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We're In Transition, but To What?
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We're In Transition, but To What?
Gone are the days when the primary risks to the U.S. economy and security emanated from beyond our shores—–whether oil crises or pandemics or acts of terrorism —–or resulted from the cumulative impact of actions by millions of people over time, such as the financial crisis or climate change.
In recent weeks, we have been living through something different. The conduct of U.S. government policy itself is now the main source of risk to U.S. markets and the economy: an on-again, off-again tariff agenda with no end in sight (intraday tariff rates are actually a thing!); an aggressive and chaotic approach to rightsizing government (complete with polemics against civil servants); strong signals about a potential re-think of our long-standing alliances; and, let’s not forget, casual talk, at the highest levels of government, of annexing hemispheric neighbors.
To be clear, the problems many of these policies aim to fix—for instance, the hollowing out of the U.S. industrial base; a bloated and inefficient bureaucracy; the need to compete effectively on technology with the PRC; and the perceived one-sided nature of U.S. bilateral and multilateral engagements (something in exchange for nothing)—are real, legitimate, and longstanding. To address them effectively, a rethink of U.S. economic policy is long overdue and, indeed, has marked the past two administrations. It is important to be open-minded and have good-faith debates about new, even heterodox, approaches to domestic and international policy, especially when our economic security is at stake.
That said, over the past few weeks, U.S. policy, however ambitious, has been confusing and lacking in coherence. The ensuing policy volatility has flowed through to financial markets and, by some accounts, to the real economy and communities around the country. The private sector in the United States, as well as those in neighboring and allied economies that have long been integrated with ours, are feeling it and saying so.
We are already in transition but to what? At various points in history, Americans have been willing to make sacrifices in service of national goals. I’d venture that today many would be willing to suffer short-term pain for a credible and compelling national goal—for example, our long-term prosperity, economic security, or technology dominance—provided that the goal and the game plan are coherent.
That begs several questions. What’s the desired end-state of the current policy agenda in terms of the kind of economy we want for ourselves and future generations? Do the current set of policies put us on that critical path? Are we meeting the high bar established over at least 80 years, possibly a century, for economic policy governance—from communicating goals to design to execution?
For many (myself included), the most compelling version of the goal and game plan would be to leverage our strengths—economic dynamism and technology leadership—that are essential to long-term productivity growth and opportunity for the vast majority of Americans. There is much in the current administration’s policy agenda that could potentially hit the mark—its focus on unleashing innovation on AI and chips, delivering on the massive energy needs of a U.S. data center build-out, ensuring secure and modern digital infrastructure, attracting investment in industries of the future, and more. But given the global nature of technology innovation, this endeavor must necessarily involve allies and partners, and potentially a floor in the relationship with China.
It remains to be seen if the Trump administration’s transactional approach in foreign affairs can deliver and, importantly, if it can effectively traverse—with the American people in tow—the transition period. In the conduct of public policy, like the functioning of markets, there are corrections, and we can hold out hope that the coming weeks and months will offer opportunities for just that.
Our group of scholars is tracking these topics and more. Through our research, podcasts, and convenings, we hope to offer practical solutions to the problems facing long-term U.S. technology competitiveness. At the same time, our team is paying close attention to more immediate opportunities and risks—from prospects for a Trump-Xi deal to the implications of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Ukraine.
- Navin Girishankar, President, Economic Security and Technology Department
Betting on America: Winning the Global Tech Race
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Photo: iLab/CSIS
EST is pleased to launch Betting on America, a new podcast where Navin Girishankar joins business and government leaders to understand the risks and rewards of investing in the industries and technologies of the future. Listen to the first two episodes below, or wherever you get your podcasts!
A Tech Power Playbook for the U.S. featuring Sen. Todd Young
Senator Todd Young (R-IN) joins the podcast to discuss a ‘tech power playbook’ for the United States, including investments in chipmaking and biotech, tech diplomacy abroad, and more.
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Why Quantum is a Must-Win Tech featuring Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) discusses strategies and policies–from strategic investment, workforce, and export controls–the U.S. needs to take the pole position across advanced technologies.
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Tariffs and Trade
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Photo: FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images
What is up with the Tariff Man: A Pause for Tariffs on Canada and Mexico
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, H. Andrew Schwartz, Bill Reinsch, and Scott Miller discuss the updates to tariffs on Canada and Mexico, bills in Congress aiming to limit presidential authority, and the trade deficit.
The United States’ Illiberal Turn Recasts a Potential Deal with China
Scott Kennedy analyzes how the Trump administration’s embrace of an illiberal foreign policy affects the likelihood and impact of a potential deal between the two countries.
How Will New Tariffs Impact U.S. Industries and Consumers?
Philip Luck breaks down the impact tariffs on Canada and Mexico could impact the U.S. economy, businesses, and consumers.
Previewing Transatlantic Trade Turmoil
Ilaria Mazzocco joins the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program to examine recent economic proposals floated by the Trump administration.
U.S.-Canada Energy Relations
Joseph Majkut and Quill Robinson sit down with Danielle Smith, Premier of Alberta, to discuss the province's important position in North American energy production.
Full Stack Leadership of AI
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Photo: Just_Super/GETTY IMAGES
Securing Full Stack U.S. Leadership in AI
The United States leads in AI, but staying ahead requires scaling compute, energy, and capital. This commentary from Navin Girishankar, Joseph Majkut, and other EST scholars previews our new research on AI infrastructure, domestic chip production, and energy security to ensure long-term competitiveness.
The Electricity Supply Bottleneck on U.S. AI Dominance ,br/> Cy McGeady, Vivian Lee, and Shanu Mathew discuss the state of AI electricity demand, the implications of DeepSeek, prospects for nuclear, and more.
The U.S. Cannot Take Chip Design Leadership for Granted
In the face of the Chinese challenge, the U.S. cannot afford to take a business-as-usual approach to chip design leadership, write Sujai Shivakumar, Charles Wessner, an Tom Howell.
DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls, and the Future of the U.S.-China AI Race
In Gregory C. Allen’s latest report, he examines DeepSeek’s origins, achievements, and geopolitical impact, highlighting its implications for AI and semiconductor export controls.
Delving into the Dangers of DeepSeek
As President Trump reenvisions U.S. AI leadership, DeepSeek presents cyber risks that may affect the administration’s calculus of balancing innovation and security, write Matthew Pearl, Julia Brock, and Anoosh Kumar.
Digital Infrastructure
Winning the 5G Race While Building the United States’ Golden Dome
Matthew Pearl and Clete Johnson examine the myths surrounding spectrum allocation and advocates for mutually beneficial military and commercial technology innovation.
Broadband Sourcing Requirements and U.S. Competitiveness
Evan Brown and Thibault Denamiel examine broadband deployment in the IIJA and recommend ways to improve Buy America tools for U.S. economic security.
Protecting the Backbone of the Internet
Erin Murphy and H. Andrew Schwartz discuss why subsea cables are so important to global security and how they impact competition with China.
Stepping Up on Spectrum
Matthew Pearl breaks down how spectrum impacts national security, actions the United States can take to restore U.S spectrum leadership, spectrum’s impact on AI innovation.
War in Ukraine
Carrots, Sticks, and Sledgehammers
President Trump has clearly signaled a desire for lower oil prices, writes Clay Seigle. What are the president's options for doing so?
Ukraine's AI-Enabled Autonomous Warfare
Although fully autonomous warfare remains an aspiration, writes Kate Bondar, significant progress has already been made in partial autonomy.
How Sanctions Have Reshaped Russia’s Future
As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, Philip Luck analyzes how broad Western sanctions on Russia have altered its economic landscape.
Breaking Down the U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal
Our colleagues Gracelin Baskarin and Meredith Schwartz examine the U.S. and Ukraine's landmark agreement to jointly invest in Ukraine's critical minerals.
Executive Education: Trade Policy with the Trade Guys
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Master the intricacies of U.S. trade policy with guidance from Bill Reinsch and Scott Miller, hosts of The Trade Guys podcast. Held in-person and virtually from May 8-9, this seminar equips professionals with key insights into trade laws, economic policy, and the politics shaping global markets.
