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Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

Thinking Outside the Toolbox

The United States can be a better partner to developing countries by using non-grant tools to help unlock private capital and build up financial sectors, putting nations on a path toward self-sufficiency and away from dependency on China.

Report by Daniel F. Runde, Rafael Romeu, and Austin Hardman — December 13, 2024

Cyber Scamming Goes Global: Sourcing Forced Labor for Fraud Factories

People from over 100 countries have been trafficked to Southeast Asia’s fraud factories. These victims fail to conform to a single profile, so survivors often face insufficient or inappropriate law enforcement responses. 

Critical Questions by Lauren Burke Preputnik, Julia Dickson, Aly Senko, and Andrew Friedman — December 12, 2024

A New Normal?: Navigating Japan’s Shifting Political Currents

As Japan faces a turbulent political landscape, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru navigates the challenges of leading a minority government. Yuko Nakano of the CSIS Japan Chair analyzes election results and potential scenarios shaping the nation’s political future. 

Commentary by Yuko Nakano — December 12, 2024

What Role Can Turkey Play in Ukraine Negotiations?

Should Trump want to pursue a diplomatic track on the war, Turkey can serve as a critical mediator in the Black Sea region, leveraging its NATO membership and ties to Ukraine and Russia.

Commentary by Yasir Atalan — December 12, 2024

Strengthening Resilience in Taiwan

Taiwan has taken important steps to strengthen resilience over the last several years. However, the threat it faces is significant, and it falls short in many important dimensions of resilience.

Report by Daniel Byman, Seth G. Jones, and Jude Blanchette — December 11, 2024

Winning the Peace Means Winning the Information War

Negotiations for peace in Ukraine will face a storm of zeros and ones. Critics and bots will stir anger on social media, amplifying extremes of the debate. Zelenskyy should see this as a distraction and remain focused.

Commentary by Emily Harding and Julia Dickson — December 11, 2024