiratis who you surveyed approved for the way the governments responded to Covid-19. I can't speak for the Emirates, I know that there's a huge reservoir of trust that Emiratis have in their government, but I don't think you get 100 percent of Americans to agree that the earth is round. I mean, if you polled people and find 100 percent results, that to my mind would set off flashing lights about, "Is there a reason we're getting this answer that is other than what people would think?" As I say, I can't think of a single thing where you could poll Americans and get 100 percent agreement.
Sunil John: The Emiratis are very patriotic in the way they look at things. Actually, on another project, we've been looking at how the government is seen by expatriates, and by nationals as well, and we see a high amount of favorability among expatriates on what the government is doing. Sometimes some are very restrictive, there are fines for people who don't wear masks in public places, for example.
Jon Alterman: And you and I have seen tremendous change, tremendous advancement. You moved there 25 years ago, I first went there about 20 years ago, and the place has been transformed on any number of levels. I do wonder, but there is this fact that Emiratis, I think in particular—and other residents in general—feel quite constrained about expressing concerns. One thing that recently created some consternation in the rest of the region was what are sometimes called the Abraham Accords, this UAE/Israel peace agreement. I was talking with an Emirati professor who said, "I think about a third of people think it's a good idea, about a third of people think it's a bad idea, and about a third of people don't care."
But it's hard to judge that if you did a poll, I think most Emiratis would feel that in anything public facing, you would have to be very careful. As you think about understanding where Arabs in general are, where you think about Emiratis, is there a need to think about other kinds of information gathering, whether looking at social media posts, or other things to supplement traditional polling, because of perhaps an expectation that people are going to be more careful talking to pollsters?
Sunil John: The explosion of use of social media in the region is fundamentally because the young people do not believe censored state media.
Jon Alterman: And your poll is one of the best ways to judge just how central social media has become in the way young people get information. If you look at the longitudinal information, it's incredible.
Sunil John: When you look at those—YouTube, Twitter Snapchat, Pinterest—some of the largest followings in the world are in this region. That explosion happened because young people want to have a different point of view. They want to have a worldview. This shows in the way they have consumed media, I mean, look at streaming services like Netflix or Starz Play, or Disney or any of the others. Some of the highest per capita consumptions are here in this region. The young people are hungry to look at what's out there. There is a reason for that, and that is because they get a different point of view.
Jon Alterman: Sunil, what's the impact of the survey been this year?
Sunil John: This year there has been an unbelievable response. We normally come out with the results of the survey in the month of April, but because of the pandemic, we said nobody has the mind space to be able to look at the Arab Youth Survey or any of its findings. We delayed the launch of the findings until October 6. But we took the opportunity to do a Covid-19 pulse survey in August of this year. Our top finding was that nearly 40 percent of young Arabs want to emigrate from their nation. That finding jumped at us and that was the lead of our story that went across the world.
That's why we're really proud that we reached the nearly 43 nations in 14 languages and reached nearly close to a billion people in two weeks. This year the impact has been fantastic. And you can of course download our entire report if you go to arabyouthsurvey.com. There's a wonderful white paper that we published with about seven or eight good commentaries from experts. For people who don't know the region really well, if they go through the report you will understand the region and what it's all about. Because it's the largest demographic that defines the future of this region, understanding their hopes, their fears, and their aspirations, is understanding the Middle East. That's why we do the survey every year.
Jon Alterman: Sunil John, the Arab Youth Survey is a remarkable reservoir of information, of insight, of analysis, you can find a current copy arabyouthsurvey.com. Thank you very much for doing the survey and thank you very much for joining us today on Babel.