An estimated 70,000 opposition militants with legitimate grievances against the Assad regime are positioned for a low-level insurgency that could last for years to come. Moreover, an estimated 12 million displaced Syrians offer a potential pool of recruits for this...
July 26, 2018
| Seth G. JonesIt would be unnecessarily risky for the United States to move too quickly away from countering terrorists while the threat is still high, allowing groups and networks to resurge.
An escalating war has the potential to cause significant economic damage, lead to high numbers of civilian casualties and internally displaced persons, and involve more countries in the region than did the 2006 Lebanon War.
April 4, 2018
| Seth G. Jones, Maxwell B. MarkusenAs the Islamic State’s control of territory in Iraq, Syria, and other countries declines, al Qaeda has attempted to resurge and reposition itself at the center of global Salafi-jihadist activity.
The finger pointing about transparency shouldn’t hide the fact that there is already a lot of information to assess the state of the war. The bigger challenge is understanding which indicators are most important to objectively collect, analyze, and—yes—even debate.
It’s no small secret that Russian-speaking militants from Central Asia are
a critical element of today’s Salafi-jihadi terror threat. Religious
repression, poor governance, economic hardship, political violence, and the
siren call of ISIS all helped...
Those who follow the conflict in Syria are well aware that thousands of citizens and residents of the Russian Federation joined ISIS, al-Nusra, and other violent jihadi groups fighting to overthrow Bashar alAssad’s government in Syria. As we discuss in a recent report...