Analysis

Cyber espionage has been one of the keys to China’s growth. The United States has been the primary target, but it is not alone in being targeted. As China’s growth slows, it may increase its already high level of spying and it will use any tool, including, including exploiting opportunities created by transnational supply chains for software, telecommunications, and internet applications.

Competition with China need not turn to conflict, but it will almost certainly continue to see a network of operatives linked to the CCP wage a systematic cyber espionage campaign designed to gain an intelligence advantage and steal intellectual property. Put simply, China is trying to cheat its way to the top of key industries in the 21st century.

During the Cold War, the United States saw the individual bilateral alliances with Korea and Japan as a strategic, trilateral whole when it came to defense and deterrence. Today, the three allies are instrumental to shaping a strategic environment in which to manage China’s rise, and they are critical to consolidating supply chains in emerging technologies.

For many, Russia’s actions in Ukraine crystallized a fundamental threat to human rights and humanitarian principles. However, Russia’s tactics were most clearly distilled during the Syrian conflict. In Syria, the Assad regime and Russia presented a successful blueprint for how to exploit multilateral institutions and humanitarian assistance.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) will be a critical capability for the nation going forward and central to integrated deterrence campaigns and warfighting. These capabilities rely not just on lines of code, but crucial to this endeavor is putting in place the right people, bureaucracy and data infrastructure that turns technology into strategic advantage.

There is no inherent trade-off between mitigating AI risks and pursuing the benefits of increased adoption. We can pursue both goals simultaneously. AI regulation and frameworks must be well balanced, ethically designed, and part of an internationally interoperable framework.

China’s initiatives targeting the electric vehicle industry over the past 15 years are one of the most successful cases of industrial policy in the country’s recent history. Growing EV exports from China create a dilemma for U.S. policymakers: production in China can benefit consumers and enable the electrification of the transportation sector, but it could undermine domestic job creation and potentially lead to de-industrialization.

Since the start of the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there have been considerable efforts by Russia to quicken and deepen its efforts across the Africa. By targeting military, political and business elites, Russia is capable of exerting country-wide and even regional influence while keeping largely secret the details of its relationships.

While Brazil is well placed to lead international efforts to combat climate change, doing so will meet the country’s domestic realities and encounter headwinds. Understanding the full picture of deforestation is critical to developing a multifaceted approach to partner effectively with Brazil.

The democratic, relatively prosperous and largely pro-U.S. nature of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has been a strategic asset for the United States for decades. Yet, the region today is at a tipping point; there is a significant risk that it could become a liability in strategic competition with China and to a lesser extent Russia in the next decade.