Photo: Andrew Lee/U.S. Air Force via Getty Images
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India arrived in Washington on June 26 for his first visit to the United States during Donald Trump’s presidency. Late last week, news began spreading that the United States was considering selling 22 unmanned, unarmed, long-range maritime surveillance aircraft to India. The unmanned aerial systems (UAS) are the MQ-9B Sea Guardian, a variant of a system used by the U.S. military and Department of Homeland Security. The platforms would greatly increase India’s ability to monitor the Indian Ocean—a vital thoroughfare for international trade and important for India’s security.
In a bilateral relationship where misaligned expectations and misunderstood messages can have lingering negative impact, it is important to be clear about what has happened and what remains to be done so that leaders in either Delhi or Washington do not allow hopes or assumptions to outpace reality.
Q1: Why is this offer important?
A1: Should the United States and India reach agreement on the Sea Guardian sale, it could be the first time the United States sold a category 1 UAS to a non-ally. Category 1 UAS are long-range, large-payload platforms, as defined by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Both the United States and India are members of the MTCR, which prohibits participating countries from sharing advanced missile technology (which is interpreted to include UAS) with nonmembers. Further, it admonishes participants to start from the principle of “a strong presumption of denial” for sharing such technologies even with other participating states.
Q2: What happens next?
A2: The president’s announcement is an important first step, but it is only the first step. It opens the door for India to consider the platform and, if it is interested, to begin negotiations with the United States. In many cases, these negotiations—even when successful—can take more than a year. Following negotiations, there will be a congressional notification period in which members of Congress can register concerns. At present, it looks unlikely that congressional notification will result in any problems, but a differently structured agreement or a major shift in the international political landscape could alter the political environment on Capitol Hill.
Q3: Why is this in the U.S. interest?
A3: The United States and India share common interests in preserving free and open access to the seas, as well as reducing the risks of piracy or other sea-borne criminality. The United States has been expanding maritime cooperation for a number of years. Headline elements currently include the naval exercise Malabar and India’s acquisition (and use) of U.S.-made P-8 maritime patrol aircraft. Adding unmanned systems for maritime surveillance to U.S.-India cooperation would be an important next step.
John Schaus is a fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
Critical Questions is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).
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Photo credit: Andrew Lee/U.S. Air Force via Getty Images
