Trump's Prism: No Ally Is Good Enough

President Donald Trump’s treatment of allies and partners is more predictable than they may surmise. Trumpian statements, including his newly announced "Fair and Reciprocal Plan" outlining reciprocal tariffs, proliferate about the need for counterparts to do more and to pay their fair share.

1. Only Two Metrics Matter: There are two metrics by which President Trump measures his support for NATO and Indo-Pacific allies and partners—national defense spending as a percentage of GDP and the balance of merchandise trade with the United States. Allies and partners are “good” if they spend more than 5 percent of GDP on defense and if they register a merchandise trade deficit with the United States. Allies and partners that fail to meet this criterion are seen as “bad.” 
2. No Ally Is Good Enough: According to these criteria, there is no U.S. ally or partner in Europe or Asia that is “good” (i.e., in the upper right-hand quadrant). Even critical allies like Canada, Germany, Japan, and South Korea fall short, with high trade deficits and defense spending below the 5 percent mark. 
3. Transactional Diplomacy Is the New Normal: The result is a more transactional approach to U.S. allies that breaks profoundly with past U.S. foreign policy tradition. Those allies with trade deficits could see tariffs and other trade actions levied by the Trump administration, while those with low defense spending could see pressure for increased spending, demand for greater burden-sharing, and even the threat of reduced U.S. security commitments. 

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