Photo: Indian Press Information Bureau / Handout/Anadolu/Getty Images
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Washington, D.C., this week and met President Donald Trump on February 13. The two leaders reaffirmed the importance of this blossoming strategic relationship and hinted at important new ways they plan to operationalize the partnership. Most significantly, the two leaders stated their shared intention to negotiate a bilateral trade initiative (BTI) with a plan to conclude a first phase later this year. In the area of defense cooperation, there was a reaffirmation of equipment sales, exercises, and promises of relaxing U.S. export controls—including for fifth-generation fighter planes and undersea systems. The leaders also hinted that we may see significant new steps in military interoperability.
With losses by many incumbents democratically elected leaders in recent years, Prime Minister Modi is a relatively rare “known figure” to President Donald Trump. This familiarity and senior-level connectivity in recent months were on display as the visit yielded a far more aspirational agenda than would have otherwise been possible just weeks into a new administration.
The drivers for this partnership are well-known. During President Trump’s current term, India should leap over both Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy. The two nations have shared concerns about the dangerous elements of China’s rise. India is the largest source of both foreign students and skilled immigrants coming to the United States. The United States is India’s most significant economic partner—India has double the level of goods exports to the United States as it exports to any other nation. Over 54 percent of India’s exports of software and services come to the United States.
While India did not include new relaxations of trade barriers as part of the set of formal outcomes, the preemptive reduction in several tariff lines in the February 1 Indian Union Budget was noted by the Trump administration. Announcements of investments by Indian firms into the United States did feature in the joint statement.
The most significant new announcement is the intention to negotiate a BTI. With scars from negotiations at the World Trade Organization and a disjointed attempt to negotiate a Bilateral Investment Treaty in the closing months of the George W. Bush administration, there has been little interest in aspirational trade talks. Even the “mini-deal” that was nearly concluded during the last Trump administration was more of an armistice than a market-opening agreement. But India has become much more open to real trade negotiations, as evidenced by its meaningful deals with Australia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Swiss-led European Free Trade Association.
On defense cooperation, the two leaders committed to new initiatives like negotiating a reciprocal defense procurement agreement and cooperation on autonomous systems. But a less-defined portion of the joint statement potentially holds the most significance. The two sides “committed to break new ground to support and sustain the overseas deployment of the U.S. and Indian militaries in the Indo-Pacific.” This could hint at step-changes in defense cooperation as our nations expand interoperability and jointly improve regional security.
Another significant reference in the joint statement was the U.S. plan to review its policy on sharing fifth-generation fighter planes and undersea systems. President Trump specifically mentioned a potential pathway to selling F-35 fighter planes to India.
Coproduction of defense materiel remains on the agenda, which would not have been taken for granted. In particular, the leaders highlighted long-gestating cooperation on Javelin anti-tank missiles and the Stryker combat vehicle. Key defense exercises like the tri-service “Tiger Triumph” were highlighted. Pushing sales of U.S. hydrocarbons, a key feature of the first Trump administration, was reinforced in the meeting.
Civilian nuclear cooperation seems to have new life, helped by India’s recent announcement of its intention to amend the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, 2010. The INDUS-X platform to expand defense innovation cooperation is rebranded INDUS Innovation. And cooperation on “trusted and resilient supply chains” for critical and emerging technologies remains on the bilateral agenda. Space cooperation remains a key part of the agenda, buoyed by recent cooperative agreements.
The Biden administration put significant effort behind the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET). While the joint statement echoes some of the priority sector and workstreams, the iCET itself was not referenced. Not a single element of climate cooperation was included, which is a departure even from President Trump’s first term. Other important dialogues, such as the U.S.-India CEO Forum, the U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial, the U.S.-India Trade Policy Forum, and the U.S.-India Commercial Dialogue, were not referenced during the visit and remain uncertain.
Overall, this was a good start. A great deal of hard work lies ahead as most key announcements like the potential trade deal are supposed to provide concrete outcomes by year-end. Continued highly visible deportations of Indians illegally in the United States will provide damaging visuals in India. India will undoubtedly be the target of additional trade pressures in the coming months, such as when the study related to the Trump administration’s “Fair and Reciprocal Trade” policy is concluded. But when it comes to the overall U.S.-India relationship, the positive side of the ledger at the outset of President Trump’s second term is far heavier than the expected challenges.
Richard M. Rossow is senior adviser and holds the Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
