TWQ: The Security Costs of Energy Independence - Spring 2010

Most  Americans accept that the United States’ dependence on foreign oil, particularly from the Middle East, is dangerous and should be reduced if  not eliminated. Although environmentalists have long called for reduced  oil consumption because of the effects of fossil fuels on the environment, two other groups now share this goal, creating an unlikely alliance. One focuses on the economic costs of U.S. dependence on foreign oil, bemoaning the wealth that flows from the United States to oil-exporting states annually (an estimated $90–150 billion) and the lost opportunity for revenue from developing and selling alternative energy sources. The other group consists of those who, particularly after the September 11 attacks, see U.S. dependence on foreign oil as a source of strategic vulnerability, as well as a burden on U.S. foreign policy. Not only is the United States’ ability to defend itself and project power contingent on a ready supply of fuel, but the country’s dependence on oil may compel leaders to spend lives and treasure to protect those foreign sources.

As a result, policy debates focus exclusively on how the United States should reduce its dependence on oil, with suggestions ranging from conservation (supported by the environmentalists) to greater domestic production (made by those who focus on security) to aggressively pursuing alternate sources of energy (emphasized by those making an economic argument, as well as environmentalists). A critical oversight in all of this, however, is that any dramatic reduction in U.S. dependence on oil will create major security concerns, not only for current oil-exporting countries and their neighbors, but also for the West.

This article does not suggest that the United States should continue to import oil at current levels; being so dependent on other states is a source of vulnerability and a lost opportunity for innovation. It is crucial to point out, however, some possible unintended consequences of a  reduction in oil dependence. How can the United States and all developed states mitigate these dangers?