Violence Escalates as Israel Intervenes in Southern Syria

After days of escalating sectarian violence in southern Syria, Israel struck various Syrian government targets on July 16, 2025, including the ministry of defense and an area close to the presidential palace in Damascus. The strikes followed an escalating tit-for-tat between Druze militias, Bedouin tribes, and Syrian government forces, which has reportedly left at least 300 people dead, including civilians. The Syrian government and Druze leaders announced a ceasefire between them on July 16, although the situation remains tense amid concerns that violence or further interventions could erupt anew.

Q1: Why did this violence happen now?

A1: Over the past several days, tensions have been escalating in the southern governorate of Sweida, heartland of Syria’s Druze population, a minority offshoot of Islam that constitutes 3 percent of Syria’s population. This latest episode of violence was reportedly sparked by a series of tit-for-tat kidnappings and attacks between Sunni Bedouin tribesmen and local Druze militias. As the situation appeared to spiral out of control, the Damascus-based transition government sent forces to quell the violence. However, deeply distrustful of the Sunni Islamist government and mindful of earlier episodes of violence with Sunni fighters, Druze militias instead fought against them. Social media posts and other unconfirmed reporting of government forces going house-to-house and killing civilians further enflamed the situation, raising fears of a repeat of widespread atrocities committed against the Alawite community in March. Israel’s intervention further compounded the violence, initially targeting government tanks in Sweida, and then unleashing airstrikes on the ministry of defense in Damascus. Israeli officials have said their intervention was motivated by a desire to protect the Druze minority in Syria. Yet, Syria’s Druze community is divided over the question of Israeli engagement, with some elements harboring deep suspicions over Israel’s ultimate intentions.

Q2: What does this mean for Syria post-Assad?

A2: The sectarian spiral highlights the fragility of Syria’s political transition since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in 2024. It underscores several challenges that Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa must overcome if he is to stabilize the country. First, the unrest highlights the deep distrust of minority communities for the Islamist transition government and its failure to secure their buy-in for their emerging model of governance. Second, it serves as a reminder that Sharaa has yet to consolidate control and integrate Syria’s myriad armed groups, especially among minority groups such as the Druze and the Kurds who refuse to integrate their militias into the Syrian army. Third, the violence demonstrates the difficulties Sharaa faces in controlling various armed elements within his own coalition, including foreign fighters and other more radical elements who are less disciplined and more ideologically hardline. Finally, Israel’s involvement is a reflection that Syria’s transition is also vulnerable to outside interference, further complicating an already difficult endeavor.

Q3: What role has the United States played?

A3: After the Israeli strikes, the United States helped mediate the ceasefire. The Trump administration now views the Sharaa government as an important element of its Middle East strategy. The United States hopes the new Syrian government will entrench Iran’s isolation, move toward peace with Israel, and help stabilize the wider region. However, strong U.S. support (including the lifting of sanctions) has shielded President Sharaa from domestic and international pressure to reform. His government has tried to manage the transition through coercion rather than taking the necessary steps to establish a government that is inclusive of Syria’s multi-sectarian society, to advance accountability, and to lay the foundations of peace and security for all Syrians. Some regional states believe only the United States can encourage the transition government to implement the reforms they want to see before they provide greater funding for Syria’s recovery.

Q4: What are the regional implications of these incidents?

A4: Israel’s strikes on Damascus targets reverberated around the region. Many Middle Eastern states fear that ongoing U.S. support for Israel is allowing it to establish itself as the regional hegemon, with an ability to conduct strikes across the region with impunity. These fears have pushed Arab Gulf states to maintain ties with Iran to hedge against Israel’s influence.

Instability in Syria also undermines Arab Gulf states’ regional strategies. Although many of them have misgivings about the transition government’s former links with violent extremist groups, they believe that President Sharaa has the best chance of stabilizing Syria. Stability in the Middle East is critical to the success of their economic diversification plans.

Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Will Todman is the chief of staff of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS.