Analysis

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Critical Questions
Escaping the Graveyard of Empires? U.S. Options in Afghanistan
January 26, 2021 | Seth G. Jones The Biden administration faces a difficult decision in how it will move forward in Afghanistan, particularly after the Trump administration’s drawdown. While U.S. forces have been fighting there for two decades, a withdrawal at this point could have disastrous effects.

Report
Moscow’s War in Syria
May 12, 2020 | Seth G. Jones, Nicholas Harrington The Transnational Threats Project assesses Russia's military and diplomatic campaign in Syria, the largest and most significant Russian out-of-area operation since the end of the Cold War.

Report
Beyond Baghdadi: The Next Wave of Jihadist Violence
November 4, 2019 | Seth G. Jones CSIS’s Seth Jones explains the death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi—and the appointment of his replacement, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi—is unlikely to have a long-term impact on an increasingly decentralized jihadist movement.

Report
Iran’s Threat to Saudi Critical Infrastructure: The Implications of U.S.-Iranian Escalation
August 5, 2019 | Seth G. Jones, Nicholas Harrington, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. A month ago, CSIS's Transnational Threats Project assessed the Iranian threat to Saudi critical infrastructure. In light of recent strikes on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, this brief provides key insights into the strategic dynamics in the Persian Gulf.

Report
Dangerous Liaisons: Russian Cooperation with Iran in Syria
July 16, 2019 | Seth G. Jones, Nicholas Harrington, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. The CSIS Transnational Threats Project’s analysis of satellite imagery of T-4 Airbase in Syria indicates that preventing further Iranian expansion in the Middle East will be difficult without increasing pressure on Moscow.

Report
The United States’ Soft War with Iran
June 11, 2019 | Seth G. Jones New analysis from the CSIS Transnational Threats Project examines Iran's attempts to export soft power and compete ideologically with the United States as well as the weaknesses of its "soft war" strategy.

Commentary
Case Studies in Iranian Expansion Across the Middle East: El Boqaa Training Facility, Lebanon
May 15, 2019 | Seth G. Jones, Nicholas Harrington, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. In an effort to better understand Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force and broader Iranian activities, new analysis by CSIS’ Transnational Threats Program examines satellite imagery of the El Boqaa training facility in Lebanon.

Commentary
Case Studies in Iranian Expansion Across the Middle East: Imam Ali Training Facility, Iran
May 15, 2019 | Seth G. Jones, Nicholas Harrington, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. In an effort to better understand Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force and broader Iranian activities, new analysis by CSIS’ Transnational Threats Program examines satellite imagery of the Imam Ali training facility in Iran.

Report
Russian Meddling in the United States: The Historical Context of the Mueller Report
March 27, 2019 | Seth G. Jones In light of the Mueller report’s finding that Russian intelligence conducted an aggressive campaign to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election, CSIS’s Seth Jones explains how Moscow has long used “active measures” to manipulate U.S. elections.

Commentary
The New Zealand Attack and the Global Challenge of Far-Right Extremism
March 15, 2019 | Seth G. Jones

Far-right attacks have increased because of immigration fears, far-right utilization of social media, and the inter-connectedness of extremist networks around the globe.

Report
War by Proxy: Iran’s Growing Footprint in the Middle East
March 11, 2019 | Seth G. Jones

New analysis by CSIS’s Seth Jones based in part on commercially available satellite imagery shows that the footprint of the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force is growing in the Middle East.

Report
From the IRA to the Islamic State: The Evolving Terrorism Threat in Europe
December 19, 2018 | Seth G. Jones Europe faces a significant threat from terrorism, particularly from Islamic extremists and far-right groups. This report takes a renewed look at Europe and compiles new data on the threat to Europe.

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