Ukrainian Agriculture at Risk as the European Union's Liberalized Trade Measures Expire

Analysis by Joseph Glauber, Caitlin Welsh, and Emma Dodd

Published June 10, 2025

The expiration of wartime trade exemptions by the European Commission on Ukrainian food imports could compound challenges for Ukrainian producers, who are now facing their fourth-straight growing season in wartime conditions.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union temporarily lifted import quotas to Ukraine through the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) Regulation. As a result, Ukrainian agricultural exports to the bloc surged from below 30 percent of its total exports prior to the invasion to over 50 percent as of 2024.
This surge in exports has become a point of contention for several EU member states, particularly those bordering Ukraine, such as Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. In these countries, the rapid increase in Ukrainian imports has depressed local prices and heightened cost pressures for barge and rail services.
Reinstating prewar import quotas would likely cause immediate and considerable harm to Ukrainian producers, who have relied on the European Union for export support throughout the past three wartime growing seasons. Sustained trade access to EU markets is critical—not only for Ukraine’s economic recovery, but also for the resilience of the global food system—as Ukraine remains one of the world’s key agricultural suppliers.

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